Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 052102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH MOST AREAS TRENDING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS WEAK RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RECENT UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN SATES...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED
AROUND NORTHERN TEXAS. AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST
COAST A SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL IN
SENSE PINCH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT
BLOCKING PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE US UNDER A
FAIRLY STATIONARY AND SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEAN FLOW WILL RELAX TO BECOME ZONAL TO POSSIBLY
WEAK RIDGING...DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE. THOUGH AS OF NOW
GFS ENSEMBLE HEIGHTS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAK RIDGING SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE THE PROGNOSIS FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/23Z.
CLR OR A FEW CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FT MSL INTO SAT. SFC WIND
WILL BE SE TO NE AT 5-15 KTS OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A
GENERAL EASTERLY SURFACE WIND REGIME WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH 20-FOOT
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER...LOCALES PRONE TO EAST WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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