Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
940 PM MST MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend will continue to limit thunderstorms to
mainly east of Tucson through Thursday. Isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms should return by next weekend.
High temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of normal
into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A few showers developed west of Tucson this afternoon
but that was pretty much it across southern Arizona today. Drier air
will continue to limit afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity
through Thursday. That said, current forecast was in good shape.
For more details, please refer to the previous forecast discussion.


Scattered clouds 10-13k ft developing again after 23/19z with isold
-TSRA mainly over mountains. Surface wind generally less than 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A drying trend from west-to-east through Thursday,
with only isolated thunderstorms mainly near mountains east of
Tucson by Thursday. Then a bit of an increase in storm coverage is
expected again Friday and Saturday due to an increase in monsoon
moisture. 20-foot winds into next weekend will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph except near thunderstorms.


.PREV DISCUSSION...For Tuesday into early Wednesday
the aforementioned disturbances to our west/northwest will swing
through the state resulting in a reduction of showers and
thunderstorms with most of the convection on Tuesday over the
eastern zones of Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties and mostly
isolated to scattered in nature. For Wednesday the focus will be
mostly over the White mountains of Greenlee and Graham counties,
with mountain storms elsewhere.

Thursday will see the trough/disturbance stalling just to our east,
with moisture generally just to our east. That said, isolated to
scattered storms hugging the New Mexico border for Thursday.

Moisture will push back westward on Friday as a deformation zone
slips back west over northern Sonora, so the POP forecast for Friday
and Saturday will be similar.

For Sunday into Monday high pressure tries to build in from the
west, but enough lingering moisture to our east to keep isolated
storms in the forecast for the three eastern zones, but especially
along the border with New Mexico.






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