Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 130426
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
926 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry through much of next week with much warmer
than average temperatures. Near record high temperatures are
expected Saturday from the Tucson area westward across the lower
deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We`re seeing a dry northwesterly flow on the eastern
flank of a strong ridge who`s axis is near the west coast. For
Saturday, we`ll see a bigger jump in temperatures as a surface
high building across the southern Rockies will bring an easterly
low level return flow from New Mexico. That`s downslope for most
of our CWA, and will help push afternoon highs to near record
levels as it accelerates the warming trend for most valley
locations. Our current forecast handles this well.

Minor updates earlier for first period trends and blending in a
slightly cooler 00Z NBM for tonight. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/06Z.
SKC to thin patches of cirrus at times. ELY/SELY wind increasing
after 13/09Z to around 10 to 16 kts with higher gusts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with daytime temperatures well above average
through the coming week. Saturday into early Sunday, easterly
winds are expected, locally as high as 20 mph. Another bought of
elevated easterly winds may occur again Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-ft
winds will generally follow terrain at less than 15 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...Tucson`s record high temperature Saturday (Jan 13) is 78
degrees, which is the only remaining day this month with a record
high temperature *not* in the 80s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...We`re now settling into a prolonged quiet
weather pattern across the forecast area with above normal
temperatures. Upper level ridging is currently centered west of
Baja near 25N/120W with our area under northwesterly flow aloft
and clear skies.

Surface high pressure building across the southern Rockies will
result in an easterly component developing overnight into Saturday
with a few breezes in the normally susceptible locations including
much of the Tucson metro area. Otherwise, little change in sensible
weather this weekend with continued very warm temperatures and near
record high temperatures in a few locales. Some increase in
cirroform cloudiness expected Sunday into early Monday and then
Tuesday into Tuesday night night as a couple of weak shortwaves move
through. Temperatures will still remain well above normal through
the middle of next week, though some slight cooling is expected as
the week progresses. 12Z ECMWF/GFS along with ensemble GEFS/EPS data
are in agreement regarding troughing moving into the Desert
Southwest by next Friday and Saturday. Will introduce slight chance
of showers in the White Mountains Friday night. Early indications
are this will be more of a glancing blow with some wind, much cooler
temperatures but not a big precipitation producer this far south.
Still plenty of time to iron out any changes and at least it is
something to watch in the extended.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer/GL/Carpenter

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