Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 170945
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH LOCALIZED ONE INCH
TOTALS EAST OF BENSON.

CENTER OF UPPER HIGH...WHICH WAS NEAR FLAGSTAFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL BE OVER NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
E-SE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER SE ARIZONA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 1.25" ERN AREAS TO 1.50" WRN
AREAS. SO FOR TODAY WILL GO WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY...E-SE FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH OVER NRN NM. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE A TICK WETTER THAN TODAY. LOOKING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH IS OVER THE PACIFIC NW TODAY...WILL DROP INTO NRN CA AND
DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF NRN CA CST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A
PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED NRN CA
UPPER LOW DROPS S ALONG THE CA CST AND BE OFF LA BASIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1.50"-1.80" RANGE.

CHAOS REIGNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECTS TO WHERE
THE ABOVE MENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE AND HOW MUCH THE TROPICS
START TO BE PLAYER. AT THIS TIME...AND WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLES HAVE MANY SOLUTIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WET WEEK ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MNLY S-SE OF KTUS
THRU 17/14Z. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING.
SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR MAINLY E AND S OF KTUS AFTER 17/19Z.
MVFR VSBYS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SFC WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOLLOWED BY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND BE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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