Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 122027
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
227 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...

Bands of showers were moving through the forecast area in unstable
WSW flow this afternoon with decent PWAT`s of .3-.4 inches. Areas
of upper divergence from a jet and orographics were aiding lift.
Updated late day PoPs to take slight chances further E based on
radar trends. With no CAPE and sheared looking cumulus on
satellite, will leave out thunder.

Upper jet will provide divergence to the area tonight with SW flow
aloft. A Pacific cold front with decent 700 mb frontogenesis will
cross the area. Lapse rates will remain steep and PWAT`s will be
around .35 inches. Low temps will generally range through the 30s
with 20s in the mountains. An upper low drops SW of the region
during Wednesday and low to mid-level flow becomes more NNE over
much of the area. A secondary push of colder air moves in from the
N Wednesday night, drying out much of the area.

A mix of rain and snow will spread E across the area tonight,
giving the foothills, KLVM and Paradise Valley around an inch of
snow. PoPs will range from 20-30% E to 70% W. Snow is likely over
the southern mountains. PoPs will favor N to NE upslope areas on
Wednesday and will range from 40-80%. Expect precipitation type to
be snow S and W of KBIL with a mix of rain and snow from KBIL E in
the morning. Precipitation will then be rain from KBIL SE, with a
mix, or all snow, elsewhere. Mixed precipitation will decrease
over the area Wed. night. High temps Wed. will reach the 40s to
lower 50s and mins Wed. night will be in the mid to upper 20s.
Timing of accumulating snow in the Advisories looked good for
KLVM, Paradise Valley, the foothills and the NE Bighorns. Did have
higher QPF based on latest models which resulted in higher snow
amounts in some areas. Concerned about I-90 Wed. morning, with a
few inches of snow expected in S. Big Horn and KSHR areas. Also
concerned with accumulating snow on Lame Deer Divide, so issued an
Advisory from 12Z Wed. through 06Z Thursday for these areas.
Roads will become less slushy during the day but should refreeze
Wed. evening. While probabilities for snow amounts of 2 inches or
greater in the low-elevation Advisory areas were 20-40%, the low
snow totals will create adverse impacts during the commuting
times. Arthur

Thursday through Tuesday...

A closed low off in the southeastern US will continue to create
troughing early Thursday. With troughing beginning to retreat
Thursday, a weak jet over the east will allow for snow showers to
continue that morning mainly for the higher elevations (30-50%)
as well as the Bighorn foothills (15-25%). Ensembles have a couple
of backdoor fronts pushing through as the ridge tries to build in
with a push of moisture Friday night into Saturday. Ensembles are
keeping QPF confined the mountains at this time, so around a
20-40% chance of precip exists. Ridging Sunday through the rest
of the forecast period should provide warm and dry conditions for
the region.

High temperatures will be in the 40s/50s Thursday through Sunday,
warming into the 50s/60s Monday and Tuesday. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated rain/snow showers are currently stretched across the
region. Precipitation should start filling in out west towards
KLVM shortly after 00Z and fill in east. The mountains and
foothills can expect mountain obscurations from snow with lower
elevations getting a scattered rain/snow mix. Expect rain/snow
showers to pick up late Wednesday morning for KSHR. Periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in areas of precip. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/049 029/047 028/056 036/053 027/051 032/066 037/067
    55/O    21/B    10/U    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 032/040 027/043 023/051 031/049 029/051 032/059 034/060
    77/S    51/B    10/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 033/050 027/047 024/057 033/053 023/049 027/066 033/068
    55/O    22/S    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 034/052 027/043 024/054 031/046 020/041 022/058 031/060
    22/R    00/E    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/B    00/U
4BQ 036/049 029/042 023/055 032/049 022/042 022/061 034/065
    35/R    11/E    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 030/054 024/039 021/051 028/043 016/037 017/053 028/057
    01/B    00/E    00/U    00/N    00/B    00/B    00/U
SHR 031/042 027/042 019/051 028/048 025/046 024/061 032/063
    49/O    62/S    10/U    01/B    11/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to
      midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 56-66.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to
      midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 58-138-169.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 64-65.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to
      midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONE 199.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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