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000
FXUS65 KTWC 262138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...THOSE CHANCES APPEARED TO BE RATHER SLIM. THUS...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWED SOME DELAY
IN A STORM THAT WILL BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE
GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN ADVANCE OF IT. MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND THE THROUGH
ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL BE ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECONDARY..BUT
WEAKER...SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY BRINGING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE AROUND 2 FEET OF FRESH SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SWLY-NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
SATURDAY...WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
15-25 MPH. STRONGER SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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