Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 282138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF
TUCSON LATE NEXT WEEK. HOTTER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...AND THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST COCHISE
COUNTY AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS OF SIGNIFICANCE SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
GENERATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS.
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON LATE
TONIGHT.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME WEAK NELY SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS FROM NW ARIZONA INTO NE ARIZONA. 28/12Z UNIV OF
ARIZONA WRF-NAM AND WRF-GFS WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BOTH SOLUTIONS FAVORED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NWWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHER SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE A GENERAL SWWD MOVEMENT/
PROPAGATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRIMARILY BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS SAT AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST IS STILL SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED
PATCHY BLOWING DUST GENERALLY FROM FAR NW TUCSON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PINAL COUNTY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT EVENING. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SUN-MON.

THEREAFTER...28/12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST TUE-
FRI IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS HIGH
PLAINS...AND A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST
COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT A GRADUAL DAILY
DECREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE TUESDAY
TO FRIDAY PERIOD. THUS...PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR THUR-FRI FROM TUCSON WWD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTINUING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
GENERALLY A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF DAILY COOLING SUN-WED FOLLOWED BY
DAYTIME TEMPS TRENDING QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THUR-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 29/20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLD TO SCT CLOUD DECKS MAINLY EAST WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-
15K FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FAIRLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS FIRE ZONES 152 & 153. MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SATURDAY AND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN ZONES 151...152 AND 153 ALTHOUGH EASTERN ZONE 150
MAY SEE SOME STORMS SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET
AND AS IS TYPICAL MAY PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH SUNDAY GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE 150...
PEAKING IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO STEADILY
PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA



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