Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

226
FXUS65 KTWC 081025
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA
TODAY...THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTED OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC AND CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (CONUS) THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER OREGON...
AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED SW OF SE ARIZONA NEAR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR. FAIRLY THICK MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS EXTENDED
FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW EWD INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED GRADUALLY THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

08/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU FRI. THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE BULK OF THICKER CLOUDS
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THEN CLEAR SKIES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WED-FRI.

FOR THE SAT-MON PERIOD...THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE GFS MOVED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NEAR
THE OREGON COAST AND FURTHER SW TO NEAR 30N/130W. THE GFS THEN MOVED
THESE UPPER LOWS SWD TO JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIF COAST AND TO NEAR
20N/125W BY MIDDAY MON. THE GFS SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED LIGHT LIQUID
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
NEXT MON.

HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DEPICTED A MUCH DIFFERENT SCENARIO...AND WAS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS DEPICTED VIA THE ECMWF TO EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO
CENTRAL CALIF SAT...THEN THIS POSITIVE-TILTED OPEN WAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUN. THE ECMWF
SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME ACROSS THE
SWRN CONUS NEXT MON IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST
COAST.

PER COORD WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST UNIT...THE 08/00Z GFS/
GEFS WERE THE UNIQUE SOLUTIONS VERSUS THE 08/00Z ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLES
WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED LOWS WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS/GEFS SCENARIO IS A POSSIBILITY...THESE SOLUTIONS
WERE DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF/CMC
SOLUTIONS. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD IS THRU NEXT SUN...
EXPECT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SAT-MON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGARDING HIGH TEMPS TODAY...WARMER TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY
FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MARKEDLY INCREASED
INSOLATION VERSUS SUN. THE FORECAST HIGH TEMP FOR THE TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY OF 80 DEGS IS JUST ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD OF 81 DEGS SET IN 2006 AND SUBSEQUENT YEARS.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS BELOW THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR
MANY LOCALES. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO ADJUST REFERENCES TO RECORD TEMPS
IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z.
VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL THROUGH 09/03Z THEN BECMG
SKC. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.