Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 272020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE THERMAL
AXIS AND BETTER MONSOONAL PUSH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST TO START THE WEEK AS THE
GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO COMBAT
THE INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALSO...MONSOON MOISTURE...WHICH
REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL START TO GET
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS ONLY
RESULTING IN SOME HIGH...THIN CLOUD COVER.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN A BIT
STRONGER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EFFECT IS THAT THIS WILL
LIMIT PROGRESS OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS SO THAT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE ONLY HIGH ELEVATION
THUNDER AND FIRST CHANCE OF LOWER ELEVATION THUNDER IS FRIDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.

NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD AS
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A BIT OF
A PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK BUT
STILL SHOWING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCUATING
ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM UP MAY BE GENERATED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
BUT EVEN WARMEST SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY PUSHING THE LOWER 90S. ONLY
ADJUSTED A FEW POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091 062/092
    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089 055/088
    01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092 061/093
    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093 064/092
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091 062/091
    00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088 059/088
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087 057/088
    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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