Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 121008
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
307 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will return this
weekend with heavy rain at times. A drying trend will begin Monday
and continue during the upcoming week, with only isolated
thunderstorms mainly east to south of Tucson late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continued
early this morning from around Safford to Clifton. Elsewhere, radar
was detecting a stray shower or two near Tucson and Gila Bend
overnight. A weak upper low was positioned over the northern Gulf of
California and appeared to be helping showers develop south of
Lukeville in Sonora, Mexico and farther north around Gila Bend. This
feature should help focus showers and thunderstorms across southeast
Arizona today as it weakens and tracks eastward over the area.
Otherwise, elevated moisture will support daily shower and
thunderstorm activity again Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, models
continued to show a deepening westerly flow around Tuesday through
next weekend. This will result in a drier and less favorable pattern
for daily thunderstorms. That said, will keep the downturn in
thunderstorm activity in the forecast with daytime readings
remaining at or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 13/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-11k ft AGL. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA
mainly northeast of KTUS thru 12/15Z. Aft 12/15Z, TSRA/SHRA becoming
more numerous and widespread through the rest of the morning and
into the afternoon hours, slowly diminishing aft 13/04Z. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities near the stronger TSRA. Strong and gusty
outflow winds to 45 knots with the TSRA, otherwise SFC winds
generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this weekend
followed by a gradual decrease in thunderstorms from west-to-east
Monday into next Friday. Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will likely be limited to locales east-to-south of
Tucson late next week. 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven less than 15 mph apart from gusty thunderstorms outflows.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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