Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232235
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN
CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO AS WELL AS OVER
NRN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
VIA THE 23/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR WITH PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY
AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
AGAIN MON.

ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE REGIME WILL BE QUITE DRY...THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINGLE DIGIT POPS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY FRI. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-
TUE. EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
NEXT SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NE OF KSAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR KTUS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT
OTHER TIMES. SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS TO NEAR
THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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FRANCIS


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