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000
FXUS65 KTWC 051003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
302 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST
WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM
MOVES INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TRACKING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH AND BRUSHING EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
OUR EXTREME EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY...THEN COOL A
FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM BRUSHING
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 15K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE SAFFORD
VALLEY EAST OF TUCSON...AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGS EAST OF THE AREA.
AFTER A WARMUP INTO THURSDAY...IT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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