Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 032339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will mostly be out of the east to northeast through the next
24 hours. Low ceilings are expected to redevelop and move across
the area beginning this evening and will likely remain across
parts of the area through the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Latest mesoanalysis/sfc obs/area radars show the cold front down in
the lwr Trans Pecos, w/a line of convection extending along the
front into central Texas.  The front was much stronger/faster than
previously anticipated, playing hob w/afternoon temperatures, as
post-frontal stratus has been slow to dissipate.  Fortunately,
stratus redevelopment looks likely overnight, which will mitigate
lows from dropping too far.  Unfortunately, convection did not much
materialize in our area as the front moved south.

CAA will continue overnight, banking colder air up against the
higher terrain Saturday, yielding unseasonably cool temperatures,
especially over the upper Colorado Rvr valley.  This should be the
coldest day this forecast.  Sat afternoon, sfc flow will veer to the
east, then back to return flow by sunset.  This will usher in Gulf
moisture, at least thru the eastern half of the CWA, just in time
for a shortwave moving thru the region, for a chance of convection
east.  This looks to be the best chance for rain this forecast,
w/POPs tapering off to the east rather quickly Sat night as the
shortwave moves into central Texas.

Meanwhile, an upper closed system will dig out of the PacNW and move
south just off the west coast, increasing SW flow over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  Westerly sfc flow will increase Mon, and
begin scouring moisture into central Texas.  W/return flow resuming
Sun, temps should warm back to near-normal, but soar to well-above
normal Mon afternoon as downsloping winds kick in.  Temps should
stay above-normal thru at least Thu, when things start getting
sketchy.  Wed or so, long-range models begin moving the west coast
trough onshore around the CA/Baja border.  The GFS is fastest,
bringing the trough to the Texas Panhandle by 00Z Fri.  The ECMWF
lags at the UT/AZ border, whereas the Canadian hangs back over
SoCal.  So, chances of rain Thu/Fri are uncertain at best, and
isolated at best, if at all.  Instability is nil then, so we`ll keep
thunder out of the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  51  46  74 /  30  60  20  20
Carlsbad                       45  66  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  65  54  75 /  40  50  20  10
Fort Stockton                  46  63  52  79 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  58  44  74 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          44  75  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           40  54  47  75 /  30  50  10  10
Odessa                         40  54  48  76 /  30  40  10  10
Wink                           43  62  47  80 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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