Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 111544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
844 AM MST Wed Oct 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Relatively dry conditions will prevail into next
week. Locally gusty east winds will diminish today.
Otherwise, high pressure in control with above normal daytime
temperatures into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Dry west to southwesterly flow aloft across southeast
Arizona this morning with clear skies across this forecast area and
just a few cirroform clouds to our north and west. In the lower
levels, easterly flow continues with some breezes particularly in
the Tucson Metro this morning. However, as the gradient slackens and
deep layer mixing of lighter winds aloft proceed through the day,
the breezes will diminish this afternoon. Well above normal
temperatures will continue today with highs about 7 to 10 degrees
above normal.

The larger scale flow pattern into this weekend troughiness across
the northwest and strong ridging across the southeast with our
forecast area between these system with continued west to
southwesterly flow. Moisture won`t be too far away across Chihuahua,
west Texas and and southern New Mexico but our area should remain
dry with some cumulus build-ups in the higher terrain near the New
Mexico border. Stronger ridging aloft with higher heights will build
across Sonora and extend into Arizona Sunday into early next week.
We`re still watching for a bit of moisture that could sneak in
from the south and east on the tail end of a backdoor cold front
Monday and Tuesday but guidance has slightly backed off this idea
over the last 24 hours. Otherwise, the main story heading into next
week will be continued above normal temperatures with highs about 4
to 8 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 12/18Z.
Clear skies this morning, then a few clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL
especially east of KTUS this afternoon and evening. Surface wind
this morning ely/sely 5-15 kts with a few higher gusts through
about 11/18z. Surface wind this afternoon/evening sly/swly less than
12 kts becoming more sely overnight. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal daytime
temperatures into early next week. There are some indications that a
few thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon and evening and perhaps
again early next week across far southeast sections. However,
forecast confidence at this time is too low to depict in the
official forecast. Expect locally gusty east winds this morning,
then normal diurnal trends mainly less than 15 mph this afternoon
and into the weekend.






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