Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 221222 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PWAT VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
STARTING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THICKNESS VALUES JUMP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING
NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. ON THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR
ENTERING EASTERN SECTIONS. BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS TRACK AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL COMMENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE TUCSON AREA. THERE WILL PERHAPS BE A
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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