Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 151631

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
931 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty east winds today, otherwise dry and warmer
conditions the second half of the week. A stronger Pacific storm
system will bring a very good chance of valley rain, mountain
snow, cooler temperatures and gusty winds this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Windy east and southeast winds today as expected,
but we should hold below advisory levels (and your mileage may
vary with some locations locally shielded or enhanced by
terrain). The low that passed through us yesterday is now near
southern Sonora and central Baja, serving to dirty up the base of
a developing ridge as it loses higher latitude support. We`ll see
a warming trend with the larger scale ridge, but the easterly
return flow will keep that from getting out of hand the next 2
days. Just near to little above average for Mid February.

Still on track for a stronger, windier, wetter, and cooler system
to impact the area over the weekend. Please see the previous
discussion below for details.


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/18Z.
Mostly clear. Windy surface winds out of the east and southeast,
12-20 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts thru 16/02Z. Surface winds
diminishing overnight.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected into Friday, followed by
a good chance of valley rain/mountain snow over the weekend as a
strong Pacific storm system moves across the region. Expect gusty
east to southeast 20-ft winds today, with gusty south to southwest
winds Friday afternoon, Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will generally be less than 15 mph.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Made some slight timing changes to the
forecast as latest model runs coming in a little bit slower, which
was brought up in the Tuesday afternoon discussion that this
could occur. Otherwise the forecast was pretty much left intact
with best chance for precipitation being Saturday night through

I continued the storm total precip estimates for valley locations
around 0.33" to 0.75" with mountains around 0.75" to 1.4". Snow
levels falling to around 6500 feet or so, with 5"-12" above 7000
feet. These numbers are subject to change if the system takes a more
southern track.

System departs late Sunday into Monday with warmer temperatures on
tap early next week as high pressure aloft builds over the area.






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