Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 141647
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
947 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Quite the contrast in temperatures across the area this morning.
Almost a 60 degree spread between our warmest and coldest
temperatures. Temperatures near Cooke City were down to near -25 F
with middle 30s above zero along the foothills. Another nice day
is on tap today. No major changes were made to the forecast this
morning. Adjusted sky cover and temps to current trends and nudged
down high temperatures a few degrees in some locations.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and the
previous forecast discussion is below. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

A quiet weekend can be expected as a split flow aloft will be
over the forecast area. Weak ridging and rising heights can be
expected today and Sunday resulting in mostly sunny skies and
slightly warmer temperatures. A weak lee-side trough will be in
place which will allow for continued windy conditions mainly from
Billings westward. This may allow for some blowing and drifting
snow but impacts are expected to be minimal.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend. Highs in
the lower 20s east to lower 30s west will be likely today with
readings a few degrees warmer yet for Sunday with the warmest
temperatures along the Beartooth/Absaroka foothills. However,
temperatures will continue to be challenging due to snowpack and
local drainage effects. As a result, we will continue to undercut
guidance quite a bit with forecasted highs. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Get ready for a mid winter thaw and plenty of lower elevation
snow melt next week.

No major changes to the extended forecast tonight, as the main
theme remains the same: a transition to Pacific flow, strong lee
side downsloping and much warmer temperatures in our cwa.

Monday should remain on the cool side of normal in the wake of an
early morning shortwave, which will be dry but produce a little
increased west wind in our east. Lee side trof deepens
considerably Monday night as westerly mid level winds increase.
This will bring a period of enhanced gap flow which will last into
Thursday. It currently looks as if advisory level gusts are a
good possibility at Livingston and Nye.

There is a chance of snow over our western mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday, but lower elevations should remain at least mostly dry,
and latest models are drier even for our west aspects. Greater
chance of precipitation begins Thursday as a deeper Pacific trof
pushes inland. Will keep pops broadbrushed across our region
through Friday, but must note that jet forcing looks to sag well
to our south so do not see anything too dynamic for us in the
current model runs.

Regarding temperatures, strong downslope warming will push temps
into the 40s Tuesday through Thursday, and could see some places
reach 50F as 850mb temps approach +10 or +12C by Wednesday.
Nighttime lows could remain above freezing along the foothills and
over some hills. Looks like gradual cooling to closer to normal
by Friday per some kind of upper level troffing and much lower
heights, but with arctic air shunted well to our north this will
be air of Pacific origin.

Other potential issue could be ice jams by late week as we begin
to melt what is a significant lower elevation snow cover.
Something to think about over the next several days. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area today and
tonight. Westerly winds gusting 20-30 kts along the foothills will
cause localized blowing/drifting snow near KLVM and K3HT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028 013/031 016/032 021/040 031/045 032/044 025/035
    0/N 00/N    00/U    00/N    11/N    11/B    22/J
LVM 032 012/035 014/038 022/041 032/047 034/045 024/035
    0/Q 00/N    00/U    00/N    11/N    22/W    33/J
HDN 024 000/028 007/030 011/037 024/042 023/042 021/033
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    22/J
MLS 019 901/027 011/028 012/035 025/042 025/039 023/034
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    10/B    11/B    22/J
4BQ 025 001/028 006/031 009/036 023/042 022/041 020/033
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    22/J
BHK 025 004/029 009/027 010/037 025/043 026/040 024/034
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    01/B    22/J
SHR 026 005/033 008/034 009/041 022/047 022/045 019/034
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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