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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231155
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Current satellite imagery shows a fetch of BKN stratus across the
Permian Basin. Ceilings have lowered to MVFR at HOB and MAF and
these low cigs are expected to persist until around 15Z at HOB and
18Z at MAF. Elsewhere, VFR is expected to continue through the
forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon at all terminals. Will preclude mention at this
time however due to uncertainty in timing and coverage. Winds veer
out of the SE and increase through this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

An active period of stormy weather is finally upon us for the next
24-36 hrs. We will begin this morning with showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau,
and Trans Pecos where a weak shrtwv in SW flow aloft is currently
arriving. As the shrtwv traverses the region, additional rainfall
will be possible for areas along and east of the I-20 corridor
around sunrise. Some locations could see 0.10"-0.25" of rainfall
this morning.

Our attention then turns to this afternoon when a secondary, and
more potent shrtwv assocd with a broad upper lvl trough over the
Intermountain West ejects over the region. Meanwhile, sfc flow will
veer out S-SE this afternoon, advecting ample low lvl moisture into
the area w/dew points increasing to 55F-60F. Latest NAMbufr
soundings indicate a largely uncapped environment by 21Z w/ML CAPE
of 2000-2500 J/kg and mid lvl lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting
some storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds
possible. High temperatures this afternoon will be warmer than
Sunday, but still expected to come in below normal, especially
across eastern portions of the region where cloud cover and moisture
will be most prevalent. As far as QPF goes, latest CAMs and HREF
probabilities indicate a bimodal precipitation distribution from N-S
this afternoon. One maxima in QPF will exist over the Texas South
Plains and N Permian Basin and the other will be across the Davis
Mtns, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, PoPs will be
highest in the aforementioned regions, especially along and south of
I-10 today. Unfortunately, it looks like the central Permian Basin
may miss out on higher rainfall amounts this afternoon and evening,
but any rainfall will be beneficial at this point. Precipitation
chances will decrease, or move east of the region by 06Z tonight.

On Tuesday, the upper lvl trough axis will slowly progress into the
Central Plains and deepen as it does so. A cold front will enter the
Permian Basin by Tuesday afternoon, cooling temperatures across our
northern counties where highs in the 70s can be expected. Further
south of the frontal boundary, high temperatures should reach the
upper 80s to near 90. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across Lea County and the Permian Basin as large
scale lift assocd with the trough axis passes overhead. In fact,
Tuesday afternoon now looks like a better opportunity for the
Permian Basin to cash in on additional rainfall, especially
for locations that miss out today.

-Salerno

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Tuesday night, an upper trough will be moving into the Central
Plains, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest
flow aloft.  At the surface, a cold front will intrude upon the
region, although this one does not look quite as vigorous as the
last.  Nevertheless, it`ll be strong enough for scattered
convection, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains, through
Wednesday morning.  Gap winds will be possible through Guadalupe
Pass, and we`ve issued a watch for this.  Overnight lows behind the
front will drop to below normal most locations.

Wednesday will be unseasonably cool as well, due to the front and
clouds in the morning.  These clouds will scatter out in the
afternoon.  Surface flow will veer to southeast Wednesday night, but
will be light.  This light flow and mostly clear skies will promote
good radiational cooling, yielding yet another night of below-normal
temperatures most locations (although a couple of degrees warmer
than Tuesday night).

Thursday, an upper-level ridge begins building in from the west,
increasing thicknesses and and raising afternoon highs to just above
normal most locations.  By Friday afternoon, most locations will be
back to respectable triple digits as the ridge strengthens over
Sonora, with Sunday looking to be the warmest day this forecast.
This will also bring critical fire weather back into play once
again.  Grids stay dry after Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  63  81  54 /  60  40  30  30
Carlsbad                 87  58  87  51 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                   81  65  93  63 /  70  30  10  10
Fort Stockton            80  62  90  58 /  70  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           82  58  83  52 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                    83  56  78  48 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                    78  49  86  47 /  60  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     82  63  86  55 /  50  30  20  20
Odessa                   82  64  85  56 /  50  30  20  20
Wink                     85  60  90  55 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24