Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262142
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING NORTHERN GRAHAM AND NORTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE STORMS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP WITH OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY STRUGGLING. 12Z SOUNDING HAD DECENT MOISTURE
AT 1.37 INCHES. RIGHT AT THE MOMENT WE CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONTINUED
RECYCLE OF SURGE MOISTURE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL REINFORCEMENT. MID
LEVELS HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DRYING TRENDS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS PER
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GOES WATER VAPOR TRENDS.
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE INCLUDING -7 AT H5 FROM EARLIER MAY BE
SEEING A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING WITH FLUCTUATION OF THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WE SHOULD
STILL MANAGE TO COOK UP LATE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY THROUGH PORTIONS OF
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTY TO GO WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAIN
STORMS...BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
OUTFLOWS AND THINGS AREN`T EXPECTED TO GET NEARLY AS ORGANIZED
TODAY. WITH SOME UNTAPPED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR LATE EVENING ACTIVITY TRIGGERED BY OUTFLOWS.

WE FINALLY BRING THE EASTERLY IMPULSE CURRENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND
AREA OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD HELP COOK
UP A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY.

ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY HIGH CONSOLIDATION OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE STATE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO TAMP DOWN
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT AND CONFINE THEM TO MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHILE HEATING THINGS UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/21Z.
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD/SCT -TSRA/ -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AT 8-15K FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT E OF KTUS...SPREADING WEST OVERNIGHT
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/BROST




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