Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250321
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
820 PM MST SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS MONDAY AREA
WIDE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A FEW BREEZES AND STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOR NOW
ANYWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 90+KT JET
STREAK MOVING INTO ARIZONA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE.
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH MOST LOCALES SEEING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS AS OF 03Z. MEANWHILE TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN OFF WITH DESERT
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND APPROACH THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH SUCH LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM. MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WINDS AND THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE LEFT INTACT WITH NO CHANGES. MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WILL BE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY APPROACH 20G30KTS FROM 20Z INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE RELAXING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. A STRONGER STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY
RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AREA WIDE WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MET ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THUS
HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MONDAY TO RED FLAG WARNING.
THE WARNING ON MONDAY WILL RUN FROM 12 NOON TO 8 PM.

NOT AS WINDY AND COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BREAK IN THE WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WE COULD SEE WINDS
AND RH VALUES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
152 (SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY).

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
JUST ABOUT A PICTURE PERFECT LATE APRIL AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL LOOKING AT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY IN COCHISE COUNTY.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY PLACING THE STRONGEST LOW TO MID LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE VERY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER REVIEWING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WILL NUDGE UP WINDS
MONDAY JUST ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY
WHERE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...GUSTS ELSEWHERE
WILL BE UP TO 45 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WILLCOX PLAYA AND IN PINAL COUNTY.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN PRONE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF MOUNTAINS SUCH AS
SIERRA VISTA AS THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH.
THEREAFTER...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON TUESDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS OF COCHISE COUNTY ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASED
WINDS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND A RETURN TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A LITTLE INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO MAINLY
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THEN WITH GRADUAL
WARMING OTHERWISE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS WEEK...MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE...THEN AGAIN PRIMARILY ON
THURSDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ501>515.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ150>152
    BELOW 7000 FEET.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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