Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 271502
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
902 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN SOME
VERY MARGINAL TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEK.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG CONCERNS HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR NOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH REALLY
LOW RH LEVELS HAS DECREASED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND COUNTER SOME OF THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER US...SO TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OUR NORMALS.

THE ONE QUESTION WE HAVE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHEN WILL
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER RETURN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME MOMENTUM MAY FORCE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANALYZING CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE ROTATING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE QUITE
HIGH...AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. EASTERLY SFC FLOW
ALSO APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED OVERALL UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A THERMAL TROF APPEARS TO BE MAKING
PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING VARIES A BIT...WITH
ECMWF RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE STARTED SPREADING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK...IF CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE A BIT WARMER
DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THERMAL BOUNDARY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089
    0/U 01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 087 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 084 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 083 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 080 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087
    0/U 01/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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