Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181441
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
941 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Continued the fog along the northshore from DLH to TWM through 16z
and tapered it off by 18z. also made some changes to the cloud
cover and increasing cloud trends and latest model forecasts. rest
of fcst unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

High pressure was over much of the Northland early this morning
which has led to mostly clear skies, light winds and areas of fog.
The surface high will quickly move east this morning with southerly
flow developing ahead of a trough of low pressure and cold front
that were still well west over the Northern Plains early this
morning. The fog and associated stratus will lift from west to east
this morning as the gradient tightens and winds respond. Continued
warm air advection today will lead to a warmer day with highs in the
seventies for most areas but also will cause clouds to increase. The
southerly wind will keep temperatures cooler along the North Shore.
The wind will back to easterly over the lake through the afternoon
with a lake breeze making it into the Twin Ports area as well. Most
of the day will be dry, but there could be some showers or storms
that develop later this afternoon from the Walker area to Crane Lake
and northwest.

The chance for showers and storms will then increase
over the rest of the Northland this evening as the cold front moves
into central to eastern Minnesota by 06Z. Surface dewpoints will
rise into the upper fifties to around sixty this evening and greater
instability will develop. Increasing lower to mid level winds will
create increasing deep layer shear. Some strong to possibly severe
storms will be possible this evening over portions of the Northland.
Much of the guidance is in agreement moving the storms through
fairly quickly. Most of the Northland will be dry by late tonight
with the chance for showers/storms shifting south and east.

Monday will be dry for most areas with breezy westerly winds
occurring. High temperatures will be in the upper sixties to lower
seventies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Wet is the weather word for the extended period.

The first part of the extended will be dry with surface high
pressure and a westerly upper flow. That all will change for the
remainder of the forecast period. Another in a series of long
wave trofs will dig into the western U. S. With the falling
heights, low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies. By
Wednesday the surface low will be in the Central Plains with a
warm front across MN and WI. This set up will put the Northland
on the north side of the front which will give us a chance of
rain. The low is forecast to slide south of the Northland which
will keep the forecast area in cool and wet easterly flow. The
upper low closes off quickly and slowly moves inland and by the
weekend becomes negatively tilted. With this scenario we can
expect periods of rain and storms as the resulting surface low
pressure and baroclinic zone sets up across the midwest. The
extended models all show the same general wet pattern. With many
days of gulf moisture surging northward over the baroclinic zone,
there could be some very high precipitation totals, but depends on
where the warm front sets up. The ECMWF is most liberal with the
water totals with some 3 to 5 inch totals while the GFS has the
same numbers, only farther south over southern MN and central WI.
In any case, this system and the rainfall bears watching for
flooding potential this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

An area of high pressure will move off today with southerly winds
increasing ahead of a cold front and trough of low pressure.
Areas of fog and stratus will continue early this morning over far
northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin but should lift for
most areas between 13Z-14Z as winds start to increase. Clouds will
be on the increase through the day remaining VFR. A cold front
will move into the region tonight and showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along it. Some of the storms could be strong to
possibly severe.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  56  71  51 /  10  50  10   0
INL  75  52  68  48 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  78  53  72  49 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  76  57  72  49 /  10  30  10   0
ASX  78  59  74  52 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Melde



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