Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 181006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
406 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

The cold front that moved through the state yesterday bringing
gusty winds and showers is now over the Dakotas. A large low
pressure system is slowly moving into the Pacific Northwest,
embedded within southwesterly flow around this low are a couple
of shortwave impulses that will move into the northern and central
Rockies over the next 12-24 hours. Late this afternoon into the
evening hours, precipitation chances begin to increase over the
Absarokas and western Montana as a shortwave rides over the
northern Rockies. Minor pressure falls will promote some scattered
rain showers mainly from the Absarokas through Bozeman and
northward into central Montana. By late tonight, a stronger
secondary shortwave passing over the central Rockies will begin to
generate pressure falls over southern Wyoming. Widespread showers
expected from the Bighorns to Hardin and east into the Dakotas.
Elevations above 7kft in the Bighorns could pick up several inches
of wet snow through Wednesday afternoon.

There remains significant disagreement in the model qpf forecast
tonight through Wednesday. The GFS and CMC are quite wet from the
Bighorns to the WY/MT border with anywhere from 0.5 to 1.0 inch
of rainfall forecast. For now, leaning more toward the drier ECMWF
solution which keeps this impactful rainfall further to the
southeast over the Dakotas. Precip clears out from west to east
on Wed. afternoon and evening, with temperatures falling into the
mid to upper 30s on Thursday morning. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Thursday will be a dry and warm day as shortwave ridging will
dominate the area. This will quickly break down Friday as a
trough moves into the Rockies. The bulk of the energy will be
north or south of the area, so southern Montana does not have as
favorable a setup for rainfall. However, with some energy and
moisture across the area have included some PoPs.

Saturday will see more ridging which will bring more dry weather
to the area. The evolution of the system on Sunday has again
become less clear. The GFS wants to bring in another trough, much
like it has been showing the past several days. The ECMWF now has
mainly just zonal flow. Have kept PoPs pretty much as is given
the uncertainty. Early next week continues to look uncertain.


VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Some showers
are possible this afternoon after 20Z around KLVM, which could
produce some mountain obscurations. Reimer



    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 064 043/061 040/066 042/059 040/063 042/066 043/063
    2/W 45/W    11/B    23/W    31/B    12/W    32/W
LVM 061 036/060 033/061 037/056 032/062 038/065 038/062
    3/W 33/W    12/T    44/W    31/B    13/W    32/W
HDN 066 042/061 037/067 041/061 040/064 040/069 042/063
    1/B 46/W    11/B    22/W    21/B    12/W    32/W
MLS 065 044/060 038/067 043/065 042/064 042/069 044/063
    1/B 35/W    21/U    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 064 043/057 036/066 041/061 039/062 041/068 044/062
    1/B 68/W    21/U    12/W    21/B    11/B    32/W
BHK 062 039/056 034/064 037/062 038/061 038/066 040/060
    0/B 36/W    30/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    32/W
SHR 062 041/056 034/062 039/054 037/060 037/065 040/061
    2/W 67/W    22/T    44/W    31/B    11/B    31/B




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