Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230907
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
207 AM MST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AFTERNOON
BREEZES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND PASSING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WINDS WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF OUR AREA GETTING SQUEEZED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND FROM THE
STORM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE STORM TO THE NORTH
PASSES BY WE WILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND A DECENT WESTERLY BREEZE KICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BREEZE WILL BRING ABOUT SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS DETAILED
BELOW. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
MOVES EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DEEPER THAN THE
SYSTEM PASSING BY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOLING EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT THIS ONE
WILL ALSO PASS BY DRY. WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME PRETTY COOL (SEASONALLY) LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING LOW TEMPS IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF
COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.

THEN ANOTHER IN THE PARADE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO BE DEEP AND
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER ONES. SO ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
WINDS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THE COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
SCT TO OCNL BKN THIN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU THE FCST PD. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BCMG
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS FROM 25-35 KTS FROM
23/17Z THRU 24/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASED BREEZES
BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE FOR EASTERN AREAS
OF COCHISE COUNTY WHERE BRIEF LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER DRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
MET MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON. THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE ASSESS THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY...BUT PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WE COULD
SEE WINDS AND RH VALUES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 152 (SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY).

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CERNIGLIA
AVIATION....MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...MOLLERE

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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