Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270925
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AND INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCH FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ARIZONA.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO ARIZONA BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. FARTHER SOUTH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL EXCEPT COCHISE
COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER COCHISE COUNTY AND COMBINE THE WINDS
WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WE WILL HAVE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THAT AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON (SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY TAKING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT IN THE
PROCESS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVES TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AND WRN
ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND OVER NRN ARIZONA DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY TAKING WHAT LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IT WILL
BRING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHEN HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO
4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
SKC TO SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU MID-MORNING. AFT 27/17Z...SFC WINDS BECOMING
WLY/SWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS WILL RELAX TO
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 28/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH SWLY TO NWLY WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 BELOW 5000 FEET.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO
17 PCT IN THE WATCH AREA.

THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP POSE THE
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT
      FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR
      SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 BELOW 5000 FEET.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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