Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 211620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday. Expect
much warmer daytime temperatures today and Wednesday before
temperatures return to seasonal normals Thursday and Friday. A
slight chance of valley rain and higher elevation snow may then
occur early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Sunny conditions prevailed across southeast Arizona
this morning and will be abundant into the afternoon hours.
Satellite imagery this morning showed high clouds extending from SW
Utah to off the southern California coast. High pressure ridge axis
which was over the areas this morning will keep these clouds from
moving across the area until later tonight as the axis pushes on
east. Morning Tucson sounding showed significant warming in the 630-
850 mb area which will translate to much warmer temperatures this
afternoon versus Monday, around 8 to 15 degrees. The biggest changes
will occur mostly above 4500 feet.

Warmer yet on Wednesday before turning cooler/breezy on Thursday as
a mostly dry cold front/upper level trof pushes across the area.
Could see a few flakes fly in the Whites Wednesday afternoon into
the early evening hours.


.AVIATION...Valid through 22/15Z.
Clear conditions expected through tonight. Will see some high level
clouds start to push across the area late tonight into Wednesday.
Light surface winds mainly less than 10 kts as well, exhibiting
typical diurnal trends. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft will result in dry and warm
condiitons across the area today and Wednesday, though dewpoints
will remain somewhat elevated for late February. A weather system
passing to the north on Thursday will result in some increased
breezes Thursday afternoon, especially near the New Mexico border.
Even with cooler temperatures moving in Thursday and Friday, there
will be a drop in humidity levels as dewpoints drop as well. Warmer
temperatures return this weekend with some increased breezes Sunday
as a storm system slowly approaches from the west into early next





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