Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 162051 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z SOUNDING AT KTUS SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.67 INCHES. MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BTWN 10 AND 20
KFT AND NORTHEAST 15-20 KTS AT 20-25 KFT. WHILE THIS IS STRONGER
THAN FRIDAY AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND THE RAINFALL OF RECENT DAYS...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
PROMINENT CONCERN.

STORMS TO THE NE OF TUCSON WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT
TRANSITION TO A MORE STRAIGHT WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PUSH INTO TUCSON METRO AROUND 00Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO GENERATE CONSISTENT
OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY. THIS MAY MEAN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DESPITE
ANY RECENT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED.

STORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL ALSO DRIFT WESTWARD...BUT
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE
BORDER SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD GIVE US A LATER START SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

LOOKING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE UPER HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS SHIFTS UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.  FROM THERE DISAGREEMENTS EXIST AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SW PUSHES INTO AZ LATE WED INTO
THU OR IF ANOTHER SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
THE STATE.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO THIS EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
SOUTHWESTWARD AND FAVOR LOCALES WEST TO SOUTH OF KTUS LATER TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF -TSRA/-SHRA IS THEN EXPECTED TO END AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT 5-10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOLLOWED BY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND BE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DROZD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON















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