Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 152118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 PM MST SAT OCT 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A rather static weather pattern across the Southwest
will maintain the mostly clear and mild weather conditions into the
middle of next week.


Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals broad southwesterly flow
across the region. Under clear skies, temperatures were already in
the lower 90s across the lower deserts as of 21Z. Well on their way
into the mid 90s before the end of the day and the near term portion
of the forecast looks right on track.

Not much day to day synoptic variation across the region as weak
ridging/zonal flow is forecast through at least the middle of next
week. By the time we get late in the week upper ridging strengthens
overhead with H5 heights approaching 588dm which is similar to what
has been observed recently. As such, see no reason why we won`t see
a continued period of above normal temps in the upper 80s/lower 90s
right through next weekend. There remains the possibility of a back
door front sliding into eastern Arizona which could knock
temperatures back a few degrees, although it looks unlikely that the
cooler temps would make it all the way into Tucson and points west.
Slight upward adjustments were made to temps at the tail end of the
forecast period but overall the forecast is largely unchanged. No
PoPs anywhere at any point in the forecast.


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/23Z.
Expect clear skies thru 16/18z, then increasing high clouds mainly
above 20k ft agl. Surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and low humidity levels will
prevail into the middle of next week under high pressure aloft.
Light drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours and 20-
foot winds will be less than 15 mph with occasional higher gusts
during the afternoon and early evening hours through the middle of
next week. A backdoor front will then result in stronger easterly
winds during the latter half of next week.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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