Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 210432
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
932 PM MST Thu Apr 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry weather will persist into at least
early next week. Occasional high clouds, and gusty afternoon winds
at times will occur as systems brush by to our north. Stronger winds
will be possible next week.
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies remained over the area late this evening.
Expect temperatures to warm even more the next few days as high
pressure aloft builds over the region. High temperatures will peak
around Sunday before lowering a few degrees as the upper high
weakens. Current forecast appeared to handle these trends well.
Thus, no updates necessary this evening. Please refer to the
additional sections for more details.
.AVIATION...Valid through 22/06Z.
SKC through the period. Sfc wind WLY/NWLY at 10-14 kts with some
gusts to around 25 kts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Otherwise, sfc wind will be terrain driven at less than 10 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above average daytime
temperatures will continue into next week. Minimum daytime
humidities will be in the single digits and teens. For the most
part, 20-foot winds will follow normal diurnal trends at less than
15 mph with occasional afternoon and early evening gustiness. The
strongest wind speeds are expected this afternoon and again Friday
afternoon. A storm system late next week may bring breezy to windy
conditions creating critical fire weather conditions near the NM
.PREV DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the region this afternoon,
which will continue to be the trend over the next few days. Surface
temperatures are in the 80s to near 90 degrees across most valley
locations. Dry air remains in place with dewpoints in the teens and
20s, yielding relative humidity values in the single digits.
Westerly to at times northwesterly flow will keep things dry into at
least the middle of next week. A few disturbances passing north of
the region will tighten the pressure gradient enough for some
occasional afternoon breezes, particularly Friday and again early
next week. Well above normal temperatures will persist over the next
several days, with an amplified ridge this weekend helping the lower
deserts push triple digits for the first time in 2017. We will
likely see the first 95 degree day for Tucson International Airport
on Saturday, with an outside chance of 100 on Sunday, although right
now it looks like we`ll fall a little short.
Middle to late next week we`ll watch for a system to dive a little
further south out of the Pac NW. The main impact will be breezy to
windy conditions, potentially creating some fire weather concerns
near the NM border. Look for a slight cooling trend to occur between
Sunday and Thursday, however temperatures should remain above
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