Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 071800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  34   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  35   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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