Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252055
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING STORMS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE FIRING AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE GILA
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO GREENLEE COUNTY AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM MOTION ON THE SOUTHERN STORMS IS
GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH WHILE THE STORMS ACROSS
GREENLEE COUNTY ARE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH. WE DID HAVE A REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH THE STORM IN
DOUGLAS AFTER 1 PM. WHILE SMALL HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY AIDED BY
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF GREENLEE COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE TUCSON METRO
WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENING AND PRIMARILY DUE TO
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST FROM OUTFLOWS IN OUR NORMALLY DUST PRONE REGIONS ON I-10 FROM
MARANA INTO PINAL COUNTY AND WEST OF TUCSON INTO THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION AND HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL WIND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AND RECONSOLIDATE
SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
BULK OF THE STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WEAK INVERTED
TROUGHS IN THE FLOW TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION...PERHAPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THESE ARE SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS
FAR OUT. BOTTOM LINE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR AN
OVERALL MID GRADE MONSOON THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT CERTAINLY
ACTIVE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
EXPECT SCT TO NMRS -TSRA/-SHRA COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF SE AZ FROM
25/22Z TO 26/04Z WITH ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. SOME TSRA COULD
HAVE GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS TIL SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA
COVERAGE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NW WINDS TO BECOME SE OVERNIGHT
THEN NW AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SE AZ.  FRIDAY MAY BE A BIT LESS ACTIVE DAY BUT THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE. INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY LIGHTNING
UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED THIS WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD



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