Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 132154
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING.
MODELS WERE STILL ADVERTISING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO PICK UP IN
SPEED AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SOME MOISTURE MOVED BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
YESTERDAY WHICH BROUGHT AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING.
THE AIRMASS WAS TRYING TO RECOUP TODAY FROM THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
BUT CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MANAGING TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WEST OF NOGALES. THAT SAID...THE BEST AREA TO SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF TUCSON. THIS WAS
IN LINE WITH WHAT SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE
SHOWING FOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WILL
HINGE ON THE TRACK OF ODILE WHICH LOOKED FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME TO
AID IN SURGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE TAIL END OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE
WEST COAST. THIS POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE RIGHT COMBINATION FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO LATE
THURSDAY. THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL...BUT IT WILL BE FAIR TO SAY THAT A RETURN TO A WETTER
PERIOD FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CAN BE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/00Z.
FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING.
THUS...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SANTA CRUZ AND SW PIMA
COUNTY THRU 14/04Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE KOLS TERMINAL.  CONVECTION
MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 14/20Z THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AS
TODAY.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN WE HAD THIS
MORNING.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
PIMA COUNTIES AND OVER THE WHITES INTO THE EVENING THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
MOVING OVER THE REGIONS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK IN PART DUE TO
TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
AND A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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