Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 161605 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SAT AUG 16 2014

CORRECTED 2ND PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z SOUNDING AT KTUS SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.67 INCHES. MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BTWN 10 AND 20
KFT AND NORTHEAST 15-20 KTS AT 20-25 KFT. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
THAN FRIDAY AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND THE RAINFALL OF RECENT DAYS...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
PROMINENT CONCERN.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE RIM OF AZ AND NM WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
AND MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF INITIATION STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND WESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST. THE REST OF THE NUMBERS LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME FOR THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS WILL DISSIPATE BY 19Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD AND FAVOR LOCALES WEST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS LATER TONIGHT. THE BULK OF -TSRA/-SHRA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO END AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT 5-10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOLLOWED BY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL EXHIBIT
NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS NEAR LAS
VEGAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL ELEVATED WITH VALUES IN THE 1.30" TO
1.50" RANGE. HOWEVER WILL SEE THESE VALUES GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND. SO EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH RESPECTS TO WHERE
THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST WILL SET UP. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR CLIMO POPS. DAILY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DROZD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON












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