Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 241613 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BATCH OF HIGH
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM GILA COUNTY SW INTO THE NRN GULF OF CA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO MONDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA...THAT
WILL PASS THRU THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AT OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TODAY. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH AMPLIFIES OFF THE
WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AND BE OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LATE MARCH WARMTH IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING TUCSON. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
OCNL PDS OF CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THRU WED. SFC WNDS MOSTLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW ELEVATED W/NW AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS PSBL THIS AFTN MAINLY E OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

LOCATION                   MARCH 28TH      MARCH 29TH
TUCSON INTNL AIRPORT       91 IN 1943      91 IN 1943
AJO                        97 IN 1988      93 IN 1943
PICACHO PEAK               92 IN 1988      93 IN 2004
NOGALES                    84 IN 1986      85 IN 1967
SAFFORD                    91 IN 1988      89 IN 1953
SIERRA VISTA               82 IN 1967      83 IN 2012
TOMBSTONE                  91 IN 1917      86 IN 1943
WILLCOX                    89 IN 1916      88 IN 1916
DOUGLAS                    85 IN 2012      85 IN 2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








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