Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 231020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...BRINGING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRACK ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOST THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE AT
SOME RAIN. AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG ALONG THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING
OVER YELLOWSTONE...A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL ONLY SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE 35 TO
45 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER
50 MPH LIKELY. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MIXING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCAL GUIDANCE HAVE GONE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL
DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A PRETTY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS UTAH/COLORADO MAY PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND ENERGY INTO THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT MAIN PUNCH WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO FURTHER LIMIT SHOWER
CHANCES. MODELS TRY TO DROP A 1040MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH INTO
THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY THERE IS WEAK SUPPORT
ALOFT FOR THIS SYSTEM SO WILL STEP INTO THE COOLING TREND SLOWLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
WITH 40S AND 50S COMMON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER FOOTHILLS AREAS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50KTS BY
MIDNIGHT INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043 033/049 037/052 037/054 035/053 035/048 030/043
    1/N 02/W    21/N    00/N    00/U    02/W    11/B
LVM 046 033/050 037/053 037/055 036/056 034/050 029/048
    2/W 12/W    21/N    00/N    00/N    12/W    11/B
HDN 042 026/048 030/049 030/052 029/052 029/048 024/042
    1/B 03/W    21/E    00/B    00/U    02/W    11/B
MLS 040 029/046 031/047 032/048 029/049 032/044 026/037
    0/B 02/W    21/E    10/B    00/U    01/B    11/B
4BQ 042 027/047 031/049 032/051 029/052 029/047 024/042
    1/B 03/W    21/E    10/U    00/U    02/W    11/B
BHK 040 027/044 028/044 032/047 027/049 030/042 023/035
    0/B 02/W    22/W    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/E
SHR 042 022/049 031/051 031/053 029/052 026/046 023/041
    2/J 02/W    21/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 41-65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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