Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FXUS65 KTWC 150821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 AM MST SAT OCT 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A rather static weather pattern across the Southwest
will maintain the mostly clear and mild weather conditions into the
middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Not much going on weather wise in our neck of the woods
while wild weather occurs elsewhere (Pac NW comes to mind). Basically
have a ridge of high pressure to our south with the rather strong
westerlies well to the north resulting in dry and light westerly flow
across our region. What that means is continued sunny days with
warmer than normal temperatures and cool overnight temperatures due
to the clear skies and dry air mass. The afternoon high temperatures
will very slowly trend downward today onward finally getting closer
to mid October normals by Thursday.

There is decent potential for a back door cold front to move west
across much of the area late next week resulting in somewhat cooler
temps east of Tucson and a decent easterly breeze. Differences remain
in the model world with the significance of the front but over the
last few days it looks as though the ECMWF is trending toward the
more pronounced GFS solutions. Current forecast package trends toward
that thought.


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
Expect clear skies below 20k ft through Sunday with surface winds
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and low humidity levels will
prevail into early next week under high pressure aloft. Light
drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours with
generally westerly 20 foot winds of 5 to 15 mph and occasional
higher gusts during the afternoons. A backdoor cold front could
bring a period of stronger winds to southeast Arizona out of the
east during the latter half of next week, but model differences
concerning the westward progress of the front make this a relatively
low confidence scenario.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.