Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 142145
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
345 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY. 700MB AND
850MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE EACH DAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR TUESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN
TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
THIS MEANS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS MONTANA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM PRE FRONTAL DAY ON THURSDAY. WARMED TEMPERATURES UP
FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A COOLER FRIDAY. FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICAN
OLDIE...MOVING TOWARD THE BAHA...WILL GET PICKED UP AND PULLED
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS FLATTER WITH THE
OVERALL FLOW AND THUS KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH....WHILE
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. WILL KEEP POPS WHERE THEY ARE AT. FLOW DRIES OUT
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO EKALAKA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/074 050/082 055/085 055/084 052/076 047/074 049/077
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    31/U    00/U
LVM 034/078 040/083 046/085 052/081 047/073 041/074 044/077
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
HDN 040/076 046/081 051/085 053/085 051/077 047/076 047/078
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    31/U    00/U
MLS 039/072 046/080 051/085 054/086 054/076 049/077 049/078
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    31/B    00/U
4BQ 041/072 046/080 049/086 054/088 054/076 048/075 048/078
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    31/B    11/U
BHK 035/067 040/076 046/081 050/084 052/075 047/074 047/075
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    32/W    11/U
SHR 037/074 043/081 048/084 051/083 051/073 044/073 044/075
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    33/T    31/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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