Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 111049
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
349 AM MST THU SEP 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
MODEST COOLING EARLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING STEADY LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALSO OVER THE GULF COAST
AND EXTENDING WEST TOWARD WEST TEXAS...NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH CENTERS... ARIZONA RESIDES UNDER
A COL WITH WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR CENTRAL BAJA.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERING
ALL OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
NATION. CLOSER TO HOME...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA IS COVERED BY
VERY DRY AIR WITH THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 1.1 INCHES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEAR NEW MEXICO...BUT EVEN THAT IS
DOUBTFUL...THUS THE ONLY 10% PERCENT POPS ALONG THOSE AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY FRIDAY INCREASING WINDS TO OUR EAST OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY/BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
HELP TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
CENTRAL DESERTS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

AS ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM (ODILE)...HEADS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...REACHING A
POSITION A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY AROUND LATE MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...THE WINDS IN THIS CASE WILL USHER
MOISTURE MOSTLY TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH. THAT SAID...JUST HAVE
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEGINNING MONDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF MY FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
DESERTS/VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THAT
PERIOD. OF COURSE THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUALLY BE
REEVALUATED WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN...SO STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES AND
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SEEPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ENHANCED COVERAGE
OF MID CLOUDS FEW-SCT AT 8-12K FT AGL...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA/-SHRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SE CORNER OF THE
STATE...LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN...EXCEPT WITH OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY EVENING WE WILL SEE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE EAST WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...
ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS POSSIBLE.

SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH ODILE`S
INFLUENCE REACHING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND ALSO IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT FOR NOW JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY...
MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS





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