Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 140429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WERE MOSTLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. EAST WINDS STILL OCCURRING BUT NOT
EXPECTED STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT LIKE THERE WAS THIS MORNING. A
LITTLE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND S-SW OF TUCSON. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE CHANCE OF STORMS.

THE FOLLOWING IS FROM THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF
ODILE WHICH LOOKED FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME TO AID IN SURGING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH THE TAIL END OF A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THIS POSSIBLE
INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE RIGHT COMBINATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY. THE TROPICAL NATURE
OF THE AIRMASS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT IT WILL BE FAIR TO SAY THAT A
RETURN TO A WETTER PERIOD FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CAN BE ANTICIPATED
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/06Z.
CLEAR TO SCTD CLOUDS AT 10-12KFT AGL. SFC WINDS E-SE 8-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA
SUNDAY AFT 18Z MAINLY S AND SW OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA COUNTIES
AND OVER THE WHITES. WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
REGION THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK IN PART DUE TO HURRICANE
ODILE...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AND A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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