Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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536
FXUS65 KBYZ 192132
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
332 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Showers and thunderstorms were forming over central and western
areas this afternoon, streaming off to the northeast as a weak
shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft moves through the
region. Temperatures ranged from the 90s to near 100 degrees.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area
through the afternoon and evening as the aforementioned shortwave
advects moisture and instability aloft through the region. Little
to no rainfall is expected along with gusty winds with the
thunderstorms given the large dewpoint spreads and inverted-v
soundings. Convection should gradually taper off later this
evening.

Generally hot and dry weather can be expected through the short
term with high pressure dominating. Weak disturbances moving
through the southwest flow over the area will bring at least a
slight chance for showers/thunderstorms most afternoons/evenings
over the mountains with less activity elsewhere. Temperatures will
range from the 90s to near 100 degrees through the short term. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Friday setting up to be a critical fire weather day with a cold
front moving through the region during the afternoon hours. Timing
still a question of if the front is timed in the late afternoon or
evening since it has slowed up past few runs...but currently looks
like it will arrive around peak heating. Will be very hot ahead of
the front with compressional warming pushing temperatures to 10 to
15 degrees above normal. Unstable conditions ahead of the front
followed by a significant wind shift to northwest during the late
afternoon could cause problems for any existing fires. Could be a
stray thunderstorm but environment does not look real favorable.

Cooler on Saturday and Sunday behind the front as the ridge
continues to be suppressed a bit by trailing disturbances. GFS
extends this trend into early next week while the ECMWF is more
aggressive bringing the warming back. Either way its summer
weather and mainly dry...just a matter of how hot temperatures
will get. borsum

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated thunderstorms will move across the area late this
afternoon but dissipate early this evening. Otherwise expect
mostly clear conditions. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/095 062/095 065/097 060/087 059/091 060/092 061/091
    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 053/093 051/094 056/091 049/085 048/089 051/090 051/090
    12/T    11/U    12/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/096 060/097 061/099 057/087 057/092 059/093 058/092
    21/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 068/100 065/097 068/100 061/087 060/092 063/093 063/092
    21/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 065/102 063/098 067/101 060/088 059/092 061/093 061/092
    20/G    11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 065/100 062/094 064/097 059/084 056/088 058/089 058/088
    21/U    10/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 058/099 057/096 061/098 055/087 053/090 056/092 056/091
    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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