Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290425
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
924 PM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND AND A FEW
SHOWERS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT WIND SPEEDS WERE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH STILL
BEING REPORTED AT 9 PM MST IN DOUGLAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LESS
WIND TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK...SO PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KTUS. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 7-
11K FT AGL. SFC WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SFC WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY/NWLY AT 8-
15 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LESS WIND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ALOFT FRI WILL GENERALLY BE NWLY ACROSS
SE ARIZONA AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WRN CONUS.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PROVIDE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A BLEND BETWEEN THE DRIER 28/12Z GFS AND WETTER
28/12Z ECMWF YIELDS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH LIMITING MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AGAIN SAT NIGHT-SUN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NRN/CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THUS...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT INCREASED WINDS SUN MAY TRANSLATE
INTO POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST ISSUES SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH VERSUS
EARLIER TODAY. AT ANY RATE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF
TUCSON SUN-MON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THEREAFTER...THE GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST NEXT THUR. STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO DEPICTED ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA...AND THE
GFS DEPICTED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS SERN
SECTIONS BY NEXT THUR EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW...
HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR. AT THIS TIME...
THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS MARKEDLY INCREASED
POPS WARRANTED FOR NEXT FRI.

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI FROM TUCSON
EWD...BUT HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE
SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR COOLING SUN. EXPECT ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF
WARMING MON FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS TUE-WED. SOME MINOR
COOLING IS ON TAP NEXT THUR BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ


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