Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280434
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MORE WIND
AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL TONIGHT THEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AFT
28/17Z...MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING SURFACE WIND AFT
28/14Z...THEN SURFACE WIND SWLY/WLY 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30-45 KTS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SURFACE
WIND WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KDUG...KALK AND KFHU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 151 AND MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA THE
27/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THUR WHILE MOVING EWD
ACROSSNRN ARIZONA. A VERY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT AROUND THE
SRNPERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDYCONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THUR EVENING.
AWIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY
FORLOCALES EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS
PRODUCTPHXNPWTWC /WMO HEADER WWUS75 KTWC/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL. THE
STRONGAND GUSTY MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
DUSTESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE WILLCOX PLAYA THUR AFTERNOON
ANDEARLY THUR EVENING.

ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS
FORECAST AREA THUR...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL JUSTIFY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THUR EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST-TO-
NORTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THUR NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRI AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF GRAHAM/NRN
GREENLEE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN ARIZONA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUN...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS NRN ARIZONA BY SUN EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT-MON. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT-WED IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-10 DEGS COOLER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON THE LOCATION. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI FROM TUCSON EWD...BUT HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER VERSUS THUR ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. WARMER TEMPS
WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR COOLING SUN.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR MON FOLLOWED BY MUCH
WARMER TEMPS NEXT TUE-WED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE
      SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF AZZ151 AND MUCH OF AZZ152.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ507>509-
      511>513.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ


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