Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240941
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
241 AM MST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOST STORMS WILL THEN RETREAT CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
EASTERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL SORTING THROUGH THE DEBRIS CLOUD SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MIXED IN HERE AND THERE WITH CONVECTION FINALLY WINDING DOWN
IN SONORA AS WELL. CIRA SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SHOWING OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.3 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH A DEEPER PLUME IMMEDIATELY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN SONORA. IT`S FEELING SOUPY OUTSIDE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAKING FOR RH VALUES IN
THE 80 TO 95 PERCENT RANGE. WITH A DECENT RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA WE
SHOULD MANAGE ANOTHER DAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
FLOW.

THE FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SPREADS FURTHER WEST
WITH THE WESTERN FLANK WARMING MID LEVELS A DEGREE OR TWO
SATURDAY...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM BORDER
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS HELPS A NICE WEAKNESS IN THE
FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHERN SONORA.

THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN OUR WEATHER AS HIGHER LATITUDE
ENERGY SHIFTS THE HIGH BACK EASTWARD AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPULSE SHOULD THEN ROTATE FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BOPPING BACK WESTWARD AS A TROUGH SETS UP IN EASTERN
STATES. IT DEPENDS ON WHAT`S GOING ON IN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...BUT
THIS IS CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL WITH ISOLATED -SHRA PSBL THRU
24/15Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES AFT 24/19Z ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU 25/03Z...WITH INTERNATIONAL BORDER LOCATIONS
INCLUDING KOLS/KDUG/KALK SEEING THE MOST ACTIVITY. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCE...SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW
NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. OVERNIGHT
ISO TO SCT -SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND THIS WEEKEND WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION A BIT...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. AREAS IN AND AROUND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE
VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRENCH



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