Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240945
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
244 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An increase in deeper moisture will result in an
upswing in thunderstorm activity during the week. Daytime
temperatures will generally trend a few degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest models continued to show a more favorable flow
pattern to pull deeper moisture pooled south of the International
Border northward into the area. This pattern change will be ongoing
through the week with the upper high initially becoming centered near
the four corners region by Tuesday. The GFS model then showed the
upper high amplifying more and shifting to a position over southern
Nevada around Thursday and Friday. Both of these locations of the
upper high typically favor an increase in daily thunderstorm
activity across the state. The increase in moisture and the
subsequent cloudiness as well as rainfall will moderate daytime
temperatures a bit this week.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
Few-sctd clds at 10-14K FT AGL and sctd-bkn clds aoa 20K FT AGL thru
24/18z. Aft 24/18z...sctd clds at 6-10K FT AGL and sct-bkn clds at
10-15K FT AGL. Isold to sctd TSRA/SHRA dvlpg btwn 24/17z and
24/20z, contg thru 25/04z. Hier chcs for TSRA/SHRA at KDUG and KOLS
trmls this aftn/eve. Brf wnd gsts to 45 kts and MVFR cond with the
stgr TSRA. Otrw, sfc wnd w/nw at 10-18 kts with gsts to arnd 20-25
kts btwn 24/19z and 25/03z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the eastern half of southeast Arizona today. An
upswing in activity with greater coverage is then expected through
the upcoming work week. Outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow winds,
20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph. The exception will
be over far eastern portions of the forecast area today...roughly
east of a the line from Sierra Vista to Safford, where west to
northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and higher gusts are possible.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

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