Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 122109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
EASTERN PIMA AND GRAHAM COUNTIES AND NEAR BORDER AREAS. BREEZY TO
WINDY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS IN WIND ADVISORY AREAS OF COCHISE COUNTY
INCLUDING GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE.

IMPULSE CARVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT ENHANCED IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO USHERING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY.

RIDGE WILL LOSE MUCH OF IT`S GEOMETRY AS IT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A NET THICKNESS GAIN WILL
PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 6 OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

A SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/00Z.
EXPECT WSW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS IN SE AZ THRU ABOUT 13/03Z.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY SE OF A LINE FROM
KFHU-KLSB INCLUDING THE KDUG VCNTY. WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-22 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KSAD NE
WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL YIELD TO
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY.  THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN
THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
WIDESPREAD AND LONG LIVED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE A WARNING
WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS DUE TO
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST FOR AZZ151>153.
    WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST FOR AZZ503-507>509-511>513.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/DROZD






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