Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
159 FXUS65 KTWC 070930 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 230 AM MST Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered storm coverage today focused on locales generally south and southeast of Tucson. The main hazard from the storms today will be their capability to produce strong gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be above normal this week with the potential for extreme heat to return to Southeast Arizona by the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed scattered clouds over the area. The 07/00z 500 mb chart placed the upper high just south of Cochise county. This upper high will be the dominate weather maker this week as it strengthen over the state, bringing hotter daytime temperatures to the area and keeping a low-grade monsoon pattern in place. Today: Convective activity mostly south and east of Tucson with main threats being outflow gusts to 45 mph and brief heavy rain. 07/00z HREF is highlighting the International border of Santa Cruz county with 30% chance of 1"+ rainfall totals where PWAT values will be around 1.25" for increased chances for heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding. Will have to watch rainfall totals if storms move thru Nogales Sonora for possible flash flooding of the Nogales Wash. Confidence low for this scenario but it is a non- zero possibility. Highs will be similar to Sunday. Tuesday: Easterly mid-level flow with the upper high centered over eastern-central Arizona. Convective activity will continue to be south and east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly warmer than today. Wednesday: Hottest day of the week as upper high center height peaks at nearly 6000 dm. Most of the record highs for the 9th, see climate section below, occurred last year with forecast 85-70mb thickness values for Tucson near to what occurred last year when 111 was recorded. NBM probabilities has a 66% chance for 110 degrees; 23% chance for 111 degrees and 9% chance for 112 degrees. Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from 10 am to 8 pm for the lower elevations of Pima, Pinal and Graham counties. Convective activity mostly south and east of Tucson. Thursday/Friday: Upper high flattens as an upper level trof moves through intermountain west. Convective activity continue to mostly occur south and east of Tucson with high temperatures cooling but remaining above normal. Saturday/Sunday: Ensembles show the center of the upper high off southern California which may open up N-NE flow aloft over the area with storms propagating S-SW off the higher terrain. High temperatures remaining several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. SKC to FEW-SCT lcly BKN 12-15k ft AGL thru 07/18z, then SCT-BKN 7-12k ft AGL with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly S/SE of KTUS thru 08/04Z with CIGS BKN 5-8k ft AGL and gusty outflow winds up to 45 kts. Skies will then become SKC-FEW 12-15k ft AGL overnight. SFC winds generally WLY 8-13 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Although Southeast Arizona will be experiencing a low-grade monsoon pattern the first half of the week, isolated to low-end scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected to the south and southeast of Tucson for the next several days. The main threat for storms will be the potential for strong gusty and erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, an eventual uptick in monsoon activity is possible the second half of the week into next weekend as the upper high shifts to a more favorable location aloft. Temperatures will be above normal this week with hottest temperatures mid-week. Winds generally light and under 15 mph with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up to 35-45 mph near any thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DATE Jul 09 FCST RCD/YR TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 110 111/2024 AJO 112 116/2024 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 111 116/1958 PICACHO PEAK 108 113/1994 SAFFORD AG STATION 110 108/2024 SIERRA VISTA FD 101 104/2024 TOMBSTONE 102 106/1979 WILLCOX 105 109/2003 DOUGLAS 102 108/2003 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ501-502-504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson