Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 140422
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with passing high clouds into this
weekend. Expect near record daytime temperatures into Tuesday. A
system moving north of the area will bring cooler temperatures late
in the week, but above normal temperatures to continue next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Although we did see a few spots set or tie record
highs, the extensive mid to high level cloud cover kept most areas
from reaching their potential this afternoon. High clouds continue
to move across the area this evening with no change during the
overnight hours. See previous discussion below for further details
in the forecast for the remainder of the week into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 15/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL through the forecast period. Light
SFC winds overnight into Tuesday morning with WLY-NWLY winds around
5-10 kts returning Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures
will prevail through the work week. Temperatures will decrease
closer to seasonal averages Friday into the weekend. 20-ft winds
will be mainly less than 15 mph with some brief gusts to near 20 mph
possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A persistent pattern and forecast for us through
the remainder of this week with continued elevated height and
thickness values and periods of cirroform cloudiness. Daytime
temperatures will back off slightly as the week progresses with a
weak shortwave passing to our north late this week helping to
flatten the flow and drop heights slightly. Some minor differences
in the models on the timing of the shortwave along with the
amplitude Thursday and Friday. This far south it won`t really have a
significant impact but the slower and more amplified ECMWF would
keep daytime temperatures a couple degrees cooler this weekend than
currently advertised. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC is latching onto west coast
trouging with a weak southern stream shortwave perhaps moving
through Arizona by about next Tuesday which is just beyond the scope
of this forecast package. Still lots of uncertainty this far out but
this is a change from prior solutions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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