


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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571 FXUS64 KMAF 031801 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Medium to high rain chances (40-70%, up to 90% in the Davis Mountains and Big Bend) continue today. Rain chances decrease for the 4th of July, becoming more confined to our far eastern counties and the Davis Mountains/Big Bend. - Additional low rain chances Sunday (20-30%, up to 50% in the Davis Mountains). - Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Heavy showers and some thunderstorms have continued across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. Further development is expected this afternoon as our tropical airmass lingers on. PWATs remain well above climatological norms, with MAF`s 12Z sounding showing 1.83 in of precipitable water (for reference, the all-time daily maximum for today is 1.90 in). As a result, flash flooding will continue to be a concern through the rest of today into the evening, and the Flood Watch issued last night will continue through 06Z tonight. This pattern will begin to come to an end starting tomorrow as troughing to the west moves off to the north and east of our area. A few isolated to widely scattered showers can still be anticipated in the Davis Mountains, Eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos, but chances are overall quite a bit lower than in previous days and look to drop off pretty quickly after sunset (10-40%, with the highest chances in/around the Davis Mountains). In other words, many locations should stay rain-free (albeit muggy) for 4th of July festivities tomorrow night! Otherwise, more seasonable temperatures are expected tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s expected for most and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The Long Term period looks a good deal quieter than the Short Term Period overall. Ridging begins to move into the region from the west Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s for most locations. Even though atmospheric moisture will remain anomalously high, this ridge should keep precipitation chances near zero pretty much everywhere, with only some slight chances (10-20%) near/in the Davis Mountains. By Sunday, an inverted trough off of the east coast of Texas could initiate a few additional showers and thunderstorms in our area, though chances for this also remain fairly low (20-30% for most locations, up to 50% in the Davis Mountains). On the flip side, increased cloud cover and rain chances will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Sunday versus Saturday. Additional rain chances appear in the higher terrain of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday, mainly the product of upslope flow (20-40%). After that, the aforementioned ridge pretty much squashes any further chances through the extended, save perhaps in the Davis Mountains. Atmospheric moisture will also be on the decline through the extended, while temperatures begin to climb back towards/above seasonal averages. Sprang && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions generally forecast for most sites, though MAF should remain MVFR for the next couple of hours (with temporary drops to IFR due to ongoing showers). Additional temporary drops to MVFR can be expected at other sites due to ongoing showers across the area (especially at INK and HOB, where showers have had a history of being heavier). Off-and-on showers will continue through the afternoon into the evening before clearing up later tonight. Cloud cover will also begin to gradually decrease at western sites tonight, though MVFR conditions are expected to redevelop at MAF late tonight through tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 92 72 95 / 40 20 10 10 Carlsbad 70 93 70 97 / 20 10 0 0 Dryden 72 92 72 95 / 30 30 10 10 Fort Stockton 71 92 71 96 / 20 20 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 66 86 68 90 / 30 10 0 0 Hobbs 68 92 68 94 / 50 10 0 0 Marfa 65 84 63 90 / 30 30 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 72 94 72 96 / 30 10 0 10 Odessa 70 93 71 94 / 30 10 0 0 Wink 70 94 70 97 / 20 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry- Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...13