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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281037
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Not much to write home about in the short term.  WV imagery shows
the upper ridge parked off the coast of Baja del Sur, leaving
northwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Models increase thicknesses  today over yesterday, increasing highs
by a couple of degrees most locations.  NBM has been running a bit
on the cool side the past couple of days, and latest models argue
for staying a degree or so above it.  Convection was sparse at best
yesterday, and looks even more isolated today, w/CAMs showing a few
cells developing invof the Davis Mountains this afternoon.

Tonight, a 35+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping overnight lows
once again above normal.

Friday, flow aloft transitions to southwest as the next trough makes
landfall on the west coast.  Despite this, thicknesses come down a
little, shaving a degree or so off today`s highs, and we`ll remain
above NBM nevertheless.  While afternoon convection will remain
isolated, upslope flow/CAMs shows it a little more widespread, from
the Guadalupes to the Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Saturday will start with a strong trough extending down the West
Coast with a ridge extending up from Mexico across TX and the SE
States.  The trough will slowly progress eastward Sunday and Monday
but the ridge will not begin to move east until Tuesday when the
trough moves onto the plains. A secondary portion of the trough will
swing across the plains Wednesday and pass off to the east Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday through
Tuesday which is a little cooler than have been but still a bit
above normal for this time of year. A cold front blows into the area
late Wednesday and passes through the region overnight.  Somewhat
cooler temperatures on Thursday. Lows mainly in the 60s.

The good news is have showers and storms in the forecast each day.
Have decent moisture in place and a few shortwaves expected to track
across the area will help.  The best chance for precip looks to be
over the mountains and surround plains Saturday and Monday with pops
generally dropping as you move east. Sunday and again Tuesday
through Thursday pops more equally spread across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, w/little to no
chance of convection. Modest return flow is expected. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by noon or shortly
thereafer.  A 35+kt LLJ overnight will keep winds elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  70  94  68 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 97  64  96  66 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                   94  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  69  96  68 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  65  89  64 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    93  66  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    92  59  91  60 /  10  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     94  70  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   95  71  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     98  69  98  69 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44