Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 211000
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Monday. A drying trend will then limit
thunderstorms to mainly near the New Mexico border by next Thursday.
High temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of normal
during the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Bulk of cloud cover this morning is across central and
northern Arizona with SE Arizona having mostly clear conditions. Low
grade monsoon forecast today thru Monday. Then drier air pushes in
from the west on Tuesday associated with an upper level trof passing
through the state. Storms on Wednesday and Thursday limited to
mainly the higher terramin east of Tucson. Model suggesting some
return of moisture late in the week for a slight increase in
thunderstorm coverage. Overall not an exciting upcoming convective
week. Daytime temperatures will vary around normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
No storms expected during the morning hours with isold to sctd
-TSRA/-SHRA dvlpg this aftn into this evening. Cloud decks this aftn
and evening around 10k-15k ft msl. Sfc wind generally less than 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through Monday. A drying trend
from west-to-east will then occur Tuesday through Thursday, with
only isolated thunderstorms mainly near mountains east of Tucson by
Thursday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will then prevail next
Friday and Saturday. Winds through the period will favor typical
upslope/downvalley diurnal trends except near thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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