889
FXUS64 KMAF 191910
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Another unseasonably warm day is underway, as midlevel ridging
maintains its hold over the region. Subsidence beneath this ridge
will largely mitigate precipitation chances today, though there
remains a low potential (10%) for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop off of the Davis Mountains across the
adjacent plains late this afternoon, weakening and diminishing
quickly early this evening. Lightning and wind gusts would be the
primary concerns if any storms manage to develop. Highs this
afternoon are on target to top out in the 90s for most, with lower
100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Heading into
tonight, lows remain on the mild side, in the upper 70s to lower
70s, with upper 50s possible across the Marfa Plateau.

Friday will see a continuation of above normal temperatures,
though the ridge will begin shifting northeastward in response to
a trough translating across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest.
Ahead of this feature, a fetch of subtropical moisture will result
in an uptick in precipitation chances, mainly across far West
Texas and New Mexico. Increasing ascent and decreasing subsidence
across western reaches of the area Friday afternoon could yield a
few isolated storms in the vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains and
western Eddy County, though the potential remains low (10-15%).
In addition to the shift in precipitation chances, the eastward
shift in the ridge and decrease in thicknesses will allow
temperatures to trend slightly downward on Friday as well, with
highs in the 90s for most. Thereafter, another quiescent night is
expected, with diminishing storm chances through the evening and
lows once again in the 60s and 70s.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A cooling trend sets in this weekend into next week as ridging
begins to subside, with thicknesses decreasing as deterministic
and ensemble solutions depict troughing amplifying over the
western CONUS and developing eastward. On Saturday as the trough
is positioned over the Four Corners, southwest flow aloft over W
TX and SW NM will increase deep layer shear to 35-45 kts. SPC
currently has a marginal risk outlined north of our CWA over much
of E NM into the W TX PH. Closer to the trough, SPC mentions a
50-65 kt jet streak rounding the base of the the trough and
ejecting northeast from E NM. Steeper mid-level lapse rates at
this time also appear to be located north of the CWA. The approach
of this trough will aid large-scale ascent for storm development
with destabilization from daytime heating. Model soundings over SE
NM and the Upper Trans Pecos depict dry subcloud
layers/inverted-V signatures, indicative of damaging wind risk in
any stronger storms that develop. At the surface, additional lift
provided along a front/dryline during the afternoon is predicted
to result in storm formation during the afternoon over the SE NM
plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. Highest PoPs at
this time look to be located farther north of the SE NM plains,
but trends in PoP coverage and magnitude will be monitored.
Southeast winds will keep dew point temperatures in the 60s, 50s
westernmost regions, so the relatively warm, humid air this week
will continue to be present Saturday. Saturday will be the warmest
day in the long term, with highs 8 to 12 degrees above average
and rising into the 90s, 80s in northern Lea County and higher
elevations, and triple digits right along the Rio Grande. Lows
Saturday night stay around 10 degrees above average, in the 60s,
70s and above for most for the Permian Basin into the Upper Trans
Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Rio Grande.

On Sunday, the trough is forecast to eject into the Central
Plains and the front/dryline pushed farther east into the CWA and
oriented SW-NE. Timing and location of cold frontal passage is
uncertain at this time. Diabatic heating might slow down southward
progress of the front, whereas convection along/east of the front
might negate this effect and push the front farther south. As the
front moves into the area, thicknesses decrease and temperatures
will be notably cooler, only about 5 degrees above average and in
the 80s, 90s over the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande, and triple
digits right along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. With lower
highs temperatures, low temperatures on Sunday night will decrease
to lower values than Saturday night, 50s over northern parts of
SE NM plains and Permian Basin as well as higher elevations, 60s
elsewhere aside from 70s near the Rio Grande.

The pattern change from warmer to cooler weather continues next
week. Zonal flow will set up over the CWA as the trough ejects
toward the Great Lakes. However, orientation of the front that
pushes through this weekend is uncertain, and this front will
continue to provide lift for showers and storms over most of the
area. Highs will be a few degrees below average by Monday, 70s
over most of SE NM plains, northern Permian Basin, and higher
elevations, and 80s elsewhere aside from 90s close to the Rio
Grande. Lows Monday night will be similar to Sunday night.

Tuesday, grids show southeasterly return flow, with a recovery in
high temperatures to slightly above normal and similar to Monday,
as well as lows similar to the previous night. If solutions in
the ECMWF and CMC pan out with the trough farther south than the
GFS and a cold front more likely to move through, NBM indicates
Wednesday could be the coolest day in the long term, highs around
5 degrees below average and in the 70s and 80s for most, with lows
falling into the 50s and 60s, and similar albeit slightly warmer
but still below average highs and near average lows next Thursday
and Thursday night. Rain chances in grids increase areawide
Tuesday into Wednesday associated with the front. However this far
out, synoptic and mesoscale details remain uncertain, with a more
active weather pattern subject to change as is common this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue the next 24
hours. Winds will be elevated and intermittently gusty this
afternoon and evening at West Texas terminals, with gusts to
20-25kt possible. Gusts will largely diminish prior to 20/06Z,
though FST will likely see gusts through daybreak. There is a low
(10%) probability of showers and thunderstorms to the west of FST
and south of PEQ this afternoon, with no impacts expected at the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  96  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  97  70  94 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                   73  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  91  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                    68  94  68  91 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                    59  92  61  91 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   72  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     74  98  74  96 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84