Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 151606

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
906 AM MST SAT OCT 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A rather static weather pattern across the Southwest
will maintain the mostly clear and mild weather conditions into the
middle of next week.


Mid morning water vapor imagery continues to reveal weak shortwave
ridging across the southwestern CONUS this morning, as the Pac NW
remains under the gun for a prolonged high impact precip/wind event.
Temperatures across this morning generally bottomed out in the upper
50s/lower 60s across the southeast AZ deserts and have recovered
into the mid 70s as of 16Z.

Not really a whole lot upon which to elaborate this morning as
mostly sunny skies, light winds, and slightly above normal
temperatures are expected today, tomorrow, and much of next week.
Only updates in the short term will be based on a blend of
observational trends and incoming 12Z statistical guidance.
Otherwise, the forecast is in great shape.


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
Expect clear skies below 20k ft through Sunday with surface winds
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and low humidity levels will
prevail into early next week under high pressure aloft. Light
drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours with
generally westerly 20 foot winds of 5 to 15 mph and occasional
higher gusts during the afternoons. A backdoor cold front could
bring a period of stronger winds to southeast Arizona out of the
east during the latter half of next week, but model differences
concerning the westward progress of the front make this a relatively
low confidence scenario.


Not much going on weather wise in our neck of the
woods while wild weather occurs elsewhere (Pac NW comes to mind).
Basically have a ridge of high pressure to our south with the rather
strong westerlies well to the north resulting in dry and light
westerly flow across our region. What that means is continued sunny
days with warmer than normal temperatures and cool overnight
temperatures due to the clear skies and dry air mass. The afternoon
high temperatures will very slowly trend downward today onward
finally getting closer to mid October normals by Thursday.

There is decent potential for a back door cold front to move west
across much of the area late next week resulting in somewhat cooler
temps east of Tucson and a decent easterly breeze. Differences
remain in the model world with the significance of the front but
over the last few days it looks as though the ECMWF is trending
toward the more pronounced GFS solutions. Current forecast package
trends toward that thought.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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