Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 130403
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
903 PM MST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS AGAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY. MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH A SWATH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS THAT WAS AROUND EARLIER
TODAY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH CLOUDINESS NOW ONLY COVERING THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 73 DEGS
AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 84 DEGS. TODAYS HIGH OF 84 DEGS
WAS 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL TWEAK DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN A FEW
PLACES WHERE THE SHORT TERM GRIDS DIFFER FROM THE RECENT TRENDS.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/06Z.
SURFACE WIND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...
THEN WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 12-22 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM KSAD NE WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WIDESPREAD AND LONG LIVED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE A WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IMPULSE CARVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT ENHANCED IN
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO USHERING IN
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY.

RIDGE WILL LOSE MUCH OF IT`S GEOMETRY AS IT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A NET THICKNESS GAIN WILL
PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 6 OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

A SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION/AVIATION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...MEYER/DROZD






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