Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 162156
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 PM MST THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
NEAR 28N/119W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NEWD TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
EARLY FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. THIS WEAK UPPER
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SE AZ FRI AS A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED OPEN WAVE SYSTEM. MOISTURE MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI. ALTHOUGH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO OCCUR FRI INTO FRI
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SAT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

16/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN. MOISTURE IS THEN
PROGGED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE-
CATEGORY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON BY SUN NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS MON
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE SWRN CONUS TUE-WED. MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON TUE-WED. THEREAFTER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 17/14Z. AFT 17/14Z...SCT CLOUDS
AT 9-13K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA AFT 17/14Z. SURFACE WIND SLY/SWLY AT 8-15 KTS SE
OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD THRU 17/03Z...OTHERWISE SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN
A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL




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