Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 100346
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
846 PM MST Mon Oct 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Relatively dry conditions will prevail through the end
of the work week. A weather system passing north of the area will
bring gusty winds along with cooler daytime temperatures again
Tuesday. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well
above average later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The high temperature dipped below 90 at the Tucson
International Airport for the first time since September 27. Area
wide temperatures were about average to a degree or two below
average. There was a slight uptick in moisture across the CWA with
the 10/00z sounding measuring 0.50 in of PWAT, which is double
yesterday`s 00z sounding. This manifested itself in the form of
small, vertically challenged, cumulus clouds in Santa Cruz County
and southern Cochise County. A few clouds are still hanging around
the Douglas area, but expect clear skies later tonight and tomorrow
area wide. The surface pressure gradient will tighten tomorrow
morning leading to gusty winds out of the east/southeast through mid-
afternoon, then decreasing into the evening. Looking aloft, an upper
level low is currently situated over northern New Mexico and will
move into the central plains over the next day leaving Arizona in
dry southwesterly flow. For more details please see the previous
discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 11/06Z.
FEW clouds 10-12k ft AGL near KDUG for the next couple hours,
becoming SKC area-wide tonight through the end of the period. SFC
wind terrain driven overnight with winds below 10 kts. Winds pick up
in the morning through the afternoon out of the east/southeast at 10-
14 kts with gusts up to 22 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions persist through the majority of
the week, with a slight chance of storms developing in the southeast
corner of Cochise County on Saturday. Daytime temperatures hold
generally within a few degrees of normal. Strongest winds will be in
the eastern portion of the state for the next couple days. Starting
tomorrow morning winds will shift to the east/southeast with gusts
slightly above 15 mph possible through late afternoon. Speeds then
decrease on Wednesday, trending back southwesterly later in the week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A system passing north of the area was producing
some gusty winds this afternoon with speeds up to 30 to 35 mph. A
cooler air mass was also filtering into the region in association
with this system. Afternoon temperatures were running about 4 to 8
degrees cooler than what was observed yesterday at the same time.
Expect similar afternoon temperature Tuesday. The area will be in
between systems through at least Thursday for more dry conditions
with highs rebounding to above normal readings. Thereafter, models
deepen a low pressure trough over the western United States with
some hint of moisture moving into extreme southeast Arizona by
Saturday. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding rain chances next
weekend though.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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