Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOTTER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WERE ONGOING ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF COCHISE
COUNTY...SE GRAHAM COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF GREENLEE COUNTY. DEWPOINTS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S.
THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F HIGHER FROM TUCSON WWD VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO...BUT WERE NEARLY 2-5 DEGS F LOWER ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
28/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.41 INCHES WAS
DOWN ABOUT 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S RANGING FROM MINUS 2-4 DEPENDING UPON
LIFTING METHOD. THE 700-300 MB FLOW WAS QUITE LIGHT...WITH MAINLY
WLY/NWLY SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. 28/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS CONTINUED TO
DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS WITH A 595 DM
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO. LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS SE ARIZONA ABOVE 700 MB.

28/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS WERE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY
NOON TO BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN
ERN COCHISE COUNTY AND THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM COUNTY. THE
BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW AND GENERALLY SEWD. HOWEVER...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN VALLEY LOCALES AS FAR
WEST AS TUCSON DUE TO DEVELOPMENT FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-
45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY...THEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...SATURDAY AFTERNOON DOESN`T LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD...BUT BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OUR MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PICKING UP A BIT EAST OF TUCSON. THIS
WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED EASTERLY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT AND
SHOULD PUSH SOME STORMS DEEPER INTO OUR CWA (INCLUDING THE TUCSON
AREA) EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT HOTTER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF STORMS.

EVEN AS THE RIDGE DEEPENS THROUGH NORTHERN TIER STATES IN OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM
CONDITIONS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY FEATURES IN SONORA.

THERE`S ONLY SO LONG WE CAN MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
FLOW HOWEVER...SO A DRYING TREND WILL KICK IN SOONER OR LATER IF THE
REGION KEEPS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER



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