Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 282111
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Mainly snow continues across parts of east central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin this morning associated with a fairly weak low
pressure system over Iowa. Mild temperatures in place have
limited accumulation on roads, and rain has mixed in at times
across parts of northwest Wisconsin when precipitation intensity
was light. However, this evening as more intense bands of precip
move across NW Wisconsin, precipitation will fall as mainly snow.
Another 1-3 inches of snowfall is possible in northwest Wisconsin
through the evening hours, with the best chances in the counties
along the south shore of Lake Superior where northeast winds at
low levels are likely to cause low level convergence and perhaps a
bit of lake effect enhancement as colder air moves in from the
north. Otherwise partially clearing skies across far northern
Minnesota tonight with lows falling to near zero up the Gunflint
trail, single digits north of the Iron Range, and teens to low 20s
along Highway 2 and farther south.

A brief period of partly sunny skies tomorrow morning before
clouds increase again from west to east in the afternoon
associated with a very weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded in
the northwest flow in the wake of the main low exiting towards
the lower Great Lakes. A chance for snow in north-central
Minnesota in the afternoon, but little if any snowfall
accumulation expected. Highs in the mid 20s to low 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

For the extended forecast period, there will be only small
shortwaves affect the forecast area through the beginning of next
week. The first shortwave will affect the region Wednesday night and
early Thursday morning.  Only light snow will be possible across
portions of the forecast region during the night time.  With much
colder air flowing over the lake, there will be some snow showers
along the snow belt along the south shore of Lake Superior late
Wednesday night through Thursday night.   As indicated by the
previous shift, accumulations should not be significant since winds
will not be favorable for a longer event.  The winds will switch
around Thursday evening ending the snow showers.   High pressure
will build into the rest of the forecast region pulling in colder
but near-normal air for the rest of the work week.  Highs will be in
the 20s Thursday and Friday.  Lows Wednesday night in the single
figures above and below zero and in the teens Thursday night.

As the high pressure moves east, a southerly flow will develop over
the weekend pushing in much warmer air.  Highs will be int he 40s
over the weekend.  Another shortwave will move through the region
Saturday night and Sunday brining a chance for rain.  Another
shortwave will affect the region monday and monday night brining a
possibility of rain during the day Monday and snow or a rain/snow
mixture monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Low pressure was centered along the Iowa and Nebraska border early
this morning with in inverted trough and frontal boundary
extending well north into far eastern Minnesota and far western
Wisconsin. Areas of light snow will be possible north and west of
the frontal boundary over northeast Minnesota with rain or a mix
rain, snow, or light freezing rain over northwest Wisconsin. The
precipitation will decrease in coverage this afternoon into
tonight from west to east as the low and front move further north
and east. Much of the guidance suggests MVFR and IFR ceilings
will increase over most of the area. However, VFR conditions will
become more widespread over far northern Minnesota later this
afternoon into tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  28  10  24 /  60  10  10  10
INL   3  24   4  17 /   0  20  10  10
BRD  21  30  13  27 /  20  20  10  10
HYR  22  30  14  29 /  50  30  10  10
ASX  21  28  14  28 / 100  60  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Melde



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