Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 242224
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
324 PM MST WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Increasing moisture will help create better
thunderstorm coverage by Friday and Saturday.
.DISCUSSION...The weak trough has shifted east of our area with a
moderate northerly to northwesterly flow in place. Normally that
would be dry, however we continue to have a pool of moisture fed
at lower levels across areas west and northwest of us. A modest
uptick in thunderstorm coverage today with a bit better moisture
in place. Precipitable water values are creeping above 1 inch
across most of the area with higher values west and northwest. The
biggest concern the remainder of the afternoon and early evening
is strong outflows from the north, however the available moisture
will tend to limit widespread propagation of storms along the
outflows. We`ll need to keep an eye out for blowing dust as well.
With the weak troughiness east of our area Thursday, the flow will
weaken and begin to gain a more southerly component. Below average
thunderstorm coverage once again, but increasing especially along
Friday, Saturday and Sunday are looking busier as we once again
try to make Southeast Arizona the home of the state`s deepest
moisture. A more typical late August scenario with increasing
thunderstorm coverage for most of the area. We`ll also likely see
some overnight activity.
For next week, we`ll see some ridging and a weaker flow, however
we should have enough moisture around for a chance of
thunderstorms, with an emphasis on eastern areas.
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
VFR conditions through the forecast period. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA
through 25/04z followed by a clearing trend overnight. Surface
wind generally less than 12 kts outside of thunderstorm outflows
during the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and
early evening today and Thursday. Increasing storm coverage is
then expected Friday through Sunday as monsoonal moisture
increases from the south. 20-foot winds into the upcoming weekend
will be terrain driven and less than 15 mph in most locations.
Expect the potential for strong and gusty winds near thunderstorms
and stronger afternoon and early evening winds today in the upper
Gila River valley, with northwest winds of 20-25 mph.
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