Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN WITH DEWPOINTS CRASHING BETWEEN 0
AND 10 BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING E AND NE OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 WITH
LOWS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED
FROM THE WIND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AT TIA FROM THE
PLETHORA OF MODEL DATA WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE
RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 39 DEGREES. THINK THE 34 RIGHT LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY COOL MONDAY TO START THE SHORTENED HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER
25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS EAST OF KTUS...10-15
KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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