Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
925 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into this weekend. Perhaps some decrease
in coverage will occur around Thursday. Expect hotter than average
daytime temperatures through Thursday followed by moderating
temperatures by early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Radar in the past hour depicted a few light showers
over the mountains just east of Tucson. Otherwise debris cloudiness
was over the area while south of the border there was a decaying MCS
NW of Hermosillo. The 12z 500 mb chart has two upper high centers,
one over central NM with the second one near Las Vegas. 12z Tucson
sounding had PW value of 1.54" with a chopped up wind profile.

Both 12z NAM & GFS move the central NM high center W over SE AZ this
afternoon with thunderstorm activity relegated to the higher terrain
and also along the international border. By this evening, NE flow
aloft increases a bit across the area that will allow a few mountain
storms to move into the valleys with outflow interactions developing
additional valley storms. Overall a low grade monsoon type day.
Above normal highs to continue.


Another chance of thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and into
this evening with the best chances being near the mountains and
along the border including KOLS/KDUG terminals. Brief wind gusts to
45 kts and MVFR conditions are possible with the stronger TSRA.
Otherwise, sfc wind mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will occur into this weekend. Outside of
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be
westerly to northwesterly at less than 15 mph during the afternoons,
becoming light and terrain driven overnight.





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