Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 242136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. MOST STORMS WILL THEN RETREAT CLOSER TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND EASTERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER STRONG UPSWING IN ACTIVITY OCCURS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...EASTERN PIMA AND NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO GET GOING TODAY.
DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO ADVECT IN...ALONG WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT
AT THE MID LEVELS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. DUE TO
LACK OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS FROM TUCSON NORTH AND WEST AND LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN DOUGLAS AND NOGALES.

OTHERWISE...DECREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO LOWER AND WARMER AIR AT
THE MID LEVELS LIMITS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH LESS MOISTURE...CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AT 100-102
DEGREES IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

THE UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTS BACK EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ROTATING UNDER THE HIGH AND INTO OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...
WITH READINGS FALLING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8K FT AGL WITH ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
25/03Z...WITH INTERNATIONAL BORDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING
KOLS/KDUG/KALK SEEING THE MOST ACTIVITY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCE...SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL
TRENDS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. OVERNIGHT ISO-SCT -SHRA
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY...
COVERAGE OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MAINLY BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
A BIT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS IN AND AROUND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SEE VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.