Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
AND PATCHY FROST IN EASTERN AREAS. DRYING WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A
LITTLE FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS DOWN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND TO
SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT ALSO PROVIDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG SPOTS OVERNIGHT. COLDEST VALLEY SPOTS COULD
ALSO SEE SOME FREEZING FOG OR FROST. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.
PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/04Z.
CLEARING TRENDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING WITH VSBYS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING BELOW 2 SM ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
NORTHWEST BREEZES MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER
MAY ENTER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATION EAST OF TUCSON. FOR THESE LOCATION HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED FREEZING FOG MENTION AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FOG MENTION ACROSS THE CITY OF TUCSON AND
SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON
THIS MAYBE NOT HAPPEN. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TUCSON AND SOUTH WILL
BE FROST POTENTIAL AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN UP WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...OUTLYING AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME FROST IN THE
AM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DRY OUT
RATHER QUICKLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. THOUGH...THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. AS BY CHRISTMAS GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EDGING THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS NOW AS EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN IT BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL LIMIT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA.
STILL...QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO EVOLVE SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...MEYER
PREV DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...81




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