Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 151615
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A DRY AND MILD DAY TODAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH SOME BELOW FREEZING READINGS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BATCH OF
MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PIMA/SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.
THERE WERE ALSO SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVING
WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. HIGHS AREA WIDE TODAY
WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF...CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WILL DROP SSE AND
THRU THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/MTN
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NE OF TUCSON...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL AWAIT FULL SUITE OF 12Z DATA IF ANY CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
THE AREA OF MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PIMA/SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ON EAST TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS
AT 6-8K FT AGL...MAINLY FROM KTUS E. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
TUCSON WESTWARD...BUT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REST OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS OF
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AND GUSTY AT TIMES. AFTER SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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