Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 150954
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
253 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect periods of valley rain and mountain snow through
the day, followed by decreasing precipitation chances Monday. Dry
conditions with a warming trend will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday,
then valley rain and mountain snow will return especially Thursday
night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low responsible for the rain and mountain
snow was centered over Sonora Mexico early this morning. The snow
level was near 6,500 feet so the Winter Weather Advisory still
looked good for the mountains. Latest models showed the upper low
tracking northeast into west Texas by this evening. Wrap around
moisture on the backside of the upper low will still support some
showers into Monday. However, the bulk of the precipitation will
diminish significantly this evening in the wake of the upper low. A
brief break in the unsettled weather can be anticipated Tuesday into
early Thursday. Thereafter, models were advertising a series weather
systems impacting the region Thursday afternoon through next weekend
and into the early part of the following week. Mainly cooler and wet
weather expected with each passing system.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
Periods of -SHRA and mountain -SHSN will occur thru this afternoon,
with the best coverage from KTUS vicinity east to the New Mexico
border. This precip will result in occasional MVFR conditions and
perhaps brief IFR conditions and higher terrain will be obscured.
Surface wind thru this evening will mainly be sely to swly at 5-15
kts with gusts to 22 kts. The exception will be in the upper Gila
River valley near KSAD, where surface wind will be nwly at 11-16 kts
with some gusts to near 28 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a good chance of valley rain and
mountain snow through this afternoon, then precipitation chances
will decrease from west to east tonight into Monday. Expect dry
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, then valley rain and mountain snow
will return especially Thursday night into next Saturday. Outside of
some gusty northwest winds in the upper Gila River valley this
afternoon and evening, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and
generally less than 15 mph into the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST today for AZZ510>514.

&&

$$

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