Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 261011
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
309 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL AMPLIFY SOME MORE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
WEEKEND. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION WITH RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS ON RECORD HIGHS AT SELECTED SITES. OTHERWISE...MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FEW-SCT
CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
THOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS EXPECTED. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE 28TH. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

LOCATION                   MARCH 28TH      MARCH 29TH
TUCSON INTNL AIRPORT       91 IN 1943      91 IN 1943
AJO                        97 IN 1988      93 IN 1943
PICACHO PEAK               92 IN 1988      93 IN 2004
NOGALES                    84 IN 1986      85 IN 1967
SAFFORD                    91 IN 1988      89 IN 1953
SIERRA VISTA               82 IN 1967      83 IN 2012
TOMBSTONE                  91 IN 1917      86 IN 1943
WILLCOX                    89 IN 1916      88 IN 1916
DOUGLAS                    85 IN 2012      85 IN 2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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