Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 200837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
237 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Deep dry westerly flow is now in place in wake of a mid/upper level
trough. Satellite shows that there are a high clouds moving across
nrn Mexico in sw-w flow aloft. As such we expect the mostly clear
skies early this morning to become mostly cloudy by noon and
persist until around sunrise Thur. 85h temps do increase from
those of yesterday and highs will be about 15-20 degrees warmer,
but still 6-10 degrees below normal. The low-level thermal ridge
will amplify Thur and remain so Fri. Correspondingly high temps
will go back above normal (5 degrees or so). Southerly winds will
be on the breezy side across the PB Thur PM. Looking to the w yet
another upper low will be moving through AZ and sw winds aloft
will start to respond late Fri PM, winds in the upper elevations
of GDP Mtns will increase. There are some slight timing difference
in models wrt the trough into Sat, but all models agree it will
pass to the n. Said trough does drag a mid-level moist axis along
with it and light precip will be possible mainly between 06Z-12Z
Sat. 7h temps do support the possibility of SNSH in the GDP Mtns.
ECMWF is a little more optimistic with light precip Sat AM across
SE NM and PB, we will have to wait and see on that? An associated
fast moving cold front will move through early Sat AM likely
leaving windy/very windy conditions in its wake. By 12Z/Sat w
winds of 25-30 mph are possible across much of the area. Highlights
will likely be needed for the GDP/Davis Mtns, not sure about
plains just yet. The downslope component will off set the cooling
some, highs will probably end up in the 60-65 degree range, except
colder in elevations above 6000 ft and warmer along the Rio
Grande. This should be a pretty good set up for cool/cold temps
Sun AM. A rapid warm up will follow Sun PM and continue Mon. A dry
front will have either moved thru Tue AM or still to the n of the
PB Tue PM (GFS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  39  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       57  34  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  43  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  62  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  37  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  32  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  32  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  40  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  35  73  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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