Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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671
FXUS64 KMAF 162246
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
546 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR will prevail through the period. Winds will gradually swing
back to the south this evening before becoming more southwest
Monday afternoon at all terminals except KMAF. Isolated storms are
possible in the Permian Basin this evening, but look to stay away
from the terminals. Finally, low cigs are possible again at KMAF
and KHOB by morning, but much uncertainty exists so will reassess
with the next TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low/trough is centered over Southern California and Nevada
with west winds aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A
dryline will once again be across the area today with a surface
trough from Southeast New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. Surface
CAPE values will be high with 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg expected according
to the NAM12. Bulk shear will generally be 30 to 35 kts which is a
little less than yesterday. Mid-level lapse rate values will be
sufficient but there does not appear to be as much lift east of the
dryline during the afternoon and early evening as yesterday. Strong
to severe storms are possible but do not expect as much coverage as
yesterday due to less upper lift. Temperatures today are expected to
be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday.

The upper trough moves over the Four Corners region on Monday and a
dryline will remain present across West Texas. The dryline will be
across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with
moderate to high values of CAPE, shear, and mid-level lapse rates
expected. There is also expected to be an increase in upper lift
around 00z along and east of the dryline so if convection develops,
it will likely be strong to severe. More storms are expected to
develop along the dryline as the upper low moves closer to the
region Monday night. This may trigger a second round of storms that
will develop over or move into the northern and eastern Permian
Basin early Tuesday morning. Cooler temperatures are expected on
Tuesday with highs mostly in the 80s as the upper trough begins to
move over the region. The dryline will be across the far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos according to the NAM12 on
Wednesday. This will allow for a chance of storm development along
and east of the dryline Wednesday afternoon and evening.

An upper trough will dig south and eastward over the western part of
the country on Thursday with temperatures across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico mostly in the 80s and 90s. Similar conditions
are expected for Friday. The upper trough will move closer to the
region on Saturday with a dryline across the area so thunderstorm
chances will increase. This trend will continue into next Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  89  62  84 /  20  10  60  40
Carlsbad                       58  89  55  85 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         69  94  66  93 /   0  20  40  10
Fort Stockton                  65  92  61  89 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  81  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  86  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          50  87  49  82 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  90  61  85 /  20  10  40  20
Odessa                         66  90  60  86 /  20  10  40  10
Wink                           63  93  58  89 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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