Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 170336
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
835 PM MST THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH MORE CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS STILL
ON TRACK. THUS...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY UPDATES THIS EVENING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 17/14Z. AFT
17/14Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 9-13K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR -SHRA AFT 17/14Z. SURFACE WIND
SLY/SWLY AT 8-15 KTS SE OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD THRU
17/03Z...OTHERWISE SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN
A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR NEAR 28N/119W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NEWD TO NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. THIS WEAK
UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SE AZ FRI AS A
NEGATIVELY- TILTED OPEN WAVE SYSTEM. MOISTURE MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI.
ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO OCCUR FRI INTO FRI
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SAT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

16/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN. MOISTURE IS THEN
PROGGED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE-
CATEGORY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON BY SUN NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS MON
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE SWRN CONUS TUE-WED. MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON TUE-WED. THEREAFTER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







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