Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190941
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 AM MST THU MAY 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The low pressure system over Arizona will move
slowly northeast and out of the area tonight. We will still have
enough moisture for a few thunderstorms northeast of Tucson Today.
Dry conditions with temperatures recovering to near normal for the
latter part of the week. Another upper level system will impact the
region this weekend into early next week with another round of windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Still looking at a chance of showers or thunderstorms
mainly in the White Mountains today. Otherwise, dry conditions
elsewhere as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the region
today and Friday. This will be very brief as another storm system
deepens across the western United States this weekend. Models showed
this system entering the Pacific Northwest today and lingering over
the Intermountain West over the weekend. This feature will remain
north of the area, but will result in an increase in wind across
southeast Arizona Saturday and more so Sunday. Daytime temperatures
will rebound to near normal for Friday, before lowering a few
degrees over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
Mostly clear skies early this morning with the exception of some
lingering clouds near the New Mexico border. Otherwise, scattered
clouds will redevelop at 8-10k ft agl across most of the area this
afternoon. Enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms, mostly across the White Mountains well northeast of
KTUS. Normal diurnal wind trends through the forecast period with
some gusts in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Enough lingering moisture for another chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly near the White Mountains
today. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail area-wide Friday
through early next week.

A few afternoon gusts this afternoon due to daytime heating,
otherwise fairly light winds. Breezy to locally windy conditions
will return Friday and continue through this weekend into early next
week as a low pressure system deepens northwest of the area. Wind
speeds will approach critical levels for portions of the area
generally from Tucson westward Friday and Saturday, then shifting
into eastern areas on Sunday. Breezy winds to continue Monday and
Tuesday but remaining below critical thresholds. Minimum relative
humidity values will generally be in the 10 to 15 percent range for
valley locations Friday through Sunday and 20 to 25 percent across
the mountains. Even lower minimum relative humidity values early
next week. The best potential for critical fire weather thresholds
being met will be both Friday and Saturday mainly west of Tucson
across fire weather zone 150, then for eastern areas on Sunday.
Will hold off on the issuance of any fire weather headlines at this
time given uncertainty on areal extent and borderline winds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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