Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241620
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TODAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THRU SE PINAL AND ERN
PIMA COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO SW GRAHAM AND NW
COCHISE COUNTIES. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED W-NW OF
TUCSON AND THEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. CAN RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...MAINLY N-NE OF
TUCSON. SNOW LEVELS IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE WITH 1-3" POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN NW-SE ORIENTED VALLEYS LIKE THE
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS IN THIS VALLEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
HARD FREEZE LIKE LOWS IN THE COLDER VALLEYS EAST OF TUCSON WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF TUCSON. WILL BE QUITE A SHOCK AS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND STORM THAT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN
-SHSN MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW -TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR NE OF KTUS TODAY. HOWEVER...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THIS OCCURRENCE. CLOUD BASES
WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 4-8K FT AGL TODAY. A FEW LINGERING -SHRA/
-SHSN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BRING SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY. LIQUID AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET...WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN 5 INCHES. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-25 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...
THEN DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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