Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180324
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
824 PM MST Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cold overnight low temperatures, followed by
warmer weather Wednesday with less wind. Strong winds are
expected again Thursday ahead of a cold front. There will be a
chance of rain and snow showers Thursday night into Friday, then
fair and warmer conditions return for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Passing high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
through Wednesday with lighter winds expected. A very dry air mass
in place tonight combined with clear skies will ensure cold
(below average) overnight low temperatures. No forecast updates
are needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /354 PM MST/...The sharp trough axis has moved
east of the state this afternoon and winds have dropped off. Some
high wind gusts in the 55 to 70 mph range from the White Mountains
into the Saint Johns area from earlier this morning are now only
gusting to 30 to 35 mph and the Wind Advisory has been cancelled.
With low dewpoints and lighter winds, expect overnight lows to be
much colder than the past couple of nights. For Wednesday, we will
get a brief respite from the windy conditions, along with much
warmer afternoon highs.

A fairly deep closed low pressure system is forecast to be
centered near NW Arizona by Thursday afternoon. Very windy
conditions are likely to develop over the majority of northern
Arizona. The strongest winds, possibly bumping up to high wind
warning criteria (gusts 58+ mph), are currently forecast for the
Little Colorado River valley including Winslow, St Johns, and
Springerville. Blowing dust will also likely develop in these same
areas, as well as farther north into the Chinle Valley with some
potentially dangerous travel conditions. Dry conditions ahead of
the front could also lead to critical fire weather, and a Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect for Thursday. Wind Advisories
and/or Warnings will probably be issued over the next couple of
shifts so stay tuned.

As the upper low shifts east to near the four corners by Friday
afternoon, much cooler temperatures will arrive. There will also
be a chance of rain or snow showers (maybe even a thunderstorm)
especially with daytime heating. The higher precip chances will be
along/north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds Friday are forecast to be
significantly lower than Thursday though still in the 15-25 mph
range. For the weekend into early next week, lighter winds and
warmer temperatures are currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the
the 24 hour forecast period. Expect light easterly winds early
Wednesday, becmg light southerly to southwesterly late in the day.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect very dry conditions through Thursday.
Wednesday will have cold morning temperatures warming considerably
through the day. Winds will be generally light northeast to easterly
shifting southeasterly, then south to southwesterly in the
afternoon. A strong cold front approaching the area Thursday will
bring strong winds and widespread critical fire weather conditions
to nearly all of the region.

Friday through Sunday...Scattered light rain and snow showers will
develop behind the front Thursday night and Friday, with much
lighter winds and higher relative humidities. Drying and warming
returns Saturday and Sunday, with generally light winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday
morning through Thursday evening FOR AZZ104>118-137>140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/JJ
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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