Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 AM MST Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Remaining dry with unseasonably warm daytime
temperatures through today. A storm system will then bring a chance
of showers tonight into Thursday. This system will also bring gusty
winds this afternoon and evening followed by much cooler
temperatures Thursday. Dry conditions with warmer temperatures will
prevail across much of the area Friday into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Clear across the area with band of high clouds over
western Arizona as of 2 am. These clouds will gradually move east
across the area today. Cooler highs versus the past week plus but
still running well above normal. The approaching Pacific storm
system will tighten pressure gradient across the area for gusty S/SW
winds this afternoon. Wind speeds south and east of Tucson will
remain below advisory criteria. Some fire weather concerns which is
addressed in the fire weather section below.

Cold front moving into western Arizona later this afternoon and will
gradually push across the area this evening thru mid-Thursday
morning. Isolated to scattered showers into western Pima county this
evening with coverage increasing overnight as the cold front pushes
east. Can`t rule out a rumble or two of thunder. This system is not
a big precip maker with valleys totals mostly less than 0.25" and
snow amounts up to 3 inches above 7500 feet, especially across the
White Mountains.

Outside of the showers around the area, the most noticeable change
will be high temperatures on Thursday which will run 25-30 degrees
cooler than what has been occurring across the region over the past
two weeks.

Upper level trof axis moves into New Mexico Thursday evening with a
few lingering showers along the AZ/NM border. Overnight lows Friday
morning rather chilly in spots with freezing temperatures possible
in the usual cold spots south and east of Tucson.

Warmer Friday under short wave ridging aloft. Warm-up continues into
Saturday along with an increase in gusty SW winds as a weather
system passes by north of the area. Highs Sunday thru next Tuesday
right around normal.

Large difference showing up with early next week system between more
progressive ECMWF and slower GFS. WPC leaning toward the slower

All in all, after almost two weeks of well above normal and record
breaking high temperatures, the next week plus will see fast moving
storms system pass thru the state with varying degrees of
weather impacts. Ahh the signs of spring.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
SKC conds thru 22/15z then cirrus level clouds will move across the
area from W to E thru 23/00z. Cloud decks will be lowering W of KTUS
btwn 23/00z and 23/06z as isold/sctd -SHRA move in from the W. This
area of lwr clouds and -SHRA will impact KTUS and KOLS after 23/06z.

Other aviation concern will be increasing and gusty sfc winds. Sfc
wind less than 10 kts thru 22/16Z, then bcmg SLY/SWLY at 13-18 kts
and gusts to 25-30 kts, with the strongest wind S/SE of KTUS in the
vcnty of KOLS and KDUG. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions today. A Pacific storm system
will then bring a chance of showers tonight followed by a chance of
showers mainly northeast of Tucson on Thursday. A few snow showers
may occur across the White Mountains northeast of Safford Thursday
night. Dry conditions will then prevail Friday into Sunday. There is
a slight chance of showers across the White Mountains next Monday.

The Pacific storm system will also bring gusty mainly southwest
winds this afternoon into tonight. The combination of strong and
gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity may create critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon across the southern one-third
of Fire Zone 152. At this point however, it looks borderline with
limited coverage and duration, so a Red Flag Warning has not yet
been issued. This will be monitored closely.

There will be some gusty west to northwest winds Thursday, then less
wind Friday into Saturday. Some gusty afternoon west winds are
forecast to return Sunday and next Monday.





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