Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271006
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN
UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS OVER THE PAST
18 HOURS HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. TRENDS ARE UP ABOUT ABOUT 15
DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. AS THIS JOINS THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE...THE DEEPENING MOISTURE TREND
WILL SERVE AN INCREASING CONVECTION TREND BY TUESDAY.

WE ALSO HAVE OTHER CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER NICELY TO ADD TO THE
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM TREND. THE MODEST MID LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED
FIRE THE LARGE COMPLEX THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO LAST NIGHT WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TO STACK THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THIS
FLOW WILL LIFT INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. BEST THUNDERSTORM DAYS OF
THE WEEK FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
UPPER LEVELS FAVOR ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT.

AFTER THAT...BY FRIDAY AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW
SETS UP UNDER A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE HIGH POSITION NORTH OF OUR
AREA. WE`LL DIAL BACK TO SOMETHING NEAR CLIMO FOR OUR PROBABILITIES
AT THAT POINT AND KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR
FEATURES IN THE FLOW PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL. BETWEEN 27/19Z AND
28/03Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS INCLUDING
KDUG/KOLS WITH PERHAPS AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF
KSAD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCE...SFC WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FROM FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER ALL SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA ZONES. STRONG OUTFLOWS NEAR STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN
AND LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DEVELOP AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/FRENCH


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