Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 290015
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
515 PM MST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL AREAS FROM THE BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY EXCEPT SC PINAL COUNTY.  CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SW GRAHAM
COUNTY ARE MOVING SW. OUTFLOWS COULD STILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FARTHER WEST...WHICH IN TURN...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT A HIGH
PROBABILITY...COULD STILL PRODUCE BLOWING DUST IN I-10 CORRIDOR OF
SC PINAL COUNTY.  COORDINATED WITH WFO TO EXTEND ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA THROUGH 7 PM. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA EXISTS EAST AND
SOUTH OF KTUS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE BULK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD OCCUR WEST OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
ZONE 152 EXPECTED TO HAVE THE LEAST COVERAGE. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ONGOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY SWWD ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALSO OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA SOUTHWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY INTO CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/
GRAHAM COUNTIES NE OF TUCSON. MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WAS TO
THE WEST AROUND 20-25 KTS.

THE 28/12Z UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM HAS DEPICTED THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS NICELY AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WIND
GUSTS THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO
OCCUR GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY MOIST PRECIP WATER VALUES. ASSUMING THE
UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM TO BE REALITY...THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 10 PM MST OR SO. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
FOR GENERALLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON WWD...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS.

FOR MON...APPEARS THAT THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR
LATER VERSUS TODAY...AND THE FAVORED AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON SEVERAL 28/12Z NWP
SOLUTIONS...THE SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE LESS
VERSUS TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND PERHAPS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM
MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ505.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD



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