Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 041024
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
322 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. DESPITE THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND TODAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RATHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
SKC WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 04/12Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
/UNDER 12 KTS/ WITH A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT COMPARED TO
NORMAL TRENDS. A MORE PRONOUNCED EAST WIND IN PLACE LATE-MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS FROM INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 15 MPH...THOUGH
AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS MAY SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 20-
25 MPH AT TIMES. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND...NOT APPROACHING
NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL HELP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REBOUNDS IN THE MEANTIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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