Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291842 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
142 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM  CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED TO GREATLY REDUCE PROB OF PRECIP OVR MOST OF NERN MN. WITH
FROPA...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE IN WI. VERY LITTLE RADAR RETURNS
OVR THE ARROWHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE PWATS OF OVER AN INCH IN THE
STRONG FGEN AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MEAN THAT MORE RAIN AND
STORMS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS LINGER A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO 2 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND SE FLOW WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SO FROST IS
LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LIKELY HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST...AND IN RETURN SUPPRESS THE
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OR FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS
INDICATED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE AN INGREDIENT
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER CONFINED TO
THE KHYR AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ACROSS NE MINNESOTA THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  57  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  35  55  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  60  37  63 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  43  59  30  64 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  42  55  32  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







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