Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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811
FXUS63 KDLH 040003 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
603 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS DEPICTED ON RADAR
PUSHING NW MINNESOTA. THE GRAND  FORK AIRPORT REPORTS A PERIOD OF
BELOW 1SM VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH...WITH A
QUICK FEW TENTHS TO HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. A CURRENT SPEED-
TRACK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWS THE ARRIVAL TIME INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES...FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO ROUGHLY BRAINERD
IN THE 9PM TO 10PM WINDOW...REACHING LOCATIONS FROM HIBBING TO
DULUTH AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRACK AND INCREASED LIKELY
WORDING TO INCLUDE SNOW AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

OUR STRONG WINTER STORM IS NOW WELL OFF TO THE EAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS HAS CAUSED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TODAY...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING...AND WE SHOULD BE DOWN TO MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND THIS DIMINISHING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE.  THE DRY AIR THAT HAS KIND OF SHUT DOWN OUR LAKE
EFFECTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...SO THE CLEAR SKIES
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REALLY DROP...AND HAVE MIN TEMPS FROM
5 BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE DEPENDING ON THE CLOUDS.  THERE IS AN
INTERESTING LITTLE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A WEAK BAND OF LIGHT SNOW.
THIS BAND OF SNOW TO DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND
SHOULD BRING A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
ON THURSDAY. MAIN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW STRONG THE WAVE WILL
BE...AND ITS EXACT TRACK. FOR NOW HAVE REALLY RAISED POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO PULL THAT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AS THE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT NAM12
AND OTHER HI RES MODEL RUNS. MOST LOWER RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE REALLY BLURRING THIS FEATURE OUT...BUT SOME OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON IT AND FEEL CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND PERHAPS EVEN CATEGORICAL IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY TO BE MODERATED BY THE
CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA 00Z FRIDAY... CREATING A SHORT-LIVED BREAK OF PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN CANADIAN DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LONGWAVE TROF AXIS STRETCHING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD... BUT THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL NW
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LES CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR... AND ANOTHER RATHER MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE
STACKED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... AND WILL BRING THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF/GFS/DGEX
HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM TRACK CONSIDERING IT IS
DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW... ANOTHER
ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH A 500MB COLD CORE MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA 00Z TUESDAY AND KEEPING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN -20C
850MB TEMPS THROUGH 00Z THURS. THIS WILL DIP US BELOW CLIMOTOLOGICAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEK... AND WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER AROUND OR JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO
THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS...THE CPC`S LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK KEEPS
THE NORTHLAND IN THE AVERAGE TO COOL SLOT WITH POSSIBILITIES OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A CLIPPER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFR VISBY WITH SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING IN...HOWEVER STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT TIMING AND HOW
WIDESPREAD LIFR VISBY WILL BE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHYR...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT
AT ALL SITES WHICH SHOULD SCATTER CLOUDS OUT. KHYR WILL HOLD ONTO
LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25   5  23 /  50  60   0  20
INL   3  19   1  20 /  60  50   0  30
BRD   7  24   5  23 /  40  40   0  40
HYR   2  25   1  22 /  10  50  10  20
ASX   4  26   6  23 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL



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