Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270145

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
745 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

No significant adjustments made on the evening update. Showers
currently lingering on radar probably not reaching lower
elevations, but mountain locations may be seeing some light
precip. Still looking at increasing trend of precip in mountains
later tonight. BT


.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Shortwave ridge bringing mostly sunny and dry conditions this
afternoon. Areas that saw moisture yesterday are popping some
weak isolated showers, but these should not result in more than a
few drops reaching the ground in most areas. Added in a schc
mention into the forecast for these areas through 6 pm. Will see a
transition to southwest flow aloft tonight as a weak piece of
energy and southwest jet nose into the area. There is enough
moisture and upper support for snow in the mountains tonight with
this feature, but doesn`t look like enough to make it to the
ground over the plains and kept dry forecast with increasing cloud
cover for the lower elevations. Cloud cover will help hold
temperatures out of the 30s in many areas tonight.

For tomorrow, overnight disturbance exits and there is a break
before stronger system develops late in the day over western
zones. Broad area of divergence will spread into southwest zones
late in the day with best precipitation chances there. Easterly
winds will develop and enhance precipitation Monday evening in the
western upslope areas, and given the strength of the divergence
aloft should see more widespread precipitation than we did on
Saturday over western and central zones, spreading into SE MT

Inverted surface trof strengthens Tuesday as more energy pivots
northward from the base of the trof. This will increase
precipitation strength and coverage along and east of a Miles City
to Sheridan line once again Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with
another quarter to half an inch of rain possible in these areas.
May need another Winter Weather Advisory for the Bighorn mountains
Monday Night through Tuesday, based on current QPF and Snow
Ratios looking at 6 to 10 inches above 7000 feet. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Active pattern continues at times through the extended period. A
series of upper lows and troughs will continue to move onto the
Pacific Northwest coast about every other day. The forecast area
will be between systems Wednesday as an upper low moves east of
the four corners area while the next one approaches the Pacific
northwest. Models then take this next system southeast again into
the Great Basin area Thursday then over the four corners region
for Friday. This will be far enough north to bring some upper
level divergence across northern Wyoming and southern Montana
Thursday and Friday. As a result, models continue with widespread
precip Thursday and Friday. However, models differ significantly
in timing and they have also backed off with the qpf. In any case,
as it looks now, precip amounts look to be around 0.50" for some
portions of our forecast area. Temperatures look warm enough to be
rain across the plains but snow will be likely for the mountains
with snow possible for foothills locations. Ridging looks to build
across the forecast area Saturday with the next system arriving
Sunday. However, timing this far out is sketchy given the fast
movement of these systems. Temperatures Wednesday will be above
normal with a cooling trend Thursday and Friday to near or
slightly below normal values before rebounding next weekend.



VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area tonight
through Monday. Scattered snow showers will create areas of
mountain obscuration over the Crazys, Beartooths and Absarokas
through Monday. Expect localized obscurations over the NE Bighorns
Mon. afternoon. Chances for showers will increase W of KBIL Mon.
afternoon. Surface winds at KLVM will decrease later this evening.



    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
BIL 041/062 041/055 035/063 042/059 040/051 035/059 038/059
    12/B    55/R    11/U    24/R    66/R    21/B    12/W
LVM 037/053 032/052 030/059 038/053 033/050 031/058 034/058
    27/W    73/O    11/B    26/R    75/O    21/B    12/W
HDN 039/064 039/054 032/064 037/062 038/052 034/060 035/060
    12/B    55/R    20/U    13/R    66/R    21/B    12/W
MLS 042/066 041/056 037/064 041/064 041/054 036/060 037/061
    12/W    45/R    41/B    12/R    34/R    21/B    11/B
4BQ 038/063 041/051 035/062 039/065 039/053 034/056 036/059
    11/B    67/R    60/B    01/B    35/R    31/B    01/B
BHK 038/062 037/056 035/062 037/063 037/053 032/056 034/058
    11/B    25/R    51/B    01/B    22/R    21/B    00/B
SHR 035/058 036/048 030/059 035/062 037/050 031/055 033/057
    03/B    77/R    40/U    03/R    66/R    31/B    12/W




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