Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

000
FXUS65 KTWC 250916
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH A FEW
LOCAL AT OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 25. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WAS OFF NRN BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE INTO SW AZ FROM THE GLFCA THIS
MORNING. MODELS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
800-650 MB LAYER WITH DRY CONDITIONS BELOW. SO A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
START TO THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST TROF TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING RELIEF TO THE CURRENT LATE OCTOBER HOT
SPELL. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DRY NW FLOW ON TUESDAY
AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES THROUGH.

TURNING WARMER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. ECMWF AGAIN WARMER THAN THE GFS. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NOT
BE WARM ENOUGH. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH SEVEN DAYS LEFT IN OCTOBER...TUCSON CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE 11TH WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...HEADED FOR ANOTHER TOP 10
WARMEST MONTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.