Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 081640
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES
TO BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DRY AND MORE DRY WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH.

AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH WITH POSITIONS
RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHENEVER WE HAVE A FRONT RANGE POSITION IT CAN ENHANCE AN EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL THROUGH 09/03Z THEN BECMG
SKC. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/CERNIGLIA

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