Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 162345
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
545 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued quick update for PoP`s and wind over the next couple of
hours. Rest in good shape. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Cold front moved through the entire area by 15Z and was followed
by 3 hour pressure rises in the 2-3 mb range, as well as deep
mixing, which created wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. The
combination of the left-front quadrant of a W to E oriented jet
and vorticity moving through the area, generated scattered showers
as well as a few thunderstorms due to steep lapse rates. Models
were in agreement in shifting the precipitation S this evening as
jet divergence moves S. The winds will decrease with sunset.

Upper ridging then builds over the area tonight through early
Saturday. The flow aloft becomes more active from the WSW late
Sat. through Sat. night. Models showed some moisture moving into
the SW mountains Fri. afternoon through Fri. evening. Little, if
any precipitation is expected with this moisture. Mixing will be
limited on Friday so temperatures will mainly reach the lower 50s.
Saturday will be dry under the ridge, and mixing to at least 700
mb will allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s over parts
of the central zones. Lee troughing develops late Fri. night and
continues into Saturday. Have increased winds in Livingston and
Nye areas, but would not expect Advisory strength winds. The next
cold front moves into the area Sat. night and will bring a good
chance of showers to the western zones with slight chances over
the central zones. Arthur

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Shortwave passage will bring a good chance of showers along with
cooler conditions on Sunday (after a very warm Saturday).
Lingering frontogenesis along with divergence in RRQ of 100+ kt H3
jet to our north will keep the potential for precipitation going
thru Sunday night. As 850mb temps fall to near 0c, there is a
chance of a mix with wet snow, but would not expect much if any
accumulation at lower elevations.

Models begin to diverge Monday/Monday night, but overall theme
suggests moisture plume/baroclinicity will keep the chance of
showers going across our far south Monday, perhaps lifting north
Monday night with mid level warm front. Cooler easterly surface
winds will prevail through Monday, when high temps may struggle to
get out of the 40s.

Better potential for a dry day on Tuesday as warm front lifts
north and upper level ridge holds over our region. This should
also be a warmer day with temps getting back to the 50s.

Shower potential will increase again beginning Wednesday as ridge
axis shifts east, opening the door for shortwave energy lifting up
the great basin in SW flow aloft. A more dynamic low in the
central Rockies may enhance the precipitation potential Wednesday
night and Thursday, but plenty of model spread exists here. If we
are impacted by a stronger mid level low, it does look warm enough
to keep lower elevation p-type at just rain. Will need to watch
model trends for the middle part of next week. Will stay near
model consensus for high temps somewhere in the 50s to near 60F
for Wed/Thu.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered rain showers and gusty NW winds will continue through
sunset. Expect gusts of 25-35 kts along with brief/local MVFR
conditions with the heavier showers. An isolated lightning strike
is also possible. Showers and winds will decrease through the
evening. VFR and lighter winds can be expected late tonight and
Friday. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/053 036/076 043/055 031/048 031/055 038/059 038/057
    20/B    00/B    24/W    21/B    21/E    22/W    33/W
LVM 027/050 039/071 042/055 028/049 031/058 038/058 034/056
    20/B    01/N    54/W    32/W    21/E    23/W    33/W
HDN 026/050 030/079 040/057 028/049 028/054 031/058 033/058
    20/B    00/B    24/W    21/B    21/B    22/W    33/W
MLS 031/052 032/076 042/055 029/047 028/049 033/053 034/054
    20/U    00/B    14/W    21/B    11/B    22/W    23/W
4BQ 029/051 031/079 036/055 028/048 027/052 030/056 033/054
    20/U    00/B    14/W    21/B    21/E    12/W    23/W
BHK 028/051 028/066 036/052 027/045 023/044 029/051 030/050
    10/U    00/B    03/W    20/B    01/B    12/W    23/W
SHR 031/053 033/078 042/056 030/048 028/056 034/060 034/054
    20/B    00/B    14/W    22/W    21/B    22/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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