Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240954
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
254 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS. ADDITIONALLY
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. THE
AREAS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY STAY DRY AS DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPRESS
ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY.

WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASE AT LIVINGSTON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE STRONGEST AROUND SUNRISE TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE START TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
IN PLACE. ALSO...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN INVERSION
EXISTS JUST BELOW THAT. CURRENTLY THINKING MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
NOT MIX TO SURFACE...AND DO NOT HAVE ANY HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE
PLAINS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARM UP THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BRINGS IN
WARMER WEATHER. WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...THE DOWNSLOPING WILL
HELP TO BRING THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A BENIGN START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN OF WINTER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO UTAH AND WYOMING WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND PUSHING A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST IT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PUSH THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND SOME LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETS UP
BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM FOR A CONTINUED COOLING TREND THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS VEERS THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND
OPENS THE DOOR FOR WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF ARCTIC IMPULSES TO
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. IF LATEST
GFS IS CORRECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES...PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45
KTS. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 037/052 038/054 036/053 037/049 028/042 027/039
    1/N 11/N    00/N    00/U    12/W    21/B    12/O
LVM 051 037/055 038/055 036/053 036/048 028/044 026/041
    1/N 31/N    00/N    00/N    13/W    21/B    12/R
HDN 046 030/049 028/051 029/050 033/047 025/041 024/038
    2/W 21/B    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    12/O
MLS 045 028/046 031/049 030/049 032/043 024/038 024/034
    3/W 11/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    11/B    13/S
4BQ 047 028/049 033/051 030/050 031/046 024/039 023/038
    3/W 21/B    00/B    00/U    12/W    11/B    13/O
BHK 043 024/043 031/047 028/048 030/041 023/035 020/034
    7/W 11/E    10/B    00/U    01/N    11/B    13/S
SHR 047 029/051 032/056 030/051 027/046 024/040 020/037
    3/W 21/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    31/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
      ZONES 41-65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.