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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201139
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Stratus development so far this morning has been limited, though
MAF/INK/HOB may still see broken MVFR stratus for a few hours
after issuance, thus have handled with TEMPO mention. Main concern
this forecast period is increasing potential for SH/TS, beginning
west this afternoon, and expanding areawide this evening and
tonight. Have included SH/RA mention at all terminals, though have
currently left out TS mention due to uncertainty in timing and
location. Regardless, heavy rain is likely to result in MVFR/IFR
conditions, especially tonight. Winds will remain elevated out of
the SE for most of the period, with a shift to the NW possible at
HOB/CNM after 21/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase through tonight areawide, followed by a
cold front and cooler temperatures Friday and this weekend.  An
upper trough translating eastward over the Great Basin will combine
with the remnants of a tropical system from the Pacific, both of
which will move over the region tonight, Friday and perhaps
lingering over the area Saturday.  This will allow for widespread
showers and thunderstorms today through Friday, with some of the
showers and storms capable of producing heavy rainfall due to
tropical type downpours, and especially since PWats will rise to
around 2 inches through tonight and at least Friday.  Even though we
expect to see localized flash flooding tonight, and Friday when a
cold front will move into the area and provide a low level focus,
there is still too much variability amongst current model progs in
the timing and location of heavy rainfall to prevent the issuance of
a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  Please stay tuned as one may be
in the offing within the next 12 hours or so.

Behind the mentioned cold front, strong northeast gap winds could
occur in Guadalupe Pass as early as Friday evening, lasting until
Saturday morning.  Will hold off on issuance of a High Wind Watch
there as the timing of the front is in question, not to mention how
quickly the surface ridge builds southward behind the front.  It
does appear rain chances will begin to wind down Saturday and after
as the upper trough begins to pull away, and a warming trend sets in
under a weak upper ridge initially, then increasing westerly flow
aloft to the south of a deepening upper trough over the CONUS next
week.  Temperatures will drop below normal Friday in most locations
and stay that way until Sunday when they approach normal levels
again.  Readings will then jump above normal Monday and Tuesday
before another cold front possibly cools us down Wednesday and
Thursday, along with another chance of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  70  77  61 /  30  70  70  50
Carlsbad                       81  65  78  61 /  60  70  20  20
Dryden                         88  71  86  69 /  40  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  83  69  81  61 /  40  60  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 74  61  72  55 /  60  60  20  20
Hobbs                          79  66  73  57 /  40  80  40  20
Marfa                          76  56  78  52 /  50  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           84  69  79  61 /  40  70  60  30
Odessa                         83  70  78  60 /  40  70  50  30
Wink                           84  69  80  61 /  40  60  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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