Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
923 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail into early next week. Breezy
to windy conditions will occur Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure
system approaches from the west. Expect cooler temperatures Thursday
in wake of the low pressure system. A modest warming trend will then
occur this weekend, but daytime temperatures will remain at least a
few degrees below normal.


.DISCUSSION...Dry and breezy conditions will continue the next few
days as a low pressure system approaches and passes through the
region. Wind speeds will be the strongest on Wednesday afternoon and
early evening with critical fire weather conditions being a concern.
A red flag warning has already been posted for far southeast Arizona
for Wednesday. Please refer to the fire weather section in this
product for more details. Otherwise, the current forecast looked on
track so no updates necessary this morning.


Clear skies through the period other than a few passing thin cirrus
clouds. Light and vrbl sfc wind becmg swly at 13-22 kts aft 24/18z
with gusts to arnd 30 kts 24/20z thru 25/01z. Wind slowly easing to
sly less than 10 kts aft 25/03z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 7 PM MST
Wednesday for most of Fire Weather Zones 151 and 152 due to the
combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low relative
humidities and a high to very high fire danger.

A slowly approaching upper level low will cause an increase in SW
winds the next couple of days. Wind speeds this afternoon are
expected to remain just below critical levels across the region,
although conditions may be briefly met across the far SE corner of
Cochise county this afternoon. Winds will be somewhat stronger
Wednesday afternoon with Red Flag conditions expected across most of
zones 151 and 152. Isolated spots in 150 and 153 may briefly reach
criteria but these conditions are not expected to be widespread
enough for a warning at this time.

Beyond Wednesday dry conditions will continue into next week with
afternoon breezes each day, however winds are expected to remain
below red flag thresholds Thursday through the weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION...A broad upper trough remains over the
eastern Pacific and western CONUS this morning, with a low pressure
system embedded within this longwave trough centered just west of
SanFrancisco CA.

Clear skies will continue through tonight as the low pressure system
moves southeastward toward the southern California coast. Some gusty
southwest to west winds will prevail this afternoon, similar to the
past few days.

However, stronger winds will occur Wednesday as the mid-level
gradient tightens ahead of the approaching low pressure system.
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur Wednesday
afternoon and early Wednesday evening from Tucson east and south to
the New Mexico/International borders. Please refer to the Fire
Weather section in this Discussion and AWIPS product PHXRFWTWC
/WMO Header WWUS85 KTWC/ for additional information. At this time,
appears that wind speeds Wednesday afternoon will remain below wind
advisory criteria for most locales.

The upper low is progged via the 24/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC to be over NE
Arizona midday Thursday. Any precipitation with this system will be
well north of this forecast area. The upper low will move into
eastern Colorado Friday, but the broad upper trough will persist
over the western states into early next week. This pattern will
translate into continued dry conditions across southeast Arizona
Friday into Monday with gusty afternoon winds at times.

High temps this afternoon and Wednesday will be quite similar to
temps achieved Monday, then generally 5 degrees or so of cooling
will occur Thursday. A warming trend will then prevail Friday into
Saturday followed by no significant change in daytime temps Sunday
into Monday. High temps early next week are still projected to
remain at least a few degrees below normal.


    Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ151-152.



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