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000
FXUS65 KTWC 120921
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 AM MST SUN MAY 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN SONORA WILL
MEANDER AROUND NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...BRINGING A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH HIGHS NEAR
100 DEGREES IN LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AND 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORE MODEST CONVECTION YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF MID
LEVEL WARMING CAPPING THINGS OFF. AFTER ABOUT 450 LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR CWA FRIDAY...WE SAW NONE YESTERDAY. SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE
ADDED TO THE MORE REMOTE POSITION FOR LOW IN NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
PROBABLY SEE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION STRUGGLING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE MODERATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

LARGE SCALE WEST COAST RIDGE PHASES INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DIRTY THINGS UP...BUT NET
GAIN IN HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ADD UP TO A HEATING TREND BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TO START THE NEW WEEK. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW
SHEARING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK...WE WILL HAVE
ROOM TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE UPPER 90S...POTENTIALLY GETTING CLOSE TO
THE FIRST 100 AT TIA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY (RIGHT NOW WE ARE
FORECASTING THE 98 TO 99 RANGE). REGARDLESS...WE WOULD BE SURPRISED
IF WE DON`T GET THAT PARTICULAR RITE OF SPRING OUT OF THE WAY IN THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-SCT CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL THRU 13/09Z. LCL SCT-BKN
CLOUDS VCNTY MTNS EAST OF KTUS FROM 12/18Z THRU 13/03Z WITH ISOLD
-TSRA POSSIBLE. SURFACE WIND ELY-SELY 5-10 KT THRU 12/15Z THEN
INCREASING TO 10-25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH TODAY. SOME EXPOSED RIDGES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED EASTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE MET. THEREAFTER...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH MORE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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