Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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471
FXUS65 KTWC 161610
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
910 AM MST Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A dry westerly flow will shut down precipitation
chances into Friday. A moisture increase from the south will bring
isolated to scattered thunderstorms this weekend into early next
week. Temperatures will be at or slightly above average Thursday
into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicated clear skies across
southeast Arizona this morning. This morning`s 16/12z RAOB
advertised westerly flow with a dry-for-August PWAT of 0.61 inches.
Look for clear skies or perhaps a few mountain cumulus to continue
into this afternoon with mainly light surface winds. High
temperatures will top out near normal as well. No updates needed to
the forecast this morning. Please see the remaining sections for
additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/18Z.
Mainly SKC today with only a few Cu near the mountains. Normal
diurnal wind trends generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dy westerly flow aloft will shut down precipitation
chances into Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will then return this weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be
terrain driven and less than 15 mph apart from any thunderstorms
outflows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Models advertise a drier westerly flow pattern
over the region through at least Friday. Thereafter, a more
favorable flow pattern will bring an increase moisture. This more
favorable flow and moisture increase will translate to an upswing in
thunderstorm activity, especially Sunday into early next week.
Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain near normal with a
slight increase in readings above normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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