Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262213
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ONGOING WEST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION SEWD INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. MEANWHILE...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE
OF SAFFORD. GIVEN THE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...HAVE TO AGREE WITH
THE 20Z RUC HRRR DEPICTION OF CONTINUED SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY WEST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY RAINFALL OF
SIGNIFICANCE ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA INTO THIS EVENING. FOR
NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
TUCSON THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGGED TO END ACROSS THE AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ESSENTIALLY FROM TUCSON WWD/NWD LATE TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN CONUS SAT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS EXISTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS PINAL
COUNTY...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE AS FAR EAST AS GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES.

GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NEVADA SAT NIGHT-SUN. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SUN...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL SUN ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN OVER UTAH/IDAHO MON MORNING AND
EJECT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MON NIGHT. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE COUNTIES MON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MON NIGHT-FRI
UNDER WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-55
KTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 4-10K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU TONIGHT...THEN SURFACE WIND SATURDAY WILL BE SLY/
SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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