Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 232106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
306 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

With an upper-level shortwave departing northeast of the Dakotas,
ridging slides in from the west. Keeping the forecast dry on Sat
night and Sun aside from an isolated shower/thunderstorm over the
western mountains and foothills. Zonal flow aloft settles in on
Monday bringing mid to upper 90s temps Monday afternoon across
much of the area with light westerly flow at the surface. A weak
disturbance moves eastward from Idaho, developing an 850 mb
trough over eastern Montana. Looks to be enough instability and
forcing for at least isolated thunderstorms across much of the
area in the late afternoon/evening and perhaps some scattered
thunderstorms over extreme southeastern Montana. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


No significant changes were made to the long term period for
this forecast package. Zonal flow with a pair of Pacific
shortwaves can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in at
least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day. The best chance
of storms is in the east due to better low level moisture from the
great plains. Decent vertical shear/CAPE over the eastern border
zones may produce a few late day severe storms in that vicinity.

Latest models are in agreement that the strong ridge currently
across the central CONUS will shift back to the west after midweek
allowing a series of shortwaves to track across our region in NW
flow around Wednesday night and Thursday. The higher PoPs and
slight cooling inherited for this time frame thus seem reasonable.
Models continue to hint at ridging/drying by the end of next week.
BT


&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty northwest winds will continue into the early evening across the
forecast area, decreasing after about 02Z. Expect gusts of 25-35
kts, greatest over the eastern lower elevations. VFR conditions
will otherwise prevail through the weekend, though a few showers
or thunderstorms are possible over the mountains this evening. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/089 060/094 063/095 063/091 061/087 060/088 061/092
    10/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    21/U
LVM 047/088 051/094 052/095 054/090 054/087 051/089 052/093
    20/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/W    11/U
HDN 055/091 058/097 060/096 061/093 058/088 056/088 058/094
    10/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    21/U
MLS 059/091 062/098 065/096 068/093 063/087 061/088 061/092
    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 058/092 062/097 062/097 063/094 061/089 059/089 059/092
    11/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    21/U
BHK 055/088 058/096 061/093 062/088 059/084 057/084 056/087
    00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    21/U
SHR 052/090 054/094 055/096 057/093 057/088 054/089 053/093
    10/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    24/T    42/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES 129-131>133.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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