Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 170344
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WEEK. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINDS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST WHICH
WILL SPREAD A FAIRLY DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS OVER THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  ALREADY SENT AN UPDATE OUT AWHILE BACK
TO ADDRESS THE EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY 7-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGREES WARMING MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US UP TO NEARLY NORMAL.  A DECENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.

THE UNUSUALLY ACTIVE MAY CONTINUES BEYOND MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC...ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  FOR THE MOST PART
THIS TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA BUT IT
WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE SYSTEMS OR INGESTION OF
MOISTURE TO CATCH OUR NORTHERN AREAS.  OVERALL MAIN AFFECT WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z. DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS AOB 20K FT MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.  THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST MID DAY
SUNDAY.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 8-13 KTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THE NEXT TWO DAYS REACHING
TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL GUSTY WINDS WITH
BORDERLINE RED FLAG WIND THRESHOLDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION
VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.  WITH THAT SAID...GIVEN THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AND
MARGINAL FIRE DANGER...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.  TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE


&&

$$

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