Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 200400
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 PM MST THU MAY 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures Friday.
Low pressure will return this weekend resulting in breezy to windy
conditions along with slightly cooler temperatures. Below normal
temperatures will persist through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A lull in the wind today as the area was in between
weather systems. There were some isolated showers and thunderstorms
in the white mountains late this afternoon. They have since
dissipated thus ran an update earlier to remove them from the
forecast for the overnight period. Highs today ran 2 to 6 degrees
warmer than Wednesday under short wave ridging aloft.

Main forecast story for Friday and this weekend is the return to
breezy to windy conditions as an upper level trof settles over the
western CONUS. This will result in dust and elevated fire weather
concerns. Highs a few degrees warmer Friday before cooling a bit
over the weekend. Outside of the wind, can`t complain for May.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
Few-sct clouds 8-10k ft otherwise clear. Wind becoming variable less
than 10 kts overnight then becoming SW 10-15 kts xcpt to 20 kts west
of KTUS Friday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop
Friday and continue through this weekend into early next week as a
low pressure system deepens northwest of the area. Wind speeds will
approach critical levels for portions of the area generally from
Tucson westward Friday and Saturday, then shifting into eastern
areas on Sunday. Breezy winds to continue Monday and Tuesday but
remaining below critical thresholds. Minimum relative humidity
values will generally be in the 10 to 15 percent range for valley
locations Friday through Sunday and 20 to 25 percent across the
mountains. Even lower minimum relative humidity values early next
week.

For Friday and Saturday some areas west of Sells in zone 150 will
approach and potentially exceed critical thresholds for an hour or
two but due to the marginal nature of the event both days and
marginal fuels in that region will hold off on any fire weather
headlines.

Then the focus will shift east Sunday onward to the southern
portions of zones 151 and 152 but again will hold off on any watches
at this time.  Cerniglia

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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