Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272150
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
CELL MOVEMENTS WERE GENERALLY TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS. 27/19Z RUC
HRRR REMAINED CONSISTENT VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO
DEPICTING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
OCCUR MAINLY WEST-TO-NORTH OF TUCSON. ANOTHER FAVORED AREA FOR
RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF TUCSON ACROSS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH RESPECT TO THE SCENARIO OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
SOME MINOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD POP TREND
IS DEPICTED FOR LATE TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS
LOWERED...PERHAPS CONSIDERABLY DOWNWARD...LATER THIS EVENING.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH 562 DM LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU
SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS SUN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE TUCSON
METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WRN UTAH MON
MORNING...THEN OPEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MON EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SUN
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY TREND
THESE POPS DOWNWARD AS WELL. A MARKEDLY DRIER WLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME
WILL PREVAIL MON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER MON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON NIGHT-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INITIALLY OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
SWRN CONUS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS SUN FROM TUCSON WWD WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO
COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SUN ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED TODAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR MON FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN
OCCUR MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
5-10K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND THIS EVENING WILL BE SLY/SWLY 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SLY/SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TUCSON. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH SUNDAY...THEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




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