Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290420
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN SE AZ LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...THERE ARE A FEW STORMS UPWIND IN NEW MEXICO AND ON
THE RIM...MOVING SW. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS WERE NOT HEAVY ON
SUNDAY AND WIND GUSTS NOT SEVERE IN SE AZ.

TEMPERATURES DID COOL IN A FEW PLACES FROM THE SHOWERS SO ADJUSTED
LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA STILL EXISTS TIL 29/12Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA FORECAST AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF TSRA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 12
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
FOR MON...APPEARS THAT THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR
LATER VERSUS TODAY...AND THE FAVORED AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON SEVERAL 28/12Z NWP
SOLUTIONS...THE SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE LESS
VERSUS TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND PERHAPS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD


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