Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 112155
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING THE REGION. THIS IS BRINGING AN END TO
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH ITS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO POP UP MOST AREAS. AFTER EVENING SHOWERS QUIT EXPECT A
VERY COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND IN SHERIDAN
COUNTY WYOMING DUE TO THE SNOWFALL. FORECASTING A RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURE IN SHERIDAN ESPECIALLY AS COLD AIR DRAINS OUT OF THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE 6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. COLD MOIST AIRMASS
OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FOG AND EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO BIG HORN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES IN OTHER AREAS
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS...AGAIN THE
NUMBER OF HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES IS THE BIG FACTOR.

EASTERLY FLOW AND A COLD START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY
COOL ON FRIDAY BUT SUNSHINE WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE AIRMASS
WILL ALREADY BE PRETTY COLD SO IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT KEEPS SATURDAY
AGAIN ON THE DRY BUT COOL SIDE. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE THEME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS. NO SOURCES OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WAVE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER MODELS
ARE ALL PASSING THE WAVE NORTH AND KEEPING US DRY WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EVEN IF TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH...WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE
WORTH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND WOULDN`T BE A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM.

CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE TAKING OVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH IFR CIGS STILL HANGING ON IN KSHR.
REDUCED VIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS...BUT TYPICALLY
MVFR TO IFR AT WORST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND KSHR IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/059 037/060 042/063 044/072 048/077 050/079 052/079
    10/U    01/U    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 021/062 031/062 035/066 038/076 044/079 045/080 050/077
    10/U    01/U    11/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 027/061 035/063 041/066 042/074 046/078 047/080 050/081
    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 029/060 037/061 040/065 043/072 046/076 048/078 052/079
    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 027/058 036/061 041/065 043/073 047/077 050/079 052/082
    20/U    01/U    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 027/056 034/059 037/062 040/070 044/073 046/076 048/078
    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 020/052 026/060 036/065 039/074 044/078 046/081 050/079
    30/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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