Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 191616
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
916 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL SOME AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG SHOWING UP
CLEARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SUCH AS THE SANTA CRUZ...SAN PEDRO...UPPER GILA AND SAN
SIMON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT NOGALES...SAFFORD AND DOUGLAS
INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES ARE BOUNCING AROUND FROM ABOUT 1/4SM TO
2SM. AS SOLAR INSOLATION INCREASES...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO
BURN OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE
AFTER 11 AM.

IN THE LARGER SCALE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN
THE MOST PRONE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT THIS MIGHT BE MITIGATED
BY SOME CIRROFORM CLOUDS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
OTHER THEN SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS VALUES AS RIDGING ALOFT IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK...TROUGHING WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE WESTERN US.
THE LATEST TRENDS KEEP THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE IMPACTS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH MOSTLY SOME INCREASED WIND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KTUS TO KOLS
AND EASTWARD TO KDUG TO KSAD SHOULD LIFT OR BURN OFF BY 19/17Z.
EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AFT 20/09Z
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD NOT NEARLY AS PREVALENT AS IT WAS THIS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SAFFORD. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WHICH MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD





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