Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 160848
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
DECIDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE/MIXING WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST LIKE MLS AND BHK WILL LIKELY HOLD THIS
INVERSION IN PLACE...AND BHK MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S.

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME 20 POPS FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FEATURES IN
THE EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST US.
HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
BEST TIMEFRAME FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY WITH THIS OPEN WAVE. TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY...RIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE NIL FROM SATURDAY ON. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 054/087 058/085 057/078 048/073 049/077 047/078
    0/U 01/B    12/T    44/T    20/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 086 050/088 053/082 050/078 042/073 042/077 042/076
    1/U 11/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 085 051/088 055/086 054/079 048/075 046/078 046/079
    0/U 00/B    01/B    43/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 081 050/087 056/087 056/078 050/076 048/078 047/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 083 051/087 055/089 057/078 049/074 048/078 046/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 076 047/083 052/085 055/078 048/073 045/075 044/077
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 083 051/086 053/087 054/077 045/072 042/075 041/075
    0/U 01/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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