Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 131557

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
856 AM MST Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of Cochise county this afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures
will occur into the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture lingered across extreme southeast
Arizona to support a few showers or thunderstorms there this
afternoon and evening. Much like what was observed yesterday
afternoon and early evening. That said, looking at a similar repeat
in weather today as yesterday with highs remaining above normal.
Current forecast looked on track, so no updates anticipated this


.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/18Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA with bases 7-10k ft and gusts to 35 kts could
occur southeast of a line from KFHU-KLSB this afternoon and evening.
This includes KDUG but confidence of occurrence of TS still to low
to place in TAF. Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies and surface
winds mainly less than 12 kts although southwest winds could gust to
20 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms could occur this
afternoon and early evening across the southern portion of Fire Zone
152. Dry conditions will then prevail Saturday into the middle of
next week. Expect normal diurnal wind trends today and Saturday
followed by easterly winds Sunday and Monday. A return to westerly
afternoon winds is forecast by Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Upper trof passing by to our north on Saturday
will push the above mentioned moisture east of the area. The trof
will also kick up some southwest breezes along with high
temperatures being a few degrees cooler than today.

Upper ridge builds over the area once again starting Sunday and
continuing into the first half of next. Thus expect continued well
above normal high temperatures.

Both EC/GFS showing a southern stream system possibly impact the
area late next week, but there are timing differences. The GFS moves
this system over the area next Friday while the EC is a day slower.
At this time would lean toward the slower solution, which some of
the GFS ensembles are depicting.





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