Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 161528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
827 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into next week. Expect near
record temperatures for some locations again today and Friday,
then relatively cooler temperatures this weekend and early next
week. However, daytime temperatures will still be several degrees
above average.


.DISCUSSION...The large scale pattern is characterized by an upper
level low moving into the Pacific Northwest, strong high pressure
aloft centered along the west central Mexico coast and southwest
flow aloft between these features moving into the California coast.
A mix of mid and considerable high level cloudiness is noted within
this southwest flow, although much of the cloud cover will track
north of southern Arizona, at least for today. Overall pattern has
changed very little in the last several days and expect another day
with record to near record high temperatures today. Current forecast
package on track. No updates this morning. For more information on
the latter periods of the forecast, please refer to the PREV
DISCUSSION section below.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/12Z.
A few clouds around 15k ft AGL with scattered to broken clouds
above 20k ft AGL, then decreasing clouds this evening. Normal
diurnal wind trends generally less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions into the middle of next week. Some
gusty west to northwest winds will prevail Friday afternoon east of
Tucson as a system passes north of the area. Occasionally gusty east
winds may also occur this weekend, especially east of Tucson.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven less than
10 mph.


.PREV DISCUSSION...The strong ridge through northwest Mexico nosing
into our area will continue to bring temperatures around 10 to 15
degrees above normal today and tomorrow.

A trough passing through the region north of us will help to push
temperatures down 10 degrees or so over the weekend. Still 4 or 5
degrees above average, but at least well down from record levels.
As this occurs, our overnight lows that have also been running above
average drop to near normal due to the dry lower levels and wide
diurnal temperature trends. Nothing special for mid to late
November, but we may need our first widespread freeze warning for
colder eastern valley locations Sunday/Monday/Tuesday mornings.
Also, the first 40s we`ve seen at Tucson International since May

Another system brushing by to our northeast before digging deeper
downstream through the Southern Plains will keep the relatively
cooler temperatures going early next week before a building ridge
near the Baja coast puts us back into the realm of 10 to 15 degrees
above average by Thanksgiving.





Prev Discussion...Meyer

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