Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL FIRST BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEARING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
WHICH BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. LATEST WV IMAGERY AND 25/00Z GFS 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOW THE TROF AXIS OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS CLEARING ALONG
WITH CALMER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST BELOW-NORMAL LOWS IN
WELL OVER A MONTH. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ WERE IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALREADY SEEING 20S. WITH
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND 8-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO HIGHS ACHIEVED
TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER A
FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS
AND NEAR THE KDUG TERMINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD GUSTINESS FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TURNING MUCH COLDER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS. MOST OF
THE LOW DESERTS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
IN WELL OVER A MONTH.

DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROFS MOVE ACROSS FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE ONE ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROF WELL TO OUR NW. GRADIENT PEAKS ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER NEVADA/CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS A
GIVEN ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LOCALES...MAINLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY...NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM NRN UTAH SW INTO SRN CA.
UPSLOPE TYPE PRECIP BREAKING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MADE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POP GRIDS...BUT LIKELY STILL NOT HIGH
ENOUGH. SINCE ITS TUESDAY THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE AND
TWEAK THESE NUMBERS HIGHER AND DEAL WITH ANY TIMING ISSUES THAT ARE
LIKELY TO POP UP AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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