Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 011020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY...MON AND TUE...

FOR SUNDAY...WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY AROUND
BAKER. DID TRIM POPS BACK A BIT FOR TODAY...AS THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SO MUCH OUTSIDE OF FALLON COUNTY.

GOING FORWARD INTO MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
WARM...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME
PREFRONTAL WARMING. THIS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. SNOW WILL START AROUND JUDITH GAP EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY
AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD
INSTABILITY...OMEGA HAS INCREASED...AND QG FORCING. IN THE
BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT LEAST 6 TO 8 INCHES. THE
GFS...NAM...AND GEM HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF UPWARDS OF TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS MUCH LEST ONLY AROUND MAYBE A TENTH. GIVEN THE OTHER
INGREDIENTS AND GOOD UPSLOPE WINDS...HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE TOTALS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS....FROM LIVINGSTON THROUGH
BIG TIMBER AND COLUMBUS...AND INTO SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES...FOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
WIND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WATCH MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY FOR JUDITH GAP. REIMER


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES PRETTY QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY GENERATING A DOWNSLOPE
GRADIENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES GOING INTO FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY SOME MODELS STARTING TO HINT AT AN AMPLIFYING PACIFIC RIDGE
THAT COULD DROP SOME ENERGY AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT OTHERS KEEP A MORE ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE WITH JUST
SOME WEAK ENERGY TRANSITING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATER
EXTENDED FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF A ROUNDUP TO
SHERIDAN LINE TODAY. ALONG WITH THE LOWERED CEILINGS ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030 012/037 006/015 903/026 017/044 028/047 027/050
    0/U 02/W    85/J    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 030 011/037 003/013 907/030 018/042 027/045 028/048
    0/U 04/W    96/J    11/B    00/B    12/W    11/B
HDN 032 007/040 008/017 903/025 013/045 025/048 025/051
    0/B 01/B    75/J    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B
MLS 027 006/036 004/013 903/020 010/043 025/044 025/049
    1/B 01/B    42/J    11/U    00/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 027 007/037 005/014 904/020 008/043 022/046 022/050
    1/B 00/U    64/J    11/B    00/B    01/B    10/B
BHK 025 005/035 003/011 906/016 007/041 022/041 022/046
    2/J 00/U    41/N    11/B    10/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 025 004/036 005/010 910/019 007/042 020/045 022/047
    0/U 00/U    97/J    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 34-38-39-41-56-64>67.
     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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