Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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944
FXUS64 KMAF 190520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds will continue the next 24
hours. TS will increase from that seen Wednesday but still not
enough to mention in the TAFs though storms may approach
CNM/HOB/PEQ.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The heat is on this afternoon as temperatures have warmed well into
the 90`s at most locations. The record high at Midland Intl is 98
degrees and is very possible we could tie that today.

It looks like one more fairly quiet day before we see a more
active weather pattern over the next week. Scattered showers and
storms over the higher terrain and adjacent plains this afternoon
will become more numerous and spread east by late week. This will
occur as a more well-defined shortwave deepens an upper trough to
our west. Increasing lift will spread over the region to help
enhance thunderstorm chances Thursday into this weekend. There
will be a potential for locally heavy rainfall as low level
moisture moves back in from the Gulf across the area.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the
current forecast cycle with slightly cooler temperatures only
expected if we see some clouds and rain.

We are still watching a potentially large storm system that will dig
to our west next week. There is still much disagreement with
regard to what will happen with this system, but quite a few
ensemble members are suggesting a more western track. This would
keep most of the rain to our west, but it is way to early to tell
so stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  71  90 /  30  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       68  93  68  91 /  40  30  30  40
Dryden                         74  96  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  92  70  90 /  20  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  84  64  82 /  30  30  40  40
Hobbs                          66  89  67  87 /  40  30  40  50
Marfa                          61  88  62  86 /  20  50  40  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  71  90 /  30  30  20  30
Odessa                         70  93  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
Wink                           71  95  71  92 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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