Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 091620
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST WED APR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SCATTERED THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME.
VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 5-10
DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE
NEARLY 1-3 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME TUE. 09/12Z KTWC SOUNDING
DEPICTED A VERY DRY PROFILE...WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.20
INCH. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT YIELDED WARMING OF ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. 09/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 500-300 MB
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. LIGHT GENERALLY WLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SWRN CONUS THRU FRI. SATELLITE TRENDS...09/12Z NAM/GFS AND 09/00Z
ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE THAT CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THUS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL THUR-FRI.

WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST FRI NIGHT WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE
ADJACENT THE WEST COAST SUN IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EWD OVER
THE SWRN CONUS MON-TUE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F OR SO
WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED TUE. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
DAYTIME TEMPS THUR...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGS F
ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS SUN TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP MON-TUE DUE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER SE AZ THRU THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A FEW-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT
AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND
THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO POOR
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE 20S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS MUCH OF THIS WEEK...
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS





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