Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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379
FXUS64 KEWX 160540
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
06Z Aviation Update Below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A broken line of TSRAs located over the Hill Country, roughly between
ERV and DRT, will continue northeast over the next hour or two. Most
guidance indicates this convection weakening and dissipating before
reaching the I-35 corridor TAF sites. -RA over DRT will also come to
an end over the next hour or two. Otherwise, another round of MVFR
stratus developing overnight along the escarpment edge and into the
Hill Country, including SAT and AUS. Can`t rule out some patchy IFR
stratus across portions of the Hill Country. The stratus will mix out
15Z-17Z with VFR conditions and southeast winds gusting at times to
around 20 kts through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

UPDATE... /INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY WRN HILL COUNTRY/

A shortwave lifting out of the higher terrain of Big Bend/Nrn Mexico
in the evening has supplied lift for convection long enough to take
advantage of the nocturnal low level winds in the overnight hours.
The broken convective line of storms that passed through DRT in the
evening is peaking in intensity over Real/Nrn Uvalde Counties and
should propagate the eastern extent of convection east to near a
Sabinal to Comfort to Llano line. Rain chances were raised to likely
over parts of the Wrn Hill Country, but are tapered off dramatically
east of the line mentioned above. Inflow winds should drop off
significantly by around 09Z which should lead to a quick demise of
the convection. Slow eastward progression means Wrn Kerr/Bandera
Counties, Nrn Uvalde County, and much of Real County has a chance to
see a 2 inch downpour. Outside of this area more isolated rainfall
totals of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected across the rest of the western
counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  78 101  77 101 /   0  -   -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  77 100  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  77 101  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            96  75  97  74  97 /   0  -   -   -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  80 102  78 102 /  10  10  10  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  77  98  76  99 /   0  -   -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport            101  76 103  75 103 /  -   10  10  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  77 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  78 100  76  99 /  10  -   10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  78 101  77 101 /  -   -   10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           99  78 100  77 100 /  -   -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks



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