Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 161554
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
954 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Satellite showing mostly sunny skies across the forecast area
this morning and this is expected to continue throughout the day.
However, a weak cold front across northeast Montana will slide
south today working its way into our eastern portions which will
bring some clouds across mainly Custer and Fallon Counties so I
have added this to the grids for the afternoon. It will still be a
bit breezy today but much lighter than Saturday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and this combined with
much lighter winds will make for a much nicer day. No other
updates planned this morning. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Today, an upper low over southern Canada will dive
southeastward with associated cold front clipping easternmost
Montana late this afternoon. Expecting a pleasant Easter Sunday
with highs in the low 50s and mainly clear skies. Upper-level
ridging slides in place which should keep the lows in the upper
30s to low 40s in the foothills and central Plains. By Monday
morning, a small upper-level disturbance moves across central
Idaho and into Montana. Low-level wind response briefly switches
to upslope on Monday morning but then downslope winds take hold
and clear things out from Billings westward to Livingston. Best
chance for rain will be in the morning and early afternoon in the
Livingston foothills and Absarokas. By late afternoon, surface low
develops over northeastern Wyoming with showers forming from
Rosebud county eastward. Given the weak forcing and downslope wind
component have kept just scattered showers for Billings on
Monday. Decent pressure gradient will develop by late afternoon
with the surface low over the eastern Plains, expect wind gusts in
the 35 to 45 mph range behind the front. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Tuesday shortwave ridging will yield to southwesterly flow aloft
which yields a warmup but will see increasing moisture aloft with
some mountain shower activity. A splitting wave moves through the
region early on Wednesday with the stronger piece inducing
cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. Easterly flow on the north
side of the induced surface low increases moisture over northern
Wyoming and portions of southeast Montana. Models consistently
produce showers into a weak surface trough over southeast Montana
during this period so have raised pops.

By early Thursday this system exits to the east and another
shortwave ridge moves into the the area ahead of a splitting
trough over the Pacific Northwest. This slows down the progressive
pattern and temperatures warm back up into the mid to upper 60s
while moisture increases a bit for the southwest Mountains.
Pattern could see some limited diurnal showers over the plains but
little forcing is around to generate more than the spotty showers
if even that much. By Saturday the axis of the split trough moves
over the rejoin and fills with little change in the weather.
borsum

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with mostly clear skies through the day. Most winds will be
westerly today and trend easterly tonight. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 040/063 040/064 044/059 039/063 040/063 041/063
    1/U 14/T    21/E    23/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 054 036/057 036/061 037/058 030/061 032/061 033/062
    1/U 35/T    23/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
HDN 059 041/066 038/067 042/060 037/064 038/064 039/065
    1/U 13/T    21/B    25/W    21/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 056 036/065 039/065 045/059 039/063 040/064 041/064
    0/U 13/W    31/B    24/W    21/U    01/U    11/B
4BQ 057 036/068 038/065 044/056 038/061 038/061 038/063
    0/U 13/T    21/B    45/W    31/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 053 030/060 035/061 039/056 036/059 035/060 036/061
    0/B 13/W    51/B    24/W    31/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 055 039/066 036/064 041/054 036/058 035/059 036/061
    0/U 13/T    21/B    35/W    31/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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