Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 201039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
339 AM MST Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will begin to trend upward this weekend
into next week under predominantly clear skies. A few storms
possible near far eastern mountains next week.


.DISCUSSION...A strong low pressure system continues to slowly
lift toward the Great Lakes over the next 48 hours, as a broad
amplified high pressure ridge edges in from the west. We`ll see
one more weak impulse carve down the back side of the new mean
trough position downstream that will help slow our heating trend
down about 12 hours or so. Nevertheless that ridge will push our
temperatures back near the century mark in Tucson by Sunday or
Monday, with daytime highs around 7 or 8 degrees above average for
most of the coming week.

Quite dry with precipitable water values near or under 1/4 of an
inch and surface dew points in the teens. The 700hPa Theta-E
trends we were discussing previously (developing through central
and northern Mexico over the next 72 hours) look less well defined
through New Mexico, but could still bring enough influence for a
few buildups near far eastern mountains the first half of the

By next Friday, a weather system digging into the Pacific
Northwest and northern tier states will buckle our flow between
the trough north of us and strong high pressure over central
Mexico. We`ll lose a few meters off our heights, and thicknesses
will fall back enough to knock several degrees off of afternoon
highs next Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 21/12Z.
SKC conditions will prevail through the period. SFC wind ELY/SELY 8-
12 kts this morning becoming NWLY at 10-14 kts this afternoon. Wind
speeds will diminish to less than 10 kts this evening. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will occur into the middle of
next week with no fire weather concerns. Warmer temperatures will
occur this afternoon with much warmer temperatures expected Sunday
into next week. 20-ft winds will generally be at or below 15 mph
with some afternoon gusts due to strong daytime heating through
Wednesday. Slightly elevated west to southwest winds may occur late
next week.






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