Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262246
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CLIFTON-SAFFORD-TUCSON-SELLS LINE AT THIS TIME.
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

26/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THRU SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES
CENTERED SE OF THE AREA...AND AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
YET AGAIN ADJACENT THE WEST COAST.

AT ANY RATE...THIS BROAD SCALE PATTERN SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THUR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN BE CONFINED MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH FRI INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY FRI-WED. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL THUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN
PREVAIL MAINLY FROM KTUS EAST AND SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS


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