Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 152118
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN ABUNDANT LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON. A NUMBER OF TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS IN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO SLOW ERRATIC MOVEMENT.
STORMS FROM KTUS WEST HAVE NOT HAD MUCH SUCCESS SUSTAINING
DEVELOPMENT AS YET WHICH WOULD VERIFY THE MARKEDLY DRIER AIR SEEN ON
12Z SOUNDING ABOVE 500MB IS STILL HOLDING FAST.  DO EXPECT STORMS
AROUND TUCSON LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.  THE MID LEVEL NE FLOW
WILL BE STRENGTHENING TONIGHT BUT PERHAPS NOT SOON ENOUGH TO USHER
GRAHAM COUNTY STORMS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TUCSON METRO. CONSIDERING
CURRENT STORMS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN THIS EVENING EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

N TO NE MID UPPER FLOW WILL TEND TO LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
THIS WEEKEND...BUT EVER SO SLIGHTLY...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE SEEPS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THUNDERSTORM FORECAST GENERALLY
REFLECTS A SLIGHT DOWNTURN THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE SE WILL MAINTAIN A DECENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NW TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/00Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA INTO THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
CURRENTLY NOTE VCTS AT TERMINAL TO ACCOUNT FOR THREAT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL THEN PREVAIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
-TSRA/-SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DROZD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BROST

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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