Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 222113
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
SHOWERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A 500-MB TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE TROF IS
PUSHING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MILD TEMPS. SHOULD
SEE 50S WEST...AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER HAMPERS DIURNAL
WARMUP...AND AND 60S EAST...AS MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAYS
IN PLACE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDER...IN AND NEAR WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...AND IN EAST...WITH WARMER TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY AND CAPE. COMBINE THAT WITH INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND TROF CROSSING THE REGION...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY
EASTWARD...EXITING THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD TUESDAY...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOMEWHAT ZONAL BEFORE THE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR EAST AND SETS UP
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
GIVE US A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE REGION. HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN PLACE IN PLAINS AT THIS TIME AS ARE
STILL SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED THROUGH THE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP US WARM UP A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY...THE
COOL START TO THE DAY AND ABBREVIATED WARMUP PERIOD AS THE NEXT
WAVE PUSHES IN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGER PRECIPITATION EVENT...AT LEAST FOR THE
WEST. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING BATCHES OF MOISTURE AND REINFORCING COOL AIR
TUESDAY NIGHT. JET STREAKS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WILL SWITCH TO SNOW OR RAIN
SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL. AAG


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE
EXTENDED. COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME FOOTHILLS. SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY IN BANDS AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS
PATTERN BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
NEXT SYSTEM TOPS RIDGE AND DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS OPEN WAVE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
LIGHT PRECIP EVENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MAINTAINED LOW PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS COULD DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FRIEDERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 038/055 030/048 034/054 033/070 046/069 037/062
    02/W    54/W    44/W    32/W    10/B    01/N    22/W
LVM 037/057 033/049 029/048 034/055 035/069 047/066 037/061
    06/T    55/W    53/W    22/W    10/N    02/W    22/W
HDN 034/067 037/056 028/048 032/053 028/071 039/071 034/064
    02/W    53/W    44/W    32/W    10/B    01/U    22/W
MLS 034/066 039/052 025/045 027/050 027/066 039/068 035/060
    03/T    63/W    32/J    22/W    10/B    01/N    21/B
4BQ 034/069 038/053 027/045 026/049 026/066 038/071 034/060
    03/T    63/W    32/W    22/W    10/B    01/N    21/B
BHK 030/062 035/047 023/039 021/043 022/060 035/067 033/056
    02/W    63/W    32/J    12/W    10/B    01/N    21/B
SHR 033/066 036/053 029/046 028/051 026/068 038/071 036/060
    02/W    53/W    44/W    32/W    10/B    01/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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