Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 121537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
837 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

Upper ridge will be the dominant feature today, bringing dry
conditions and some gusty winds along the western foothills. Gusts
at Livingston are exceeding 40 mph currently, with Harlowton to
30+ mph, so have adjusted winds up some in each of these areas for
today. This in response to lee side pressure falls and tightening
downslope gradients. Winds at Livingston poorly forecast by
models as temps/pressures are colder/higher over Yellowstone Park
than anticipated. Gusts should stay in the 30s/40s today so no
highlights needed. Otherwise it will be sunny with high temps in
the upper 30s and 40s.

Have let the flood advisory expire for Sheridan County as reduced
snow melt has improved concerns with runoff. Will continue to
monitor runoff/ice jams across the cwa.



.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Quiet weather is expected through the short-term period. Weak
upper ridging today gives way to flat NW flow tonight into Mon.,
then a stronger ridge of high pressure builds over the area later
on Mon. through Mon. night. The models and ensembles were in good
agreement with the pattern. A shortwave moves through the flow
tonight, but lack of moisture will preclude any precipitation.
Other weak waves will move S along the MT/Dakotas border on
Mon. night, but moisture will be too limited for precipitation.
Lee troughing developing over the area early this morning, will
remain over the region into tonight, bringing breezy conditions to
areas from KBIL W. Based on recent temperature trends and expected
850 mb temperatures, have gone a few degrees above blended
guidance for high temperatures each day. Will need to continue to
keep an eye on water issues due to snowmelt, and the breakup of
small ice jams on creeks and streams. Arthur

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Overall, the pattern looks mild and dry through the week. An
amplified ridge will slide over western Montana on Tuesday and
then advance east to cover the forecast area Wednesday. This will
place temperatures firmly in the mid 50s these days with abundant
sunshine. A lee trough will form and increase winds over the west
beginning Tuesday night and continue into early Thursday. The
strongest period of winds looks to be Wednesday night. These winds
would impact the Livingston to Big Timber, northward to Harlowton
areas the most. Warmer temperatures may increase the flood and
ice jam threat a bit more mid week, so will have to watch closely.
A western trough will kick through the area Thursday night and
Friday for a chance of precipitation. This will lead to cooler
weather with additional cloud cover and rising motion, but the
airmas that moves in is not expected to be terribly cold, so looks
to be a mix of rain and snow at this time. Will linger the chance
of mixed precipitation into next weekend with southwest flow
aloft and several shortwaves swinging through. TWH


VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will be much weaker in
most locations compared to Saturday. KLVM can still expect gusts
to 30-40 kts through the day. TWH



    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
BIL 043 023/046 022/050 033/054 036/055 034/050 031/048
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/N    00/N    03/W    11/B
LVM 044 023/047 021/050 033/052 036/054 031/050 030/045
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/N    00/N    24/W    22/W
HDN 044 017/044 017/047 023/051 026/051 031/047 026/043
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    03/W    11/B
MLS 041 021/039 020/044 025/049 031/052 031/047 027/044
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    00/B    02/W    11/B
4BQ 044 019/043 020/048 027/053 031/056 033/052 028/050
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    10/B
BHK 040 019/040 021/046 024/049 030/053 029/048 027/046
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W    10/B
SHR 045 018/047 018/049 024/055 031/057 032/052 025/047
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W    01/B




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