Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270401
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING
INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EWD THRU NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AND ALLOW
FOR ONE MORE DAY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
EXPECT A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER...WHICH WILL DROP SWD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME
GUSTY SW WINDS TO OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESP NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME AS IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. THE COOL-DOWN WILL THEN
BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS THINGS GET PRETTY INTERESTING FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS APPROACHING WINTER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 20K
FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KDUG AND KALK TERMINALS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE THE
LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE...ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY...
WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. STRONGER SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...THOSE CHANCES APPEARED TO BE RATHER SLIM.
THUS...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWED SOME DELAY
IN A STORM THAT WILL BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE
GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN ADVANCE OF IT. MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND THE THROUGH
ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL BE ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECONDARY..BUT
WEAKER...SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY BRINGING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE AROUND 2 FEET OF FRESH SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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