Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 161635
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL THEN BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
NEAR 27N/121W WILL MOVE NEWD TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SE AZ FRI AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED OPEN
WAVE SYSTEM. SOME VIRGA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE
INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR SAT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA.

16/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE 16/00Z ECMWF WITH DEPICTING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN.
MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON SUN-MON. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS TUE-WED. MOISTURE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
TUCSON AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TUE-WED.

A FEW DEGS OF DAILY COOLING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND FRI FOLLOWED BY
VERY MINOR DAILY TEMP CHANGES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR SOME CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WLY/NWLY AT
8-15 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAY BRING
A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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