Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 182135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOG EAST OF
TUCSON. FRIDAY ONWARD EXPECT DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEY LOCATION EAST OF TUCSON. FOR THESE LOCATION HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED FREEZING FOG MENTION AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FOG MENTION ACROSS THE CITY OF TUCSON AND
SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON
THIS MAYBE NOT HAPPEN. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TUCSON AND SOUTH WILL
BE FROST POTENTIAL AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN UP WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...OUTLYING AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME FROST IN THE
AM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DRY OUT
RATHER QUICKLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. THOUGH...THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. AS BY CHRISTMAS GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EDGING THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS NOW AS EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN IT BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL LIMIT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA.
STILL...QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO EVOLVE SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NEAR PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD
DECKS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM 3-6K FT AGL...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE
OUT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING BELOW 2 SM ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
NORTHWEST BREEZES MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL
ENTER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...81

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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