Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 110435
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
935 PM MST Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect less thunderstorm coverage Friday with isolated
to thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson. More widespread coverage of
thunderstorms will then occur this weekend. A gradual daily decrease
in thunderstorms from west to east is on tap Monday into next
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers continuing mostly west-
to-north of Tucson at this time. Other isolated showers producing
mostly sprinkles were also occurring at this time across portions of
Cochise County east-to-southeast of Tucson. The bulk of detected
lightning strikes during the past 30 minutes were northwest of this
forecast area in south central Arizona. Radar trends during the past
hour have indicated a gradual decrease in intensity, and IR satellite
imagery depicted warming clouds across the area.

Several HRRR solutions as well as the 11/00Z NAM12 and 11/00Z Univ
of AZ WRF-NAM suggest that the ongoing showers will move northward
during the next several hours. These solutions were quite similar
with depicting the bulk of showers to be north of this forecast area
shortly after daybreak Friday. The official forecast for the rest of
tonight was updated for the above scenario to occur.

Thus, scattered showers mainly west-to-north of Tucson the rest of
tonight. A few thunderstorms may also occur but the coverage and
occurrence of thunder should be quite limited. Expect less coverage
of showers/ tstms Friday, with the bulk of showers/tstms to be east
of Tucson.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 12/06Z.
Scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA mainly west to north of KTUS
ending around daybreak Friday. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA
will then occur mostly east of KTUS Friday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms Friday mainly east of
Tucson. Scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms across much of
southeast Arizona this weekend, then a gradual daily decrease in
thunderstorms from west-to-east Monday into next Thursday. Humidity
levels will remain elevated into early next week with typical mid
summer winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /133 PM MST/...For Friday we will likely end up
with a more down day as the MCV will be north of the area leaving
our area in an unfavorable location for development. That said the
low level moisture combined with sunshine should be able to kick off
at least some activity Friday afternoon and then mainly over higher
terrain.

This weekend we are expecting the activity to pick up again with a
moisture surge and a weak trough for a focusing mechanism. At this
range details are lacking so stay tuned. At least with all the
expected activity and moisture high temperatures should be tempered
some.

Looking further out ahead it appears that SW flow will develop over
the region allowing for drying to gradually take hold through the
week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Cerniglia

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