Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
212 PM MST Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A strong but mainly dry weather system will approach
northern Arizona today and move across the area on Monday and
Tuesday. Look for gusty afternoon south to southwest winds each
day, strongest on Monday. Limited moisture will result in a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
area. From Wednesday onward, expect the usual afternoon spring
breezes with temperatures warming to above normal levels.


.DISCUSSION...A large scale trough remains situated across the
western U.S. today. An embedded shortwave helped to initiate a few
thunderstorms over the Kaibab Plateau and Vermilion cliffs area,
which are quickly moving into Utah. By early this evening, the
chance for any additional showers along the Utah border will
diminish. Otherwise, seasonably warm and breezy weather is being

The large scale trough will continue to deepen over California
tonight through Monday with an increasing southerly flow setting
up over Arizona. Wind speeds will increase Monday afternoon with
mostly dry conditions expected to continue, leading to critical
fire weather across a portion of east-central Arizona where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph will be
common Monday afternoon, and stronger gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible from Winslow east to New Mexico.

The trough will travel northeast across Arizona on Tuesday. Most
areas will continue to see dry and breezy weather. The best
chance for any shower or thunderstorm activity in association with
the trough will be across northwestern Arizona from Monday
evening through Tuesday. Tuesday will see a slight dip in
temperatures with the trough passage.

Dry weather and a substantial warming trend are forecast from
Wednesday into next weekend as a sharp ridge of high pressure
builds north across the state. Daytime temperatures will reach
about 10 degrees above average by next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours.  Slight chance of afternoon -tsra will continue to
diminish through he evening. Winds SW 10-20kts gusts 30kts through
02z, then variable to 10 kt. South winds after 18z Monday 15-20 kts
with gusts to 25-35kts. Strongest winds mostly north of the
Mogollon Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect Monday afternoon for
southeastern Coconino county and southern Apache and Navajo
counties. Winds shift south for Monday with gusts 25 to 35 mph. The
strongest winds will be north of the rim. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms for NE Apache county Monday afternoon. Winds
decrease Tuesday but conditions remain near critical fire weather.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms forecast for western
Coconino County Tuesday afternoon.

.Wednesday through Friday...Fair weather returns for Wednesday
through Friday with a warming trend in temperatures and light


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from noon to
7 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ113-114-116-117.




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