Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 221142
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017
.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
Radar loop suggests the cold front to be on track for passage at AUS
by 12z, DRT by 13z, and SAT/SSF between 1330 and 14Z. Some light ifr
cigs are showing up in higher terrain areas, but its looking more
like mainly a mvfr day today. Gusts to 25 knots should be common for
much of the day with it taking up to a two-hour delay between fropa
and the higher gusts to arrive. Vfr skies should build into Central
TX by around 22Z and closer to 00-01Z elsewhere. Later updates may
need to consider a return of some higher gusts along I-35 after 16Z
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Low clouds continue to develop across much of the area ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front is currently nearing Burnet County
and will begin to push into the CWA in the next couple of hours.
Behind the front, low-level moisture remains high and we should see
clouds remain in place for most of the day before drier air moves
into the region this evening. A very thin line of broken showers can
be seen on area radars along the frontal boundary. This activity
should continue as the front moves into the CWA as a 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet provides enough focused lift along the boundary for the
forced convection to continue. Am not expecting any thunder from
this activity as all upward motions will remain below a very stout
CAP above 850 mb. Will continue 20-30 PoPs before 18z to account for
the expected scattered shower activity. Everything should be south
and east of the area this afternoon as the front pushes away.
With the expected cloud cover today and breezy northerly winds behind
the front, many locations will struggle to get out of the 60s this
afternoon. The air behind the front is cool for April as current
readings are in the middle 50s to our north. With lighter winds and
clearing skies tonight, lows will bottom out in the 40s and 50s with
the colder temperatures in the Hill Country. Sunday will be
absolutely perfect if you enjoy sunny skies, light winds, and highs
in the 70s.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Southerly flow will return on Sunday which will begin a warm up
across the region. The warm up should be a quick one as models are
progging 850 temps to increase by about 10 C between Monday and
Wednesday. There will not be ridging aloft to help this warming, but
southwest flow off the higher terrain will allow for this warming.
The higher 850 temps will translate to surface highs by
Wednesday/Thursday being in the 90s for most of the area with near
100 degrees possible for the southwestern CWA. Temperatures will
slightly cool for the end of the long-term forecast as the next
system affects the region. In addition to the slightly cooler temps,
there will be a 20-30 percent chance of storms with this activity.
The timing of the system remains uncertain as differences remains
within the medium-range guidance and some changes can be expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 69 51 75 50 81 / 30 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 49 74 47 80 / 30 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 49 75 47 81 / 30 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 66 45 72 47 79 / 10 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 75 51 77 54 85 / 20 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 67 48 73 48 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 75 48 77 48 82 / 20 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 71 49 74 47 80 / 30 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 49 73 49 80 / 20 - 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 51 76 50 81 / 20 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 74 52 76 50 81 / 20 0 0 0 0