Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

FXUS65 KTWC 181004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
304 AM MST Sat Mar 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The unseasonable warmth of late will continue into
the early part of the new week with little change. A storm system
is expected to move across the region the middle part of next week
which will result in cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a
chance of showers.


.DISCUSSION...The ridge! The ridge! (in Herve Villechaize`s voice)
Temps will continue to run 15 to 20 degrees above average into
early next week, maxing out today and Sunday. A few daily and
monthly records are threatened, with some details below in the
Climate section.

We`ve been watching a bit of mid level moisture working all the
way up from central Mexico into Chihuahua all week, with progress
slowed by the orientation of the ridge over the past 24 hours.
HRRR has the ridge idea for this afternoon, pushing unorganized
convection into northern Chihuahua and far eastern Sonora. We have
isolated thunderstorm coverage for the Chiricahua mountains of
far southeast Cochise county tomorrow afternoon before that is
pushed off to the east in an increasing southwesterly flow ahead
of the storm system approaching from the west.

The afore mentioned Pacific storm system, which we have also been
watching all week, will bring increasing surface winds by Tuesday
afternoon, with windy conditions for the area Wednesday ahead of a
surface frontal boundary. As is often the case with transition
season systems, we will probably be a little on the moisture
starved side this far south. A few showers around the area
late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night / Thursday morning,
but most of the action will be to our north. Temperatures will
drop back to near or a little below seasonal normals behind the
front (which should be east of our area by Thursday morning).

Another mainly windy system pushes through the area next weekend,
so temperatures shouldn`t have enough time to bounce back to
extreme levels.


.AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z.
Mostly clear skies with patches of cirrus clouds at times and a
few cumulus clouds around 10-12k ft over the southern mountains
this afternoon. Winds will continue to be light with a few
afternoon gusts to 20 kts and somewhat variable in direction.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very warm and dry conditions will continue into
early next week with continued low RH levels in the afternoon and
marginal overnight recoveries. Winds Saturday and Sunday
afternoons will be more westerly but remaining below 15 mph with
a few higher gusts. One or two dry lightning strikes are not out
of the question in the Chiricahua Mtns of far southeast Cochise
county Sunday afternoon with a modest mid level moisture increase
from Mexico.

A Pacific storm system is expected to move across the area the
middle part of next week with gusty SW winds Monday through
Thursday. Any more widespread moisture is not expected to ramp up
until at least late Wednesday so dry and breezy conditions
expected for a few afternoons. Borderline critical conditions
possible Tuesday and Wednesday mainly zone 152 then there is a
fair chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a
decent chance for another storm system late the following weekend.


CLIMATE...The average monthly temperature for Tucson (TIA)
through March 17th ranks as the warmest to date (and at this
point it looks like a sure thing to end the month still in the
lead). We`ve had a total of 6 - 90 degree days so far, with 5 in
a row through Friday. This ties for the longest stretch of 90s in
March. That record should be broken today and then added to
through Monday or Tuesday. We should also exceed the all- time
March record for the number of 90+ days (currently 8 set in 1910).






Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.