Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280937
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OUT IN THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS
MORNING OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE. SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND SINCE THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE E-SE...STORMS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN BETWEEN THE
UOFA WRF RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS WITH NAM MUCH STRONGER WITH STORMS
VERSUS THE GFS. ONCE AGAIN MAIN IMPACT THREATS ARE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WITH ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS...PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
WITH UPPER HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER UTAH. UPPER HIGH CENTER
SHIFTS WEST OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS GENERALLY CENTERED
THERE THRU THE UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AS THE AREA WORKS ON RECYCLED
MOISTURE.

HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY 28/16Z. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND AREAS OF BLDU SUNDAY 28/21Z-29/04Z. SFC WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
IN A GENERALLY EAST TO WEST FLOW REGIME FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN WINDS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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