Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH BUT REMAINED SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS OF 8 PM MST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MORE TYPICAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
ELSEWHERE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR ARIZONA. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
WHERE TO DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
MOISTURE RESIDING MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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