Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241545
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 AM MST SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND
SPREAD TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12 TUCSON SOUNDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY/WARM AIR IN PLACE. THE SHALLOW MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY WHICH PROMOTED THE CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAS DRIED A BIT...SO ANTICIPATING LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION SITTING
AROUND 700 MB. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ACROSS
SE ARIZONA. WE HIT 95 YESTERDAY IN TUCSON...SO EXPECT MAYBE 2 TO 3
DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL HEATING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS EXTREME SE AZ TODAY. MOIST AIR IS APPROACHING FROM
HURRICANE MARIE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 2 INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES
CREEPING UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND HEADING THIS DIRECTION.
SHOULD START TO SEE THE MOIST AIR HIT TOMORROW...WITH THE BRUNT ON
TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING A RAMP UP IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE ANOTHER DRYING TREND COMMENCES.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 24/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE VICINITY
OF KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS BETWEEN 24/21Z AND 25/03Z...WITH BKN CLOUDS
AT 8-12K FT AGL ASSOCIATED WITH ANY -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE.
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...20-FOOT WINDS WILL
BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ALONG WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
SNATCHES SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE. LATEST NHC
FORECAST KEEPS THE TRACK OF MARIE WELL OFF THE COAST OF BAJA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THAT SAID...NO DIRECT CONCERNS WITH HURRICANE MARIE
OTHER THAN SOME CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE TAIL END
OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT TREND WILL LEAD TO A
DAY-TO-DAY DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY THEN LOWER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

$$

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