Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190950
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEK AS WEATHER SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF UNSEASONABLY LOW LATITUDE
IMPULSES IS EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING SEVERAL DEGREES
OF COOLING BEHIND. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL REBOUND WITH A
STRONG WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION
OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOT
MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT MORNING WINDS...THEN SW WINDS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON 10-
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL WINDY PERIODS. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER WITH SINGLE DIGIT MIN RHS BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 151 AND 152 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN COMBINATION
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND DRYING FUELS WE MAY SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN


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