Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 152153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
353 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Upper-level jet departing to the northeast this afternoon. Cooler
than forecast temps over the Park has led to increased drainage
winds around Livingston with winds briefly touch 40 mph this
afternoon. Shortwave energy arrives at the southwest mountains
Sunday morning. Shower chances decrease further east over the
Plains, but expecting slight chance PoPs to extend from the
foothills eastward to Forsyth during the afternoon.

Main weather concern is gusty winds developing through the
Paradise Valley during the morning hours tomorrow. Current
thinking is wind gusts around 50 mph will be the max in the
Livingston area. Drainage gap flow will be aided by dynamics as
upper-level low approaches from the southwest. Models indicate
enough capping above the ridgetop to force some of the 700 mb
winds down through the gap especially during the early morning
hours when drainage is going to be optimal. Looks like some mixing
will bring the threat of 40-50 mph from the Livingston northeast
to Harlowton and possibly as far east as Roundup during the

Another upper-level impulse is progged to slide through on Monday
bringing another chance for showers mainly west of a line from
Sheridan to Billings to Roundup. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

A shortwave trough will move over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
Precipitation chances should remain mainly over the higher terrain
and in the lower elevations west of Billings on Tuesday. Then
precip. chances should expand eastward over the plains Tue. night
and Wednesday. Temperatures should be low enough for light snow
over the mountains, but only a rain/snow mix at night in the lower
elevations west of Billings. The forcing with this system appears
weak, so am only expecting light precipitation amounts.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow builds over the region for Thursday
through Saturday. This pattern should yield largely dry weather
for the region. Surface pressure gradient is expected to increase
over the southwestern portion of our CWA beginning Thursday
morning as high pressure builds over western Wyoming and lee
troughing develops east of the mountains. This gradient should
remain in place through Saturday, likely causing windy conditions
in the gap flow areas (i.e. near Livingston).

Temperatures should largely be near seasonal normals Tue-Sat. RMS/Borsum



Winds increasing overnight becoming strong along the foothills and
favored locations in the river valleys including KLVM. Winds
spread into the plains during the day on Sunday behind a cold
front. Showers will develop over the mountains this evening and
spread eastward later tonight. Mountain obscurations expected with
brief MVFR conditions possible in lower elevations in the heavier
showers. borsum



    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
BIL 048/065 044/058 040/057 039/056 035/060 040/065 043/064
    23/W    04/W    21/B    22/W    11/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 045/059 040/053 035/051 031/052 030/056 039/062 041/063
    46/W    16/W    32/W    32/W    11/N    01/N    01/N
HDN 046/067 041/061 039/059 036/057 034/061 037/066 042/066
    23/W    13/W    21/B    22/W    11/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 046/067 040/061 040/058 035/055 035/059 037/065 041/064
    12/W    12/W    31/B    12/W    11/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 046/072 041/063 039/060 035/056 033/060 037/067 041/068
    11/N    12/W    21/B    12/W    11/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 043/069 039/061 038/056 033/053 030/057 033/063 038/064
    01/N    12/W    31/B    02/W    11/B    10/N    11/U
SHR 043/066 039/060 034/057 033/054 030/058 034/066 039/066
    12/W    12/W    11/B    23/W    21/U    00/U    00/U




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