Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191142
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
642 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

A cold front will continue east clearing the Northland this
morning. There has been an isolated shower or two that pops up
from time to time over northeast Minnesota but think the next few
hours will be dry. An area of FGEN was producing showers over
central and northern portions of South Dakota and this will
translate east impacting our southern zones today. We added a
chance for showers from the Brainerd Lakes region east into
northern Wisconsin. The Brainerd Lakes should see the showers move
east later this morning with a dry afternoon. We limited the
mention to just chance at this time, but some of the high
resolution models show the showers more widespread and later
updates may have to increase. Highs today will be in the upper
sixties to lower seventies. Winds will be increasing out of the
west as well today and they will be quite gusty, especially over
the northern half of the Northland.

Weak high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies tonight with
lows into the forties with a few upper thirties possible.

Clouds will be on the increase on Tuesday with increasing warm air
advection and FGEN. We kept the forecast dry for now but there are
some indications some afternoon showers may form. Highs will be in
the upper sixties to lower seventies for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

There is not much change from last night`s model runs except that
they are in better agreement with the baroclinic zone and
heaviest rain area.

The west coast long wave trof will be the focus for our weather the
next 7 days. By Wednesday morning the trough and its closed low
will be over the Pacific Coast. The southwest flow will increase
the thermal ridge over the Plains with a surface low over the
Central Plains and a warm front across the upper midwest. Still
some differences on the location of this front, but consensus is
northern Iowa or southern MN and WI. With this scenario brought
the chances of rain into southern areas late Tuesday night and
spread the rain chances northward Wednesday. Looks like there may
a respite from the rain on Thursday with height rises and surface
ridging. However this drier period will be short-lived as the
upper trough moves farther inland. By Saturday the upper level
closed circulation will be over the High Plains and by Sunday the
upper trough will be moving over the western Great Lakes. This
will put much of the forecast area in rain chances through the
period. The models are hinting at another brief respite from the
rain on Friday with a Canadian high pressure building into
northern MN. But this will be short-lived as yet another in a
series of lee troughs makes its way toward the forecast area. By
the time this forecast period is over we could be measuring inches
of rain, especially in southern areas, including northwest WI.
However, much depends on where the fronts and subsequent
baroclinic zones set up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

VFR conditions will previal thorugh the forecast period.
southwest winds will become gusty to 30 kts today..then decrease
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  49  72  51 /  10   0  10  10
INL  69  46  69  45 /  10   0  10  10
BRD  73  46  71  52 /  20  10  10  20
HYR  73  46  72  49 /  30   0  10  20
ASX  73  51  72  51 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     tonight for LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC



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