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000
FXUS65 KTWC 130930
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE NWRD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THIS MOISTURE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR NEW MEXICO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF QPF EXPECTED RATHER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.

DURING THIS SAME PERIOD IN TIME THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD RESULTING IN LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY LESS HEAT TO THE AREA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

INFLUENCE FROM BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND WEAK IMPULSE
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DIMINISH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW SLIDES NEWRD ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ONCE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12Z/13.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THOUGH GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SO KSAD/KDUG MAY SEE TIMES WITH BREEZY WINDS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY...WITH GUST OF UP TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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