Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 152142
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
242 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED
OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BIG TIMBER EAST OVER
NIGHT. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW PACIFIC ENERGY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF BRING WEAK QG FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING IS VERY MINIMAL
WITH WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING TO
TAKE PLACE. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEAK FLOW STILL DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AND WITH THAT
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS. AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN AND THE AREA WILL DRY OUT.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS
A JET MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE
EVOLUTION OF THE JET...WHICH WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN CANADA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE
WINDY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OUT TO AROUND BILLINGS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...HAS TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN GENERAL BE ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND LIVINGSTON.
THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITION...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 014/028 019/036 022/038 023/038 024/042 024/043 032/047
    00/B    11/B    11/B    10/U    01/N    11/N    13/W
LVM 015/034 023/042 024/041 023/041 025/043 024/042 033/046
    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U    11/N    12/W    23/W
HDN 008/029 014/034 014/037 017/037 016/040 018/041 026/045
    00/B    12/J    11/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    13/W
MLS 012/027 015/030 017/037 020/037 018/038 021/040 028/044
    00/B    11/B    11/B    10/U    01/U    11/B    12/W
4BQ 012/030 016/034 017/039 018/040 017/041 020/042 026/046
    00/B    12/J    11/B    10/U    00/U    11/B    13/W
BHK 012/024 011/028 015/035 019/038 018/037 020/039 025/043
    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    00/U    11/B    13/W
SHR 009/030 016/036 015/037 016/038 017/040 018/041 024/044
    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    01/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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