Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212036
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
136 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA EAST AND NORTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A SECOND
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY THURSDAY
DRIVING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY WAS GENERATING
A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. LATEST MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING A
SECONDARY SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BEFORE TRACKING FARTHER EAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER....MODELS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW FORMING SOUTHWEST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF EJECT THIS LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL PWATER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW
WERE RATHER HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS...HAVE NUDGED POP
VALUES UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD
CEILINGS AROUND 10-15K FT AGL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE
WIND WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS BEFORE
SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WIND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WILL SET UP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS NEAR
FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAPS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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