Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191640
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK MAY CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE. MUCH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWER LEVELS STILL LACKING. OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS A LACKLUSTER 1.1 TO 1.25 ACROSS THE AREA. NOT A TERRIBLY
EXCITING 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WITH VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY (AND THE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY TOO MUCH TO ASK FOR).
WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF TUCSON
ADVERTISED BY LATEST HIRES RAPID REFRESH AND OFFICE WRF OUTPUT. UOFA
WRF TRENDS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS. WE TWEAKED COVERAGE BACK AND
LIMITED POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO A TIGHTER TIME PERIOD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE WE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS OUR MAIN STORY TURNS TO HEAT NEXT WEEK. LATEST FORECAST
TRENDS FOR TUE/WED/THU PROBABLY A TAD LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OR ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF
PIMA AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN IMPULSE TRACKING NORTHWARD OUT OF SONORA MEXICO. STILL
EXPECTING SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE COVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE UP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT NOT AS ACTIVE
AS EARLIER IN THE FIRST HALF OF JULY.

MODELS WERE STILL SUGGESTING HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SOUTH OF KTUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS AT 8-12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND OUTSIDE OF ANY
TSRA OUTFLOW INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY BE 12 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND SAFFORD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MOLLERE





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