128
FXUS64 KMAF 222316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

- Quiet with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal this
  afternoon. A weak cold front arrives on Sunday, decreasing high
  temperatures to 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the first
  half of next week.

- A storm system brings rain chances to the area by the middle to end
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Warm, dry, and somewhat windy is what can be expected through the
remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures climb well into the 80s and
even low 90s for the majority of the region with the aid of a
breezy, downsloping, west wind. Plentiful sunshine without a cloud
in sight also assists these warm temperatures. While the west winds
lessen tonight, they will help keep temperatures mild into Sunday
morning. Widespread upper 40s to lower 50s start the day. A weak
cold front enters the region from the north during the morning hours
and clears most of the area by the afternoon. While a cooler
northeast wind overspreads portions of the area, temperatures change
a relatively small amount. Afternoon high temperatures decrease into
the lower 70s to mid 80s or 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Saturday for
most. This is a welcomed relatively warm and pleasant weekend across
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas given recent weeks.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

The long term begins with an upper level trough departing to our
northeast and the return of zonal flow within a broad upper ridge.
Temperatures remain above normal early next week, with highs mainly
in the 80s and a few spots in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio
Grande hitting the 90s.

Quiet weather hangs around through the first part of the week, until
a storm system makes its approach on Wednesday. Ensemble models,
such as the EPS and the GEFS, are pointing to an upper level trough
becoming negatively tilted as it tracks from northwestern Mexico
toward our area. However, deterministic models are showing a bit of
variance in regards to the exact track of this system. The GFS keeps
the upper low to our north, near the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles,
while the ECMWF digs the low down into Central Texas. In either
case, rain chances range anywhere from low (20%) to medium (65%)
across our area between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday night.
Though wind shear looks to be plentiful, sufficient instability
remains of question, therefore potential for severe weather will
require monitoring. Details are to be ironed out as we go along.
With any luck, we may finally see some relief from the dry
conditions we`ve seen thus far! Otherwise, the cold front associated
with this system drops highs back into the 70s on Thursday before
the 80s and 90s return heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail for most this evening. The exception is CNM
where blowing dust is reducing visibility to between MVFR and IFR.
This should subside around sunset. Southwest winds continue across
much of the region tonight. Winds then gradually shift to
northerly as a cold front begins to push south through the area
during the morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

A Fire Danger Statement remains valid through this evening for
elevated fire weather concerns across the area due to very low
relative humidities, breezy winds, and very high ERC values.
Concerns diminish over the next few days as minimum RH values
increase slightly and winds stay light. Wednesday and Thursday, an
upper level system looks to bring decent moisture and rain chances
to much of the area. Hopefully we get in on some much needed rain!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               50  77  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 50  81  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   50  89  55  85 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            55  85  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           50  74  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  77  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    47  78  43  81 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     50  78  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   51  78  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     47  83  45  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91