Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENE ACROSS SEAZ EARLY THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH NO RETURNS EVIDENT ON KEMX RADAR. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PUSHING SWD INTO THIS CWA FROM THE DECAYING
COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NRN AZ...AND ALSO A FEW CLOUDS POPPING UP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR
PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. 02/09Z SFC PLOTS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FROM ERN NEVADA TO ERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
MEANS A TRANSITION IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER AZ FROM AN ELY
DIRECTION TO A SLY DIRECTION. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW
ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAKENING STORM
LEVEL FLOW.

CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING TODAY TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR STORMS IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON AND
ALSO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW
DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS SETUP WILL FEED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE WITH
SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SWLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N/126W...MOVES
NWD AND CONSOLIDATES OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT EWD OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL FEED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO AZ...CAUSING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND DURATION OF THIS LULL...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THESE
DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH PERHAPS A 100 OR TWO...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
SCTD AREAS OF CLOUDS AROUND 12KFT AGL OTRW CLR THRU 02/17Z. BTWN
02/17Z AND 03/03Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
AND MVFR CONDS NR STRONGEST STORMS. SFC WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12
KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NW-SE ORIENTED VLYS
WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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