Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 172159
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
259 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Made very little change to tonight through Wed. night
periods as high pressure ridging transitions to SW flow. Models
showed the pressure gradient becoming more N-S as the night
progresses which will allow the gap winds to increase by late
tonight. Local guidance showed a high probability of Advisory
criteria being met tonight through Wed. evening with the best
chances Wed. morning. East Livingston DOT did hit criteria earlier
today. Will continue Wind Advisory for the gap flow areas. The
gradient may support continued strong gap winds into Thu., but
will address this later if needed. Inherited wind forecast was in
good shape. Otherwise, moisture will increase over the W late Wed.
through Wed. night. This moisture will bring a slight chance of
rain and snow showers to the western mountains. Biggest challenge
for the forecast will be the high temperatures. Temperatures this
afternoon ranged from the 30s to the 50s, with the warmest
locations over higher elevations and areas N and W of KBIL. KMLS
was still 28 degrees at 21Z. The airmass will not change much from
today for Wed., except for the increasing clouds over the W. Used
temperatures from today as guidance for Wed. and lowered them a
bit under the cloudy areas. Arthur

Thursday, energy will slide into California and develop a trough
over the Great Basin. This will back the flow with lowering
heights. Energy driving to the south, along with lowering heights
will pull in some cooler air Thursday night. Models produce an
area of ascent and therefore, chance for showers, for western and
central zones Thursday night. Will likely be a bit of mixed precip
Thursday evening before changing to all snow overnight. QPF
values look fairly light, so expecting generally an inch or less
of snowfall here. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Models were in fairly good agreement for the extended period. The
forecast looks cooler and somewhat unsettled. That being said, do
not see a significant storm system in the pattern as energy was
progged to dig too far south to impact Montana much.

Energy cuts off a low over the central plains Friday and Friday
night. The models were a little farther west with this solution
compared to previous runs. An area of ascent is progged over the
east with some lingering lift even into central and western zones.
Will maintain PoPs through the weekend as this system lift north
into the eastern Dakotas. A small scale ridge builds in briefly
Sunday, for a potential dry day. Another deep and disorganized
trough moves back into the Great Basin on Monday. This will allow
colder air to spill into Montana. The bulk of the energy looks too
far south to provide a significant chance of snowfall, but weak
energy in cyclonic flow should provide a few snow showers Monday
into Tuesday. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight through
Wednesday. SW to W surface winds will be gusty along the western
foothills, with gusts of 35-45 kts at KLVM/K6S0/K3HT, increasing
to 50 kts at KLVM late tonight. Local drifting snow is possible in
these areas. Gusts to 30 kts will extend as far east as KBIL. The
gusty winds from KBIL W will continue through Wed. Expect
localized mountain obscurations over the western mountains Wed.
afternoon. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/043 028/044 029/038 021/033 021/034 018/031 017/027
    00/U    00/B    33/W    22/J    21/B    11/B    22/J
LVM 027/044 028/046 026/040 018/037 019/036 019/035 017/029
    00/N    02/W    53/W    22/J    21/B    23/J    22/J
HDN 015/041 020/041 020/036 016/031 013/031 010/029 009/025
    00/U    00/B    23/W    22/J    21/B    11/B    22/J
MLS 018/039 020/040 018/035 019/032 018/032 011/029 011/023
    00/U    00/U    12/J    22/J    22/J    01/B    12/J
4BQ 016/040 016/042 016/036 017/034 016/033 009/029 009/025
    00/U    00/U    12/J    22/J    22/J    01/B    12/J
BHK 022/037 020/041 017/034 018/032 018/031 012/029 011/023
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/J    22/J    11/B    11/B
SHR 018/043 021/044 018/037 015/034 014/034 012/031 010/026
    00/U    00/B    12/J    22/J    21/B    01/B    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM MST Thursday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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