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000
FXUS65 KTWC 122113
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
213 PM MST SUN MAY 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN SONORA WILL
MEANDER AROUND NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...BRINGING A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH HIGHS NEAR
100 DEGREES IN LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AND 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
AFTER SUNDOWN BUT STILL STAY UP IN SPEED IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT.
EXPECTING THESE EASTERLY WINDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MONDAY AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS. THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL PEAK
AROUND THURSDAY BEFORE LOWERING A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL THRU 13/09Z THEN SKC.
SURFACE WIND ELY 10-20 KT EXCEPT 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...EASING AFT 13/03Z TO 5-15 KT.  WIND
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFT 13/15Z.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING
TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS EXPOSED RIDGES WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH OVERALL THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AND AGAIN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.  OUTSIDE OF A THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK.  WINDS WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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