Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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946
FXUS65 KTWC 050415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME LAST NIGHT.  THAT TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUMPING ANOTHER 5
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE MANAGED TODAY WHICH WILL PUT US RIGHT ABOUT
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.  NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS EVERYTHING RIGHT ON TRACK.  CERNIGLIA

REMAINDER FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS WEAK RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A NOTABLY STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL SET UP A CLASSIC OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BECOME WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR SOME LOCATIONS...AIDED BY AN
EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BRINGING A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
THOUGH THE WARMING TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE INCREASING DAYTIME HIGHS.

WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AFTER THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z.
CLR SKIES OTHER THAN A FEW WISPY CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY.  SFC
WINDS MOSTLY E-NE 5-15 KTS WITH LCLY HIER GUSTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 15 MPH...THOUGH
AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS MAY SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 20-
25 MPH AT TIMES.  A WARMING TREND WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY ONWARD WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON
MONDAY.  OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND...NOT
APPROACHING NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  LINGERING COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HELP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REBOUNDS IN THE
MEANTIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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