Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO START TODAY WITH THE ACTIVITY
BEGINNING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM AS WELL AS
EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WAS
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE FIRST WARNING OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY NEAR
THE DOUGLAS AREA BASED ON RADAR SIGNATURES. HOWEVER...NO `GROUND
TRUTH` REPORTS WERE RECEIVED WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM. AS THE
STORMS DROPPED DOWN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GREENLEE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED AND WE DID RECEIVE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AT THE
GREENLEE COUNTY AIRPORT SOUTH OF CLIFTON...A 58 MPH GUST AT THE
GUTHRIE RAWS (REMOTE AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION)...AND 56 MPH AT THE
SAFFORD AIRPORT. IN ADDITION...SOME DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE TOWN OF
PIMA IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WHEN THE WINDS DID DAMAGE TO A
RAILROAD CROSSING ARM...AND TREES FELL ON TOP OF A FENCE.

AS THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FELL
OVER THE GILA RIVER VALLEY...SO A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...BUT HAS SINCE BEEN CANCELLED.

AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS
OF COCHISE COUNTY AND ARE HEADED WEST. NUMEROUS STORMS ALSO CONTINUE
WELL SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
SONORA...MAINLY SOUTH OF CANANEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST. THE INHERITED POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE BEST THREAT SOUTH
OF TUCSON TOWARD NOGALES AND OVER COCHISE COUNTY.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S AT SAFFORD...WHERE THEY RECEIVED COOLING RAIN...TO THE
MID 90S AT TUCSON WHERE WE DID NOT. AT ANY RATE...THESE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE READINGS DO NOT REFLECT THE SHORT TERM HOURLY
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...SO WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAKE SURE THE MOST
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD -TSRA/ -SHRA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AT 8-10K FT AGL
THRU TONIGHT...MAINLY S AND NE OF KTUS... SPREADING WEST OVERNIGHT
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE FINALLY BRING THE EASTERLY IMPULSE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD HELP COOK UP A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUNDAY.

ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY HIGH CONSOLIDATION OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE STATE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO TAMP DOWN
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT AND CONFINE THEM TO MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHILE HEATING THINGS UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/BROST





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