Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

000
FXUS65 KTWC 131005
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WRN MONTANA
SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NE OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS EAST
OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ
LATE TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MON-WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WRN CONUS MON TRANSITIONS TO GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT TUE-WED. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST THUR. 13/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A 569 DM CLOSED LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA MIDDAY FRI. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS SE AZ SAT. HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDER FOR FRI-SAT BASED ON
VARIOUS STABILITY FIELDS.

THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRI. THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT.
THE EXCEPTION IS WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT. EXPECT A COUPLE DEGS OR SO OF COOLING MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-WED. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THUR-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/12Z.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT KDUG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FROM TUCSON WWD
THRU MONDAY MORNING...AND A FEW TO PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NE OF KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THIS AREA
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WIDESPREAD AND
LONG LIVED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THUS...A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.