Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271745 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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