Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. A slight
decrease in daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms should then
occur Thursday into this weekend. Expect near normal daytime
temperatures Tuesday followed by a pronounced warming trend later
this week.


.DISCUSSION...Isolated light showers were occurring early this
morning east of Tucson. Expect these to continue thru sunrise as
they move to the WNW. A weak MCV was over SW Graham county as of 2
am, but shouldn`t be a player today as it continue to move NNW.

What could be a player later today is the inverted trof currently
over Chihuahua MX. This feature is moving slowly to the NW toward
the area. Hi-res models focusing best activity W of Tucson, with
potential for blowing dust across Pinal county towards Phoenix, and
Cochise county. PW values across the remain above normal for July so
locally heavy rain a threat. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two.
Highs today will be around normal.

Scattered afternoon/evening storms Wednesday with highs slightly
warmer than today.

Starting Thursday and continuing through the upcoming weekend there
will be a gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity as
sub-tropical ridge expands over the southern CONUS. Still hanging on
to enough moisture to keep isolated to scattered storms in the
forecast. Highs temperatures will be above normal through this
period, maxing out on Friday.


Isolated showers through the early morning hours. Sct-bkn clouds at
6-9k ft agl and bkn-ovc clouds at 10-14k ft agl. Expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the late
morning and afternoon, persisting through the mid evening hours
tonight. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts and MVFR conditions may occur
with the stronger TSRA. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, sfc wind
will generally be less than 12 kts through Wednesday morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Ample moisture will ensure daily chances of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this week. A slight
decrease in rain chances will occur late in the week into the
weekend along with an increase in daytime temperatures. Outside of
gusty thunderstorm/outflow winds, expect typical diurnal 20-ft wind
patterns each day at mainly less than 15 mph.


.CLIMATE...As the area heats up again, could see a few spots across
the western deserts approach record highs later in the week.





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