Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260426
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING ABOUT THE PAST
30-60 MINUTES ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. THE REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP
ECHOES AS PER KEMX WSR-88D AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
CLEARING SKIES MAY THEN OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FRI FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA WILL MOSTLY END AROUND 26/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH
OF KTUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE
WIND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY MAY BE A BIT LESS ACTIVE DAY BUT
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY
LIGHTNING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED THIS WEEKEND. WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN AND RECONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON NORTH AND WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WEAK INVERTED
TROUGHS IN THE FLOW TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION...PERHAPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THESE ARE SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS
FAR OUT. BOTTOM LINE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR AN
OVERALL MID GRADE MONSOON THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT CERTAINLY
ACTIVE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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