Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Light south winds overnight
and Sunday morning will become southwest and increase to 10 to 20
mph and gusty by Sunday afternoon. Strong cold front will move
through the terminals Sunday evening, accompanied by gusty
northeast winds.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR for the next 24 hrs. Winds out of S overnight,
shifting to SW after sunrise. Gusty in the PM hrs. Cold front
stalling to north, but KHOB could see fropa end of TAF cycle.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...

.WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE
AREA...

Warm and calm weather is expected this weekend, but don`t let that
fool you because big changes are in store early next week! Not only
could we see the first widespread freeze of the Fall season, but
winter weather is looking increasingly likely beginning late Monday
and lasting through early Wednesday (highlighted in SPS).

Sfc winds have returned to the south today allowing temperatures to
quickly rebound into the 60s and 70s. After a mild night with lows
in the 50s and 60s, a much warmer day is anticipated tomorrow. An
upper level trof will begin to deepen across the western CONUS
tomorrow afternoon which will put W TX and SE NM under SW flow
aloft and push the low level thermal ridge deep into the heart of
TX. 850 hpa temps will increase to around 25-26C from SE NM into
the Permian Basin which would equate to highs in the U80s/L90s
(Record high at MAF for 10/25 is 90F). Meanwhile, the
aforementioned deepening trof will send a cold front southward.
This front is progged to reach the far NE CWA between around 21Z
and will likely hang up for a few hours allowing maximum heating
to occur south of the boundary. Models show the front plowing
through the remainder of the area after 26/00Z with gusty NE winds
(high winds at GDP) and much colder temps to follow. Some of the
northern counties could see their first freeze by Monday morning.
Low clouds and CAA will keep temperatures hovering in the 30s and
40s for most of the day on Monday and wind chills will make it
feel even colder! In fact, we could go from a record high on
Sunday to a record cold high on Monday (current forecast high is
42F).

Our attention then turns to a potential winter storm event beginning
as early as Monday night. Current model consensus is the
deepening upper trof will transition to a cutoff low over AZ/NM
late Monday night and begin to pivot ewd early Tuesday. During
this timeframe, isentropic upglide looks to commence across W TX
and SE NM and light precipitation could fall initially and
increase in intensity as a shortwave rounds the base of the upper
level low (ULL). Model sfc temperatures are below freezing along
and N of Interstate 10 for most of the morning Tuesday. However,
forecast soundings show a pronounced warm nose in the 850-700 hpa
layer which would keep precipitation types mainly ZR or IP. The
best chance of accumulating ice looks to be across the C and E
Permian Basin early Tuesday before temperatures rise above
freezing during the afternoon. By Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, the GFS brings the center of the ULL from EPZ directly
over MAF with the GDPS and ECMWF moving the low over LBB. Either
way deep lift assoc with the ULL should produce another round of
precipitation mainly FZ and IP across the Permian Basin and
possibly snow and sleet over the higher terrain of southeast New
Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains. Frozen precipitation amounts
are still in question, but right now models favor the eastern
Permian Basin for the greatest potential for ice accumulations. It
looks like the main impacts will be icing on trees, power lines,
and other elevated surfaces including bridges and overpasses. We
will begin to hone in on precipitation amounts in upcoming
forecasts.

On Wednesday, any lingering wintry precipitation should come to
an end as the ULL moves off the the NE. Temperatures will modify
to near normal through the rest of the week with dry conditions
expected.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  56  89  37 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       72  56  91  40 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         77  55  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  60  92  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 73  57  82  39 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          71  54  84  32 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          85  46  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  56  91  39 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         72  57  91  39 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           72  53  93  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12



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