Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 150904
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 AM MST Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures
will continue this week. Gusty east to southeast winds will also
occur at times this afternoon into early Tuesday. Expect cooler
temperatures with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly near the White Mountains late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather remains in place across the region once
again this morning as only a few high clouds are noted on IR
satellite as of 09Z. Longwave ridging is evident across the area per
water vapor imagery with a cold front clearly visible from the Great
Lakes through Oklahoma and into New Mexico. Quite an impressive
front as the mid level GOES-16 water vapor channel is picking up
some of the near surface features associated with it as it makes its
way through the TX panhandle.

This cold front will bring increased easterly winds to the area
later today along with slightly cooler temperatures to areas east of
Tucson. Points from Tucson westward will likely see similar
temperatures to those we`ve seen for much of the past week with
highs in the low/mid 90s. Similar story expected for Monday with
another round of persistent easterly winds (albeit with slightly
lower speeds) with desert temps in the low/mid 90s. Easterly winds
will relax across the area on Tuesday through Thursday although
temps will remain virtually unchanged from day to day.

Finally - a change from the norm late in the week as deterministic
and probabilistic guidance continue to point to a trough moving
through the Great Basin and into the Four Corners late in the
week/into the weekend. Nearly all guidance is suggesting an increase
in clouds/moisture ahead of the trough, but are less than
enthusiastic about precip chances (especially in the lower
elevations). There could be a few terrain driven sprinkles or a
brief shower that occurs in the White Mountains this coming weekend,
otherwise it appears precip chances are slim given the trajectory of
the trough. Maintained the idea of a mention of precip in the
northern parts of Graham/Greenlee Co`s on Saturday but this should
be short lived. If nothing else it will knock lower elevation
temperatures back a few degrees into the mid/upper 80s late in the
week/early next weekend.  Some of the more protected high elevation
valleys could see readings fall into the upper 30s Sunday morning if
clouds manage to clear out fast enough. Following the trough - more
sunny/dry weather in the cards to close out next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 16/12Z.
FEW to SCT clouds at 20-25k ft AGL possible area wide overnight.
Surface wind variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts. Surface
wind Sunday into Sunday evening ely/sely 8-18 kts with occasional
gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through Friday followed
by a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the New
Mexico border next Saturday. Gusty east to southeast winds will
occur at times Sunday into early Tuesday. Normal diurnal wind trends
with occasional afternoon west to southwest gusts will then prevail
during the latter part of the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Discussion...Leins

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