Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 081002
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUSY DAY YESTERDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TODAY.
DEEP MOISTURE ENTRENCHED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1.5 TO
1.7 INCHES. WE`RE ACTUALLY GETTING BETTER CLEARING THIS MORNING FOR
A CHANGE. NICE FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AN INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD COMBINE NICELY WITH THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FIELD ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE TO HELP
ORGANIZE STORMS TODAY. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOW WITH
INITIAL BLOWING DUST ISSUES. HOPEFULLY SOME OF THE DUST ISSUES WILL
BE HELPED BY RECENT RAINFALL BUT DON`T COUNT ON IT. HEAVY RAIN AGAIN
A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING ANYWHERE ANY TIME
SOON EVEN AS SOME TROUGHINESS TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AS IT RECONSOLIDATES
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS PERFECT FOR MORE PRONOUNCED
EASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY...AND THAT`S EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF STARTS TO
SHOW BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/10Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AGAIN DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD BETWEEN 08/19Z AND 09/03Z. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR +TSRA.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT TO 40 KTS NR TSRA
OUTFLOWS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION AGAIN TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS DUE TO THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SLOW STORM MOTION.  TUESDAY HAS A BETTER THREAT OF
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS.  EXPECT THE DAILY CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN





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