Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 202128
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH CALIFORNIA
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE INTO ARIZONA TOMORROW WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WAS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA STATE LINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN
MUCH COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE
ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN COMPARED TO FORECAST READINGS FOR
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TRACKING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS
EVENING INTO INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS THROUGH 21/17Z. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SW WIND 10 TO 15
KTS...BECOMING WEST IN THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH
AND EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. SOME BREEZY
WINDS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED EAST WINDS MAY LINGER INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH A PERSISTENT EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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