Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED STREAM OF MAINLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN AZ. RATHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTY EAST WINDS AROUND LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN 4-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE BRINGING WET WEATHER TO THE AREA TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK HAS ALREADY BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA SPUR THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IS DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER S.

TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF DURANGO AND SRN SONORA WITH PRECIPITABLE (PW)
VALUES UP TO 0.80" JUST SOUTH OF HERMOSILLO.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH WITH PW
VALUES ACROSS SRN ARIZONA RISING TO OVER A HALF AN INCH. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING S AND W OF TUCSON AS PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1".

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AREAWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
W OF TUCSON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF VALUES W OF TUCSON WITH
THIS AREA HAVING OF PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1".
CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 0.20" W OF TUCSON BUT THIS MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT N THRU SRN CA.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT THIS TIME PER GFS/EC MODELS. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UP TO CLIMO BASED POP GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE LATEST AVIATION
PRODUCTS...WET WEATHER AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA
COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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