Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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629
FXUS65 KFGZ 151159
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
459 AM MST Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and breezy weather is expected on Sunday, with
strong winds returning on Monday, as a cold front moves into the
state. Cooler conditions will follow this front on Tuesday, with a
warming trend for Wednesday. Strong winds then make another
appearance later next week, on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions will return to the area today as
a weak shortwave ridge begins to exit the region ahead of another
strong trough that will move from the Pacific through the Great
Basin. This will bring a another dry cold front along with strong
gusty winds on Monday.

Winds are expected to be strong enough to warrant a high wind
warning for the higher elevations, mainly over the Coconino
Plateau, Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon Country, the Mogollon Rim,
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas, and the Black Mesa Region.

The main concerns with the high wind warning will be the
extremely difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles,
and possible property damage. Other locations can expect advisory
level wind speeds, which still could pose a hazard to high profile
vehicles.

The other big concern is that the strong winds will combine with
low humidity values to create critical fire weather conditions
monday. The fire weather watch has been upgraded to a red flag
warning.

The main timing of these threats has should exist between 9 am
Monday morning through 10 pm Monday night.

As the system exists the region wind speeds should decrease from
west to east. There is a chance that some wind speeds will remain
strong overnight especially near the New Mexico border. Additional
advisories may be necessary Tuesday for this region to account for
these potential winds.

By wednesday another weak ridge is expected to move into the
region under zonal flow. Temperatures should rebound back toward
climatological normals on Wednesday after the colder temperatures
behind the front on Tuesday.

Another low pressure system is expected to move over the area
Thursday, possibly bringing some shower activity to the region,
unfortunately the trajectory is not favorable for widespread
precipitation over northern Arizona. Most of the shower activity
looks to be minor and limited to the Four Corners Region with
this system.

As the Thursday system exits the area late this week, another
ridge of high pressure looks to develop over the American
Southwest for the Weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
the next 24 hours, with increasing high clouds on Sunday. Expect
Southwesterly breezes from 15 to 25kts 17Z-02Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer weather and breezy southwest winds will
develop today. Strong southwest winds will develop Monday leading to
widespread critical fire weather conditions into Monday evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...Breezy to windy west or northwest winds
are expected Tuesday, becoming lighter on Wednesday. A deep trough
moves into the fire district Thursday bringing more strong and gusty
winds, along with a slight chance for precipitation.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ004-
006>009-012-015-016-039.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ104>118-
137>140.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ005-010-011-
013-014-017-018-037-038-040.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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