Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 141549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
849 AM MST FRI OCT 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to bring dry weather to
the region. Expect warm days and cool, comfortable nights to
prevail into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Temperatures this morning on average starting out
similar to yesterday, although some locales like the Bisbee
Douglas Airport, which dipped down to 40 degrees, were a bit
cooler, dare I say chilly. With high pressure strengthening today,
temperatures should top out a few degrees warmer than Thursday
under full sunshine. Current forecast on track with generally
quiet weather and large diurnal temperature trends into early next

Will see if extended model runs indicate any changes when
they come in later today. See previous discussion for thinking up
to this point.


.AVIATION...Valid through 15/18Z.
Expect clear skies below 20k ft through Saturday morning with
surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and low humidity levels will
prevail into early next week under high pressure aloft. Light
drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours with
generally westerly winds of 5 to 15 mph and occasional higher
gusts during the afternoons. A backdoor cold front could bring
a period of stronger winds to southeast Arizona out of the east
during the latter half of the new work week. Speeds of 15 to 20
mph and gusts to 25 mph seem likely but there is still uncertainty
to how far west across New Mexico and Arizona this front will


.PREV DISCUSSION...It will be about three degrees warmer this
afternoon as the atmosphere "recovers" from the short wave that
moved through the area Wednesday night. Beyond that very little
day to day change is expected in the weather across southern
Arizona through Wednesday with mostly clear and dry conditions
continuing. High temperatures will generally be 3-7 degrees warmer
than normal with low temps closer to normal thanks to the rather
dry air mass over the region allowing for good radiational

Late next week models are indicating an amplification in the longwave
pattern with a ridge on the west side of the country and a trough
further east. Depending on how the long wave pattern shakes out,
there is a potential for cooler easterly flow to affect the area
Thursday onward which would bring temps back down to normal levels if
the pattern sets up far enough west. Will have to wait and see.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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