Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 070936
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
336 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough across most of
the country. The trough axis extended from Minnesota to southern
California. The flow over Texas was from the south-southwest. This
flow was bringing moisture across Mexico from the Pacific. At the
surface, winds across our CWA were generally from the northeast.
Temperatures ranged from the middle 30s to around 40 and dew points
at most stations were within two degrees of the temperature. So far,
we have only had a few reports of mixed precipitation. The 00Z DRT
sounding showed the temperature dipping slightly below 0C at around
3800 ft and then warmer again up to near 8700 ft with winds in this
layer from the southeast. The profile is also mostly saturated up to
about 600 mb. This warm layer has been keeping precipitation all rain
across most of our CWA. Models show 850 mb winds eventually turning
to the northeast overnight eroding that elevated warm layer across
our northern area. The boundary layer will stay warm, so we expect a
mix of rain and snow across the north and west until around noon
today. With warm surface temperatures we don`t expect any
accumulation or impacts. Precipitation should become all rain during
the afternoon with some daytime warming of the low levels. Tonight
the upper level trough axis will swing through Central Texas pushing
the precipitation southward. Precipitation will come to an end from
north to south overnight. There will still be a chance for some mixed
rain and snow across the southwestern counties before precipitation
comes to an end Friday morning. We don`t expect any impacts for this
area. Friday morning will bring freezing temperatures across nearly
all of the CWA. Only southern Frio and most of Dimmit will be above
freezing. We will likely issue a freeze warning for most of the area
that has not already seen a freeze this season.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The upper trough will move away to the east over the weekend and the
upper flow will switch to northerly and then northwesterly. This will
bring dry weather back to the region. An upper ridge will build over
the west and push into West Texas becoming the dominant feature for
the rest of the period. The entire long term will be dry.
Temperatures will increase through Monday. Tuesday a weak cold front
will back in from the northeast bringing temperatures back down a few
degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              47  29  55  36  65 /  60  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  47  30  54  32  65 /  70  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     47  30  55  34  66 /  90  40   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            45  25  53  32  62 /  40  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           45  31  54  33  64 /  80  40   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        46  28  54  33  64 /  50  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             48  28  57  31  68 /  90  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        47  29  56  34  65 /  80  30   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   47  31  51  33  63 /  80  30   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       48  32  56  37  67 /  90  40   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           47  32  55  35  66 /  90  50   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...05



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