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000
FXUS64 KMAF 082314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and moderate occasionally gusting southeast winds
will continue the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Have a shortwave passing across the Panhandle today as a weak upper
ridge over the area gives way to an approaching trough as a closed
low sits off the WA/OR coast.  This trough will put the region into
SW flow aloft.  This low will work down the West Coast moving ashore
CA early Thursday before rolling across AZ and NM Thursday and
Friday.  This low will lift across Ern NM and the Panhandle Sunday.

Overall looking for warmer... drier and windier conditions. Will
have a south wind the next few days. High clouds this afternoon
flowing in from the W will continue through the night. Temperatures
will be Warmer tomorrow in the 70s and 80s. Wednesday looks to be
the warmest day of the week with widespread 80s. Thursday and
Friday will remain above normal then a pacific front blows through
Saturday with a gusty west wind in its wake.

Not much rain chance the next couple of days then on Thursday and
Friday evening could see storms develop along a retreating
dryline... some of these may be strong.  The best chance will be for
the NE Permian Basin.

Looking at multiple days of high wind possible in the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains starting Wednesday.  Will go ahead and put out a
High Wind Watch for Wednesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be increasing over the next several days
as we observe a warming and drying trend, especially in our western
CWA. High clouds are expected to dominate the region every day
through Saturday. Temperatures will be near normal today but will be
well above average Tuesday through Friday. After today, RHs will
begin to fall below critical levels, beginning out across the
mountains and plains of SE New Mexico and Culberson County Tuesday
and spreading eastward for Wednesday through Friday. 20ft winds
across the west will be picking up, and sustained winds could be as
high as 35 mph in the Guadalupe Mnts on Tuesday with RFTIs of 4 and
5. A fire danger statement will likely be needed for Tuesday for the
Mnts and adjacent Plains.

Wednesday and Thursday, RHs across SE New Mexico will drop below 10%
with poor to fair overnight recovery. RHs will reach critical levels
across the W Permian Basin, Big Bend region, Davis mountains and the
adjacent foothills by Wednesday as well. Winds will also be
increasing Wednesday and Thursday, with 20ft sustained southwesterly
winds of 35-40 mph in the mountains and 20-30 mph across the
aforementioned areas. Widespread 5+ RFTIs are expected, and
combining that with the drier conditions and warming trend, a Fire
Weather Watch will likely be needed for Wednesday and Thursday.
Additionally, some thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night
through Saturday thanks to a retreating dryline colliding with a
Pacific front. The greatest chances for precipitation will be in the
Permian Basin and areas along and north of the Trans Pecos.

Fire weather conditions will slightly improve for Friday as winds
will weaken significantly everywhere except for the higher terrain.
However, critical RHs will still be seen across the western side of
the TX/NM border. By Saturday, increasing moisture and cooling
temperatures will help curb fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  74  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       44  83  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  78  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  74  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  75  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  81  49  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10