Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 AM MST FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STEADILY
COOLING TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE AREA
ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER NEW
MEXICO THE LAST FEW HOURS ON EASTERLY WINDS. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A SECOND STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED CIRRUS CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FROM YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER WHERE ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SNEAK IN TO
KICK OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EACH OF THESE LOWS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST BUT FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH TO HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
SLOWLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND.

A DEEPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS TO THE
NORTH A LITTLE CLOSER WHICH WILL KICK UP STRONGER WINDS AND DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE LAST MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S COLDEST
VALLEYS IN COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.

THEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE AND HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS ONE
IS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND RATHER DEEP. IF IT COMES TO PASS
AS CURRENTLY MODELED WE WILL END UP WITH SOME WIND...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TERRAIN DRIVEN
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTN AT 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH
THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CERNIGLIA
AVIATION....MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...MOLLERE

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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