Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS THE WEAK LOW TRACKS
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES CLEAR. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AS AN OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
NEAR TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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