Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 180417
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL BRING IN
THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEK...INCLUDING
MONDAY...DUE TO SEVERAL MORE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NICE WARM UP TODAY WITH HIGHS 6 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER
IN THE VALLEYS AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER SE AZ WHILE
OVER CALIFORNIA THERE LIES AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SW AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA WITH THE WHITES ON THE SOUTHERN END FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP THERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 2
TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD AS MOTHER NATURE CONTINUES
TO KEEP LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
GOTTA LUV IT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z. MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTER 16Z WITH 15-25 KT
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEADING TO BORDERLINE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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