Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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459 FXUS63 KDLH 051754 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1254 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers will be exiting to the west through the morning - Another round of showers and storms will be possible this afternoon. Some storms may be severe with hail up to 1" in diameter and damaging winds of 60 mph. - Continued off and on chances of showers through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Current conditions: Showers are exiting to the east this morning as a cold front moves into western WI. Browsing through some of the derived rain totals the majority of the region saw 1-2 inches with a few spots slightly higher due to brief thunderstorms. Hydro gauges do show a few jumps in response to this rains. Primarily through the St. Croix up into the Nemadji. We`ve manage to scrounge up a few reports of some very minor flooding on roadways near the Nemadji. We are going to keep the Flood Watch going through the early morning hours as we collect more reports, but I expect that we should be able to start trimming away if not completely expire the product before noon. Today: Active weather doesn`t stop for today. An upper level wave will be moving across the region today providing another round of showers and storms. Lack of a boundary for storms to fire off of with this system will keep the activity more scattered in nature. Diurnal heating will see some recovery in instability today as highs climb into the low 70s. There should be enough residual moisture around to allow for MLCAPEs of a could hundred J/kg. Bulk shear is a little lacking with low speeds of around 20 kts. Regardless, cooling temperatures aloft will see favorable mid and low level lapse rates for storms to fester in. Unidirectional westerly winds also lend itself to some increased damaging wind threat. A few low topped supercells could also produce some hail up to 1" in diameter. SPC has the vast majority of the region highlighted in a marginal threat (1 out of 5). Look for these showers and storms to populate in the afternoon. Additionally, the scattered nature of these showers make it difficult to judge which areas may see flooding impacts. But by in large rain totals will be on the lower side with the HREF LPMM highlighting a few areas seeing up to an inch of rain. Thursday: Noticeably cooler temps are expected for Thursday as northwesterly flow brings our highs down into the upper 50s and low 60s. A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to some gusty winds close to 30 mph. Diurnally driven cumulus from the cyclonic flow aloft will also generate some isolated showers. Lack of instability in the forecast will keep thunderstorms chances low (less then 10%). Into the Weekend and early next week: Temperatures return to normal for Friday and into the weekend. Upper level ridging out west keeps cyclonic flow aloft allowing for continued rain chances (primarily in the afternoon) through the weekend. At this time there are no signals for severe storms or flooding concerns. High pressure and drier conditions briefly appear on Monday. Beyond Monday there is not a good consensus among the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance. For now, we are carrying 20% PoPs for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period with deteriorating conditions heading into Thursday morning as MVFR clouds move into the region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Given the nature of the expected activity, have kept with VCTS/VCSH with this update and will need to monitor for any potential TEMPOs or prevailing updates. Overall conditions are expected to remain VFR, but a brief dip in visibilities during a stronger downpour will be possible. Briefly gusty winds will be possible as well in storms. This activity diminishes this evening, but another chance for light showers will arrive for the early morning hours and into Thursday. Winds will gust to around 20 to 25 knots this afternoon before diminishing a bit overnight and then becoming gusty again around sunrise Thursday. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Showers are moving across western Lake Superior this morning and are expected to exit by late morning. It`s a bit hard to get a good read on the fog out over the Lake as upper level clouds mask the low feature. West winds should be pushing the fog away from the near shore but webcams haven`t been too much help this morning either. For now, we have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 9AM. This afternoon will see additional showers and storms populate. Some of these storms may be severe with hail up to 1" in diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph. This activity is expected to wane as the sun goes down. Westerly winds increase on Thursday and may be hazardous to small vessels. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...BJH MARINE...Britt