Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 040407
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
907 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA COASTLINE ALONG THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THE DRY TAIL-END OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY PROVIDING A VERY MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE AREA OTHER
THAN A SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...RESULTING IN A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. IN FACT...MAXIMUM
TEMPS SUPERBOWL SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGS F WARMER THAN AFTERNOON
READINGS TODAY.

INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S WHICH ARE AROUND 12-16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH LOWS A SMIDGE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

DRY FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS...EVEN WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
IT...WITH A NICE WARM UP AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THRU
FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THEN START TO MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP THE WEST COAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
ANY PACIFIC STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME IS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT POSSIBLE CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE AROUND VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
SKC WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN
CIRRUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT /UNDER 12
KTS/ WITH A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT COMPARED TO NORMAL
TRENDS. A MORE PRONOUNCED EAST WIND IN PLACE THURSDAY LATE-MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING EAST WINDS FROM
THURSDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER
15 MPH...THOUGH AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS MAY SEE SOME STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LAG SLIGHTLY
BEHIND...NOT APPROACHING NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LINGERING COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HELP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REBOUNDS IN THE MEANTIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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