Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020413
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC
FROM AROUND THE STATE SHOWS A LARGE STORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE RIM AND BETWEEN
FLAGSTAFF AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND MINUS 71 TO 77 DEGS CELSIUS. RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
MARCHING WEST TOWARD THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

CLOSER TO HOME...I ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 7 PM
MST THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
MY FORECAST AREA. WE GOT TO A GOOD START IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINERS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES...BUT AS THE STORM ANVILS
CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...IT QUICKLY SHUT US DOWN. I KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL A
THREAT AFTER THAT TIME...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTION BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN OUTFLOWS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS LATER TONIGHT.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 81 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 96 DEGS...
WHICH WAS 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM
TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL ADJUST
THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ONGOING TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND MOSTLY FEW TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH
OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW.

SO...A RELATIVE DOWN COVERAGE DAY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION DAY
STARTING BACK UP FRIDAY AS THE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
INTENSIFIES. BY SATURDAY A LONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A BUSY WEEKEND WITH WET STORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER


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