Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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908
FXUS65 KTWC 072214
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST. QUITE DRY OTHER THAN SHEAVES
OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM A WEAK LOW DIRTYING
UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 1/4 OF AN INCH.

EXPECT THIS GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
THE COMING WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AS MUCH AS 12 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

BEYOND THAT...ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST. THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SIGNS OF THE
ECMWF RESPONDING TO THIS AS ONE MIGHT HOPE...A WETTER AND LESS
CONSOLIDATED PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE ONE OR MORE STORMS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS MONTH. THE EARLY SIGNS OF THE PATTERN
CHANGE ARE SHOWING UP IN A REASONABLE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD
TREATMENT OF THIS AT 200 TO 240 HOURS. A LOOK AT GFS OUTPUT PAST 240
HOURS ACTUALLY GRABS ON TO THIS NICELY...FINALLY OPENING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UP TO A WET TRAJECTORY SYSTEM AFTER THE 18TH.

THE QUESTION IS WHAT NEXT? THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS WON`T BE JUST A
1 SHOT DEAL LIKE THE FEB 1ST STORM. THERE ARE SOME SOLID HINTS OF
GOOD H5 5760M ENSEMBLE TRENDS WITH THE GEFS PAST 300 HOURS SHOWING A
FAVORABLE ZONAL CONSOLIDATION OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OBVIOUSLY
MORE TIME TO LOOK THINGS OVER...HOWEVER A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN IS
TRYING VERY HARD TO RETURN LATER THIS MONTH AND IT`S NOT BEING
CONJURED OUT OF THIN AIR. THIS WOULD BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT CPC WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH A
FEW AFTERN0ON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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