Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 152239
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
339 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL
OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE ODILE. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE ODILE WHICH WAS POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE BAJA SPUR OVER LAND. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAD ODILE ON A LITTLE
FATHER EAST TRACK COMPARED TO PROJECTED TRACKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS NEW TRACK HAD RESULTED IN A BETTER CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF
RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...THE TIMING OF THE PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
LESS CERTAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL CAN BE ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
TOTAL 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/00Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND
NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.  SCT CUMULUS
AROUND 8K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE 12K FT.  AFTER 16/06Z
AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 5K FT AGL DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABOVE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT
STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE VICINITY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HURRICANE ODILE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  WITH THAT COMES INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ONWARD.  THE STORMS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING
STORMS...DAY OR NIGHT.  THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF ODILE WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD OF
TIME...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY ONWARD...BUT WITH NO
PRONOUNCED DRYING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON FOR AZZ501-505-506-509-510.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
  AZZ507-508-512-513.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON FOR AZZ502>504-511-514-515.

&&

$$

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