Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warmer and breezy weather today, with a cold
front bringing stronger winds on Monday. Cooler conditions will
follow this front on Tuesday, with a warming trend for Wednesday.
Strong winds then make another appearance later next week, on
Thursday and Friday.


.DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude ridge will flatten out and move east
today, ahead of a vigorous trough due Monday. This trough will enter
northwestern Arizona Monday night and will then exit the state late
Tuesday morning. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the trough axis and
cold front will reach at least advisory levels in most areas, with
speeds in excess of 60 mph in the western zones Monday afternoon and
possibly the eastern zones Tuesday morning.

Currently, we have a variety of wind and fire danger products out
for Monday, nothing for Tuesday. It is likely at least some lower
end headlines will be needed for Tuesday, mainly in Apache county.

The cold front will be dry once again, with only a very slight
chance of a shower or two along the Utah border.

After some recovery in temperatures on Wednesday, strong winds
return for Thursday and Friday. Current solutions have this late
week system coming farther south and rain and snow showers are
looking more probable. No updates this morning.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect increasing mid and high
cloudiness later today and tonight, though VFR conditions will
persist. Breezy southwesterly winds of 10-17G20-27KT will develop
into the afternoon, then stay locally gusty Sunday night. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer weather and breezy southwest winds will
develop today. Strong southwest winds will develop Monday leading to
widespread critical fire weather conditions into Monday evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...Breezy to windy west or northwest winds
are expected Tuesday, becoming lighter on Wednesday. A deep trough
moves into the fire district Thursday bringing more strong and gusty
winds, along with a slight chance for precipitation.



High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday for AZ Public Zones

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday for AZ FWX Zones

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday for AZ Public Zones




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