Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 221619
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SUN MAY 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with below average daytime temperatures
and gusty afternoon winds will prevail this week. Expect windy
conditions across much of the area Wednesday as a low pressure
system approaches from the west.
.DISCUSSION...Dry and stable today with below average temperatures
for Southeast Arizona. Breezy to locally windy across the area as a
low lifts into southern Canada from the persistant mean trough
positioned over the Pacific Northwest and central to northern Great
Basin. No surprises this morning; our current forecast looks solid.
Please see the previous discussion below for additional details.
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
Clear skies will occur across much of southeast Arizona this
morning, then scattered clouds above 25k ft msl will prevail this
afternoon and evening, especially south-to-southeast of KTUS. Clear
skies will return by daybreak Monday. Surface wind from around 16Z
today into this evening will be south-to-southwest at 12-20 kts with
gusts to near 30 kts. Surface wind will be variable in direction
generally less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through next Saturday.
Daytime minimum relative humidity will generally range from the
upper single digits to mid teens with fair to good overnight
recovery. Expect gusty generally southwest winds during the
afternoon and early evening hours. The best chance for widespread
critical fire weather conditions to occur is Wednesday afternoon for
locales from Tucson southward and southeastward to the International
and New Mexico borders. Critical fire weather conditions may again
occur Thursday afternoon across about the eastern half of Cochise
county. Field crews are encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts
for the potential issuance of Fire Weather Watches and/or Red Flag
Warnings during the next few days.
.PREV DISCUSSION...The synoptic scale upper pattern into next weekend
will be characterized with a mean longwave trough over the western
CONUS. This pattern will translate into dry conditions across
southeast Arizona through next Saturday. A persistent and fairly
tight mid-level gradient across the area will provide gusty
generally southwest winds during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Somewhat stronger winds are forecast to occur Wednesday
afternoon in response to a digging shortwave trough/closed upper low
over southern California. The mid-level gradient will loosen
Thursday and Friday for less wind, but will tighten again next
Saturday in response to the next deepening upper low over the
Pacific Northwest/Great Basin region. Expect no significant change
in daytime temps through Wed, with high temps to average about 5-10
degs or so below normal, depending upon location. The coolest day
will be Thursday as the shortwave trough moves east of the area. A
warming trend will then occur Friday into Saturday, but high temps
will remain at least a few degs below normal.
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