Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 171644

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
944 AM MST Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers are possible late this afternoon and
evening across southern Cochise county. Otherwise look for an
increase in high clouds today with afternoon highs again above
normal. A fast moving disturbance will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly near eastern
mountains. Expect some minor cooling Friday and Saturday, then
near record high temperatures are possible early next week as high
pressure aloft builds over the area.


.DISCUSSION...I guess Fall is out of the question? High pressure
over the northwest Mexico through our area and southern California
will continue to bring temperatures around 10 degrees above
average over the next few days. Our portion of the ridge is
dirtying up as a weakness in the flow brings a modest moisture
increase from the west at mid levels, pushing our precipitable
water up past .9 inches. We`ve also seen a southeasterly surface
flow bring in 40+ dew points (up 5 to 12 degrees over the past 24
hours). Some virga as the cloud cover thickens a bit today, with
a few light showers possible near the mountains mainly southeast
of Tucson.

No updates this morning. With a few minor exceptions, the main
story will continue to be the unseasonable high temperatures, with
near record values possible early next week.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 18/18Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL and SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft
AGL. Between 17/21Z and 18/06Z, there will be a slight chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA, mainly east of KFHU to KSAD line. SFC wind will be
ely/sely at 5-15 kts with some gusts to near 20 kts thru 17/17Z,
with SFC wind aft 17/17Z less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance will result in a slight chance of
showers into Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail into the middle of
next week. There will be some gusty east to southeast winds
through the late morning hours today, followed by normal diurnal
wind trends during the latter part of the week and into next week.
Expect occasional afternoon gusts due to daytime heating.


.PREV DISCUSSION...A weak upper level trof will push across the
state Wednesday night into Thursday with a slight chance of light
showers, possibly a t-storm north-northeast of Tucson. Well above
normal high temperatures to continue Wednesday and Thursday.

Dry zonal flow over the area Friday and Saturday with slight cooler
daytime temperatures but still remaining above normal. Cooler
overnight lows Sunday and Monday mornings with a few of the colder
spots east of Tucson seeing lows in the low to mid 30s.

Daytime temperatures ramp back up to well above normal early next
week as strong high pressure aloft builds over the area.






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