Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 152100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A slight chance of thunderstorms from Tucson east this
afternoon followed by dry conditions Wednesday into Friday. Expect
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to return this weekend into
early next week. Daytime temperatures quite close to seasonal
normals except a few degrees above normal Thursday into Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...Clear skies west of Tucson this afternoon with
partly cloudy skies from Tucson east with just enough moisture for a
few showers and thunderstorms. These will quickly dissipate early
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Larger scale flow
pattern features westerly flow aloft across southeast Arizona in
response to troughing extending from the Great Basin into northern
Arizona. Drier air making its way eastward across the area will
result in the monsoon shutting down across the forecast area through
Friday. Given the troughiness and slightly lower heights the next
couple of days, that will prevent the temperatures from getting too
warm even with the drying taking place as highs will remain just
slightly above normal.

Heading into the weekend, the flow pattern will become more
favorable to bring in monsoon moisture into the area from the south.
This moisture will lead to a return of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms starting Saturday and continuing into early next
week. The most active time will likely be Sunday into Monday as a
potential inverted trough is nearby. With increased moisture,
temperatures starting Sunday will return to near seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL mainly east of a KOLS to KTUS to
KPAN line. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA into early this evening from KTUS
east. Clear skies west of KTUS. Surface wind sly/swly at 8-16 kts
with gusts to near 25 kts through 16/03Z, with the strongest speeds
east of KTUS. Surface wind less than 12 kts aft 16/03Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers and thunderstorms will occur from
Tucson east this afternoon followed by dry conditions Wednesday into
Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will then
return this weekend. 20-foot winds will be a little elevated this
afternoon, with afternoon/early evening south to southwest winds of
13-18 mph. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven
and less than 15 mph apart from any thunderstorms outflows.





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