Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 271027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
327 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy...Mon...Tue...

Today is the last mild day for a while. As a splitting trough
begins to work in, much of the area will have a quiet day with
temperatures getting to near 50 this afternoon. There will be some
increased energy and moisture working in from southern Idaho this
morning, which will bring some snow showers to the southwestern
mountains. As the southern branch of the trough begins to wrap up
into a cut off low over South Dakota, winds will begin to shift to
the west and northwest this afternoon and evening. Overnight winds
will begin to increase as well. Reimer

Monday will be the transition day across the region as a storm
system over the eastern Dakotas intensifies. Expect high
temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees below Sunday`s readings,
especially across the east, as cold air advection from the north
quickly brings temperatures down.

The snow begins to pickup east of Forsyth-Sheridan line beginning
on Monday night as wrap around moisture from the east begins to
move into our eastern zones. The northwest winds will increase
late Monday and overnight as the surface low deepens across the
eastern Dakotas, and strengthens the pressure gradient. The
heaviest snow will likely fall early Tuesday morning and will be joined
by 25 to 35 mph northwest winds. The snow will begin to taper off
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday as the storm system begins to
weaken and slide east. When the snow ends, most locations in our
eastern areas will see about 3 to 6 inches of snow, with the
heavier amounts closer to the Montana-Dakotas border. While the
snow will be ending Tuesday evening, the winds will be a little
slow to subside so blowing snow will still be an issue through at
least Wednesday morning.

The main concerns we have with this system will be the blowing
snow, reduced visibilities, and snow covered roads. Travel will
be hazardous, especially Tuesday morning during the heaviest
snow and strongest winds across the east.

Forecast zones west of this Sheridan-Forsyth line (not including the
higher terrain and foothill locations) will not see much snow and
most locations will see less than 0.5-2 inches, with the higher
amounts in this range further east. The mountains will likely see
around 3-5 inches and foothill locations will see around 1-2
inches during this event. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Wednesday will see snow chances begin to decrease. The GFS is a
little faster a moving the moisture out of the east than the
other models, but the trend will see snow moving out through the
day. Thursday a shortwave will move across western Montana
bringing a chance for areas from Billings and Sheridan west
another chance at some snow. The ECMWF is not developing this
shortwave much at all, so there is still much higher
uncertainty with this quick moving system. Through the rest of
the week flow will remain unsettled, but generally drying.
Temperatures will remain much closer to normal. Reimer



VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds
will increase out of the southwest around LVM this afternoon.
Expect some mountain obscurations today. Reimer



    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
BIL 050 031/042 029/039 024/038 025/037 024/036 023/039
    1/E 11/N    22/O    10/U    22/S    21/B    11/N
LVM 047 029/039 026/036 021/036 023/037 021/037 022/039
    2/W 24/W    33/O    11/B    22/S    22/S    12/S
HDN 050 028/043 027/038 023/037 023/036 021/035 019/038
    1/E 11/N    33/O    11/B    12/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 049 029/041 026/035 019/034 017/032 016/035 017/036
    0/B 13/W    87/S    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 051 029/042 024/033 017/032 014/033 013/031 014/035
    0/E 13/W    77/S    31/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 049 024/035 022/029 015/026 011/026 011/029 011/033
    0/E 15/J    97/S    52/S    11/B    11/E    11/B
SHR 046 026/040 022/033 017/033 018/033 013/029 012/034
    2/W 12/W    43/S    11/B    22/S    22/S    11/B




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