587
FXUS65 KFGZ 060456
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
956 PM MST Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through the weekend. Temperatures continue to climb into
next week, along with gradually returning chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday...Near normal temperatures and
mainly dry conditions remain over the remainder of the holiday
weekend. A few isolated showers and potentially a thunderstorm
will be possible over the White Mountains this afternoon, however
any activity will be minimal. Moisture continues to increase into
Sunday as high pressure begins to build over New Mexico and become
amplified by a cut-off low off of California. As a result, chances
for showers and thunderstorms increase on Sunday, mainly over the
higher terrain. With PWATs still only around 0.50-0.80", coverage
should remain fairly isolated and the threat for flash flooding
minimal.

Monday through Friday...Guidance continues to favor a strong area of
high pressure (596-598 dam) building over Arizona by the middle of
next week. While moisture does look to still be in place to some
degree, the resulting subsidence inversion from the ridge will act
to suppress any real chances for storm activity. Nevertheless, daily
chances remain each afternoon, but remain slim and largely confined
to the higher terrain.

Hot temperatures look to be the main story for the middle of next
week with the anomalously high heights. Afternoon highs in the upper
80s F to lower 90s F can be expected across the higher terrain, with
the lower deserts in the 100s F to near 115F in the warmest locations.
An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the Lower Elevations of
the Grand Canyon, with additional headlines potentially needed for
the lower elevations of Yavapai County by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 06/06Z through Monday 07/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, slight chance of thunderstorms from 18Z to 03Z over
higher terrain. Winds light and variable or terrain driven
overnight, SW 5-10kts, gusts to 20kts during the day, light and
variable or terrain driven Sunday night into Monday morning.
Winds could be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 07/06Z through Wednesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, slight chance of thunderstorms over higher terrain from
18Z to 03Z each day. Winds SW-W 10kts, gusts 20-25kts during the
day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Winds could
be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...A warming trend will
continue through the next several day, along with mostly dry
conditions. Minimum afternoon RH values forecast to be 10-20%. 20-
40% chance of high base showers/thunderstorms each afternoon,
primarily across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Afternoon
winds look to be out of the west-southwest 10-20 mph. Gusty/erratic
winds possible near showers/storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue. 15-35% chance of showers near the White Mountains each
afternoon. Look for minimum RH values between 8-20%. West-northwest
winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday, becoming more westerly 10-20 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff