Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 160904
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
304 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Things got interesting overnight across south central Montana.
Winds at Livingston were quite strong, gusting above 50 mph for
most of the night. This prompted high profile vehicles to be
detoured on Interstate 90 for a few hours (per MT DOT). This
helped keep temperatures fairly mild across the region, with both
Billings and Livingston sitting at a whopping 58 degrees at 2:30
am. What prompted this was the slower eastward progression of the
surface trough, setting up a strong isallobaric component. The
expectation is these winds will start to die down in the coming
hours.

At the upper levels, the upper level ridge will give way to more
zonal flow, with the onset of a westerly jet streak. A cold front
is currently pushing through central Montana, which is evident by
the increasing prefrontal returns on the KBLX radar to the north
and west. Post frontal mixing will set up a fairly windy day
across the entire CWA, with winds gusting from 30 to 35 mph most
of the day. One last look at the CIPS analog wind gust guidance
confirms this thinking.

One change from the past shift was to increase PoPs in both
coverage and value over the western and central zones for the
morning hours. Expect daytime high temperatures to be in the mid
to upper 50s, with a few 60 F readings possible.

After the front completely moves through later this afternoon,
both the rain chances and winds speeds will diminish.

Friday will bring cooler temps as an upper level ridge begins to
take hold of the Northern Rockies. Singer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Unsettled weather can be expected for the extended as multiple
waves cross the region. A warm and dry day is forecast for
Saturday with a ridge axis over the region and downslope flow at
the surface. A shortwave and associated cold front are then
progged to move through the area Saturday night into Sunday with
increasing shower chances and cooler temperatures, although they
will still be above normal for this time of year. Shower chances
continue over the mountains on Monday as weak energy moves
overhead. Temperatures rebound on Tuesday as shortwave ridging and
southwest flow aloft builds back over the area in response to a
deepening low pressure system off the West Coast. Shower chances
continue over the area Wednesday into Thursday, highest over the
mountains as multiple waves of energy move through the Northern
Rockies.

High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to 70s on
Saturday, cooling into the 50s for Sunday and 40s for Monday. 40s
to 50s can be expected Tuesday through Thursday across the lower
elevations as an unsettled patter remains in place. STP

&&

.AVIATION...


Light showers will affect western areas this morning before
spreading east through the day as a Pacific cold front passes
through the region. Occasional mountain obscurations can be
expected, especially on west facing slopes. Gusty west to
northwest winds will spread across the area today with the frontal
passage. Strongest winds can be expected around KLVM and the
western foothills. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 034/054 037/072 044/056 031/048 031/051 033/053
    4/W 10/B    11/B    23/W    22/W    22/W    23/W
LVM 052 029/055 040/069 042/056 028/050 030/055 033/055
    6/W 11/B    11/B    43/W    22/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 054 032/054 033/075 041/057 028/049 028/052 030/053
    5/W 20/B    11/B    24/W    22/W    22/W    23/W
MLS 056 032/051 032/068 043/055 029/047 028/047 031/048
    3/W 10/U    11/B    14/W    21/B    12/W    23/W
4BQ 061 031/052 032/076 041/057 028/049 027/049 029/052
    2/W 20/U    10/B    13/W    21/B    32/W    13/W
BHK 058 029/047 026/063 038/052 027/045 022/043 026/046
    2/W 10/U    10/B    03/W    21/B    01/B    23/W
SHR 061 032/055 033/072 041/058 030/049 028/054 033/054
    4/W 30/B    10/B    13/W    22/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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