Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 142042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 PM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly east to
south of Tucson into this evening. With the exception of a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms near the New Mexico border
Tuesday, dry conditions will prevail Tuesday through Friday. A
chance of thunderstorms will return this weekend. Daytime
temperatures will be near to just slightly above seasonal normals
through the forecast period.


.DISCUSSION...With westerly flow aloft gradually transporting
drier air into the forecast area, we`re seeing the bulk of the
shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the higher
terrain of Cochise County where the greatest moisture and
instability is present. For locales further west, including the
Tucson Metro, we haven`t seen much more than some cumulus build-ups.
These trends are expected to continue for the remainder of the day
and into this evening. We can`t rule out a stray shower near Tucson,
but the bulk of the activity will remain across eastern areas before
tapering off during the evening hours.

With dry westerly flow over the region for much of the week,
monsoonal moisture will be shunted to the south and east of our
area. There could still be just enough residual moisture near the
New Mexico border Tuesday for a stray shower or thunderstorm, but
otherwise the area will remain dry through Friday. By this weekend,
the mid/upper level flow will become more conducive to bring
moisture back into Arizona as the subtropical high orients itself to
the east of our area, opening up southerly flow to transport
moisture northward. There are some indications that an inverted
trough by Sunday and Monday may result in a more active period then.
Still plenty of time to iron out those details. Meanwhile, even with
the drying this week, temperatures will remain near to only just a
couple of degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 16/00Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near KDUG into this
evening. Brief wind gusts near 40 kts and small hail with the
stronger TSRA. Otherwise, surface wind wly/nwly at 8-18 kts with
gusts near 25 kts at KSAD through 15/03Z. Surface wind will be
variable in direction and less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will mainly south and east of Tucson into this evening. Still a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm near the New Mexico border
Tuesday, otherwise dry conditions Tuesday through Friday. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return this weekend. 20-
foot winds will generally be terrain driven and less than 15 mph
apart from any thunderstorms outflows. The exception will be in the
upper Gila River valley both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon,
where gusty northwest winds are expected.






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