Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 260400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAVE
MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...CANCELLED THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS/GRIDS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE COMPLEX MOSTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY TO
THE NORTH.

HARDEST HIT AREAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WERE THE NOGALES AREA THAT
EXPERIENCED FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY BETWEEN COWLIC AND ARIVACA THAT PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPED FARTHER
NORTH...WEST OF SILVERBELL THAT PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION...
STORMS ALSO MOVED FROM THE MARANA TO ORACLE AREA AND NORTHWEST
TOWARD RED ROCK. THESE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS PRODUCED OUTFLOWS THAT
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DUST STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL
COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HABOOB THEN PROGRESSED
INTO THE PHOENIX METRO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR MY FORECAST AREA...ONLY A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...I REDUCED RAIN CHANCES...BUT STILL KEPT SOME ISOLATED
THREAT IN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT WE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...BUT KEPT SOME `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OUT WEST AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY SINCE SOME AREAS WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED...WHICH WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
INHERITED/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. MADE SOME CHANGES TO REFLECT
THESE SHORT TERM CONCERNS TO TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IF REQUIRED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF
KTUS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE WNW 10-20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OTHERWISE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS OTHER THAN IN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE HAVE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TOMORROW IN FACT WILL
HAVE A LITTLE HELP FROM A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE HIGH. THEN SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...DROZD/GLUECK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEADOWS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.