Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 061013
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. WE MAY SEE SOME DRYING FOR A
DOWNWARD TREND LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WE SHOULD HANG ON TO ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
HANGING ON NORTH OF TUCSON. PLENTY OF DEBRIS BUT WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING SOME CLEARING IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

OUR MOST IMPORTANT INGREDIENT IS IN ABUNDANCE...MORE THAN ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO
1.7...WHICH IS AROUND 140 TO 150 PERCENT OF CLIMO. MODELS KEYING ON
WEAK IMPULSE PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER INITIAL HEAVY MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD MANAGE ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED
WITH OUTFLOW INFLUENCE TO PUSH STORMS INTO VALLEYS...AGAIN PROBABLY
ON THE LATE SIDE AFTER 22-23Z. WE`LL EMPHASIZE AREAS FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD AFTER 00Z.

THEREAFTER ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A STRONGER EASTERLY IMPULSE
DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND AND UNDER THE HIGH
(CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF THE AREA). NAMDNG5 BUYS INTO THIS RATHER WELL
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY. KEEPING THINGS BUSY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT LIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT BY THURSDAY.

AFTER THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS MAY SEE A BIT OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY ENHANCEMENT TO OUR MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AXIS TEMPORARILY SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE INTO NEW MEXICO FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SAY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. I EXPECT IT WILL QUICKLY REALIZE IT`S MISTAKE HOWEVER...AND
HOPEFULLY SHIFT BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...DEBRIS CLOUDS...WITH CLOUDS DECKS OF 8-14KFT AGL...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND BECOME SCATTERED. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR +TSRA. SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 12
KTS EXCEPT VICINITY OF TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING
PROVIDING AREAS OF SUNSHINE TO WORK ON VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME REDUCTION IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UNDER AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.