Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190430
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DROP
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO BELOW
NORMAL READINGS BY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK AS WEATHER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA WERE STILL
OCCURRING ACROSS ERN PIMA ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THESE LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREAS
NE OF TUCSON BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROFINESS OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRY...COOLER AND NOT AS WINDY ON TUESDAY. WARMER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH DAYS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 12-15K FT DISSIPATING
AFTER 19/08Z BECOMING CLEAR BY 19/10Z. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN AFTER 19/20Z. SW SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL WINDY PERIODS. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL
BE LOWER WITH SINGLE DIGIT MIN RHS BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 151 AND 152 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
TODAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR SPOTTY RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 151-152. THEN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY FOR EVEN
STRONGER WINDS. IF THIS COMES TO PASS WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ZONE 152. BY THE
END OF A WEEK OF LOW RH LEVELS AND BREEZINESS...FUELS WILL BE MORE
RECEPTIVE AS 10 AND 100 HOUR FUELS SHOULD BECOME QUITE DRY WITH THE
CURED GRASS READY TO GO ANY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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