Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 042108
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
207 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
SITTING AT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THE HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNDER THAT TREND. HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO
SLIGHTLY MITIGATE THE AFTERNOON HIGH FOR THOSE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A NOTABLY STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL SET UP A CLASSIC OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
THEN BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR
SOME LOCATIONS...AIDED BY AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BRINGING A
BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING. THOUGH THE WARMING TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT LAG BEHIND THE
INCREASING DAYTIME HIGHS.

WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AFTER THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/23Z.
BAND OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PASS THRU THE AREA THRU 05/03Z.
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS THRU END OF FCST PD UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT BUT THESE
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE. OTHERWISE CLR. SFC WINDS MOSTLY E-SE 5-
15 KTS WITH LCLY HIER GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 15 MPH...THOUGH
AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS MAY SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 20-
25 MPH AT TIMES. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND...NOT APPROACHING
NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL HELP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REBOUNDS IN THE MEANTIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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