Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261004
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SW UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A E-NE
FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR STORMS TODAY
WILL BE E AND S OF TUCSON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME FOR E-SE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE E-SE WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER
ERN NV/UTAH. SO AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE CALENDAR TURNS FROM
JUNE TO JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLD-SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL
MAINLY E AND S OF KTUS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL BE A BIT LESS ACTIVE BUT THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE. INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY
LIGHTNING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED THIS WEEKEND. WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE FORECAST HIGH OF 103 DEGREES AT TUCSON AIRPORT...IF
CORRECT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE 10TH LONGEST STREAK WITH HIGHS
OF 105 DEGREES OR HOTTER.

ON A MORE HISTORICAL NOTE...TODAY MARKS THE 25TH ANNIVERSARY OF
THE 1990 HEAT WAVE WHICH PEAK TODAY WITH ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS BEING
SET AT MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING TUCSON AIRPORT WHICH RECORDED A HIGH
OF 117 DEGREES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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