Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 AM MST Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring strong winds and dangerous
fire weather conditions to the area through Tuesday. A slight cool
down follows the front for Tuesday, with a warming trend
Wednesday. Strong winds and a chance of rain and snow showers make
another appearance later next week, on Thursday and Friday.


Winds continue to remain strong across the area as a cold front
slowly traverses the state. A wind advisory remains in place for
the Mogollon Rim eastward to the New Mexico state line. Winds will
begin to decrease this morning in the western part of the area
before finally dropping in the evening hours tonight.

As this vigorous shortwave exits the region, an induced ridge of
high pressure will develop on Wednesday before the next shortwave
trough impacts the region on Thursday. This ridge will allow for
temperatures to spring board back to near climatological normal
values after being about 10 degrees below normal at most locations
on Tuesday.

On Thursday the next trough will track further south before
crossing into the four corners region. This track will allow for
moisture to move in with the trough and subsequent model runs
continue to increase the chance of precipitation further south
with this system, starting late thursday and continuing into Friday.

Unfortunately ahead of the associated cold front winds will once
again be strong winds and dry conditions unaffected by the
incoming moisture. This scenario will lead to another possibility
for critical fire weather conditions. A fire weather watch has
been issued for Thursday.

As previously mentioned, the potential for more widespread showers
and even a thunderstorm or two may develop Thursday afternoon into

Additional highlights including a wind advisory may become
necessary in the near future as confidence in the details
increases ahead of this system.

As this system exits the region, another round of high pressure
ridging develops over the weekend and lasting into early next


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will persist
through the forecast period as a cold front crosses northern
Arizona today. Southwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts
from 30-50 kts continuing this morning, fastest winds along and
south of I-40. Winds shifting to west then northwest 10-20 gusts to 30 mph.
Wind speeds decreasing after sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...The surface front just moving across the Arizona Utah
border early this morning, and will be moving southeast today. Critical fire
weather conditions are seen this morning across southern portions of
Navajo and Apache counties and will persist until this evening.
Elsewhere winds will shift to the west-northwest and slowly
decrease in speeds through this afternoon. Expect fair weather
tonight. Wednesday, winds will be lighter and out of the south.

Thursday through Saturday...A deep trough of low pressure will bring
gusty southwest winds Thursday into Friday. Critical fire weather conditions are
anticipated Thursday afternoon across all of northern Arizona. This system
could bring scattered snow and rain showers, mainly north of the Mogollon Rim.
Drying and warming returns Saturday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening FOR AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning FOR AZZ009-010-012-015-

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ111-113-114-

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ011-014-017.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning FOR AZZ013-040.




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