Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200927
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IS BEGINNING TO
ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE THIS MORNING AND DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAD
MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING IS
BEING PUSHED BACK SOUTH AS A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS. DRIER DAY ON TAP AS A RESULT AND MORNING IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVER NORTHERN MONTANA SO
EXPECT MUCH MORE SUNSHINE THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S AS A RESULT.

BROAD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO INTRODUCE BIT
OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA OVERNIGHT BUT FLOW ALOFT IS
PRETTY WEAK. A BETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS BUT SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED SO HAVE A BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AFTER 00Z FOR PLACES LIKE FISHTAIL AND NYE. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER SUNNIER DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
A LONG STANDING LOW CHANCE POP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ANCHORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THUS UPSLOPE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS IN
GENERAL. A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL FOCUS POPS AROUND THEM AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL KICK INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING ON FRIDAY OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE ENTERING UTAH. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. STRONGEST FORCING SLIDES OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL RESIDE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CLIMB TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE MUCH...BUT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME WOULD DIRECT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MORE
INTO THE DAKOTAS RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY SUNDAY.
SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO DID NOT MAKE LARGE CHANGES.
TRIED TO FOCUS THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS AND OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND NOT BE ABLE
TO WARM TREMENDOUSLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY
WINDS. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK SYSTEM OVER WYOMING WILL LINGER CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING. KLVM AND KSHR WILL
EXPERIENCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY
LATE MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 039/067 044/070 046/067 046/064 045/069 048/071
    0/B 01/B    12/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
LVM 057 037/064 040/068 042/064 043/063 041/067 042/068
    1/N 12/W    24/T    44/T    55/T    44/T    44/T
HDN 063 037/070 044/072 045/069 046/066 045/071 048/073
    0/B 11/U    12/T    33/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
MLS 064 038/070 044/070 046/067 048/064 046/069 048/072
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    44/T    43/T    22/T
4BQ 060 035/067 042/066 044/065 047/063 044/068 047/072
    1/B 10/U    12/T    34/T    55/T    53/T    33/T
BHK 062 034/068 040/066 043/062 044/061 044/066 045/070
    0/U 00/U    02/T    24/T    45/T    53/T    33/T
SHR 056 034/063 041/064 040/064 043/061 041/066 044/068
    1/B 11/B    13/T    34/T    55/T    53/T    34/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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