Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270907
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

At 4 AM, it was dry across the CWA, with mainly high clouds
streaming in from the south and west. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 40s to the lower 50s for much of the area. Areas of dense
fog persisted across the region, especially close to Lake
Superior, where there was a persistent moist marine layer.

The main focus for today through Saturday will be resolving the
various precipitation threats for the Northland. Today will be
fairly quiet initially, but the potential for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from the south as the day wears on. A
shortwave lifting north through the plains today will result in an
increase in showers and storms. The chance of precipitation will
vary between likely and scattered coverage. Highs today will be in
the 70s, but it will once again be cooler near the lake.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight, as
the main upper level low and trough lifts into the western Great
Lakes region. That means an increase in showers and storms as the
night wears on, with numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Moisture will spread in from the south, generating the
fairly decent precipitation amounts. Highs should generally be in
the 70s, but clouds and precipitation could keep temperatures a
bit lower in spots.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The extended highlights include the passage of a cold front early
in the period, then upper level ridging followed by another
extensive upper low.

By Sunday Night the current surface low over the southern and
central Plains will be right over the northland and with the
greatest instability and lift forecast over northwestern
Wisconsin. This will continue the extensive rain and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday morning with possible residual showers
lingering Sunday afternoon. The low will move north into Ontario
followed by a surface high so Memorial Day will be dry and sunny.

However, that will be short-lived as the upper air pattern will
again feature a large long wave trof currently over British
Columbia digging into the western U. S. Monday night and closing
off over the High Plains by Tuesday. By Wednesday the resulting
surface low will be across the Dakotas and it will move across
Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR at the start of the forecast, but there will be some stratus
and patchy fog in vicinity of DLH. Some fog is possible at KDLH
and KHIB early this morning. Timing the onset of the showers and
thunderstorms is low as is the confidence as models disagree on
the initiation. Began with VCSH in the late morning at BRD/HYR
and into the afternoon elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread northward into the region late in the afternoon evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  51  64  50 /  60  60  70  60
INL  75  56  71  52 /  50  60  60  50
BRD  70  56  72  54 /  60  50  60  60
HYR  74  58  74  56 /  60  70  80  60
ASX  63  50  69  52 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC


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