Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 232215
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THRU TUE...
THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ADJACENT THE WEST COAST WED. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO PERIODS OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDS RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST THUR.
MEANWHILE...A POSITIVE-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
SE ARIZONA AND INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. 23/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...OR SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DRIER
SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 2-3 MODEL CYCLES. HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION/DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
WED NIGHT-THUR. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE FRI-SAT AS THE UPPER
HIGH EXPANDS EWD OVER THE SWRN CONUS.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL 23/12Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE UPPER PATTERN SUN-MON.
THE GFS DEPICTED DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR
THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED A 565 DM LOW CENTERED
NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA SUN. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA BY MON EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS CONTINUED
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DEPICTED THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT OCCURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
EVEN WARMER TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPS SUN. SOME LOCALES SHOULD ENCROACH UPON RECORD TEMPERATURE
TERRITORY THIS WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
MON...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF THIS COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WITH ONLY SWATHS
OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL OCCASIONALLY PASSING OVER SE AZ.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.