Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 221004
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST SUN MAR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FOR DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGES MODELS SUGGEST A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM DIFFERS QUITE A BIT. AT ANY
RATE...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SKC
CONDITIONS TO A FEW CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU 22/21Z...THEN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL AFT 22/21Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 22/18Z
AND AGAIN AFT 23/03Z. SURFACE WIND BETWEEN 22/18Z AND 23/03Z WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 8-15 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHS TOPPING OUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
MPH...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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