Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 180347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
848 PM MST Mon Apr 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will persist through at least
next weekend, with occasional high clouds from time to time. Gusty
afternoon winds at times as systems brush by to our north,
especially Thursday afternoon into Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Persistence continues to be a decent forecast in
this stagnant weather pattern, with high/low temperatures running
roughly the same today as they did yesterday. Warm weather remains
for the foreseeable future under generally westerly flow aloft.
Occasional high-level cloudiness will spread across Arizona as a
few weak shortwaves spin off an upper low over the North Pacific.

Later in the work week, an upper trough pushes through the Rockies
on Thursday and guidance has been trending farther north as of late.
This keeps a slightly weaker gradient in our vicinity, but afternoon
breezes and gusts are still expected to pick up on Thursday and
Friday. Ridging builds in behind this system during the weekend
providing additional warming with temperatures around 10-12 degrees
above normal.


.AVIATION...Valid through 19/06Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20K ft AGL through the period. Surface winds will
remain 10 kts or less through the overnight and into Tuesday
morning. WLY winds increase primarily after 18/19Z to around 10 kts
with gusts to around 20 kts mainly east of KTUS.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above normal daytime temperature
will continue this week. Minimum daytime humidities will be in the
single digits and teens. For the most part, 20-foot winds will
follow normal diurnal trends at less than 15 mph with occasional
afternoon gustiness through Wednesday. A dry weather system will
pass north of the area Thursday into Friday, with breezy conditions
for much of Southeast Arizona. This may create critical fire weather
conditions for isolated spots mainly east of Tucson on Thursday and





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