Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 181144 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR continues to prevail across the entire region with near calm
winds this morning. FEW/SCT250 cirrus from the west will overspread
the area through the day as winds increase from the southeast and
south near 10 knots. KDRT will have higher winds/gusts near 15 to 20
knots, respectively.

VFR will prevail into the evening hours but low-level moisture is
expected to increase through early Thursday morning. Models are in
disagreement on moisture return with GFS less and NAM greater.
Typically, NAM has performed better in resolving low-level moisture
via soundings and time series output. Have weighted TAFs towards the
NAM solution and introduced MVFR ceilings for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. Will
need to watch trends for KDRT as well if a BKN group is needed as a
SCT015 is currently forecast Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed northwesterly flow over Texas
between a trough to the east and ridge to the west. At the surface,
the pressure gradient was weak and winds were light and variable
across our CWA. The upper level ridge will move across Texas during
the next 24 hours. The low level flow will become southeasterly
increasing moisture in the boundary layer. Subsidence will remain
strong enough to keep the weather dry today and tonight. Thursday an
upper level trough will move in from the west and combined with the
deeper moisture over the eastern half of our area may produce some
showers and thunderstorms. Chances for rain will be best over the
southeastern counties and reach as far as the Hill Country and I-37.
The best chances for rain will be during the afternoon Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level trough will continue to rotate through Texas Thursday
night through Saturday. We will continue to see low chances for
showers and thunderstorms with better chances during the day Friday
over the eastern half of our CWA. Saturday night and Sunday a cold
front will move from North Texas through our CWA. This front will
bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms to most of the
area. Breezy northerly winds behind the front will bring cooler,
drier air. Northerly flow will continue through the end of the
period keeping the weather dry. Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  60  83  65  82 /   0   0  30  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  58  83  65  82 /   0   0  30  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  59  83  66  82 /   0   0  30  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            81  56  80  63  79 /   0   0  20  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  59  80  66  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  58  82  64  80 /   0   0  20  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             83  57  84  67  84 /   0   0  10  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  59  83  65  82 /   0   0  30  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  60  85  65  84 /   0   0  30  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  60  83  68  83 /   0   0  20  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           85  61  83  68  84 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...05


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