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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140151 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

FAST-MOVING AND RATHER STRONG S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE MN/ND/ON/MB BORDER REGION AT 8 PM WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE RATHER RAPID AND STEADY ESEWD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE..THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER MN/WI IS SIMPLY TOO FAR REMOVED FROM SATURATION IN
THE LOWER/MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS LET
ALONE ANY PRECIP. WHERE MORE FOCUSED ASCENT EXISTS NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER..A FAIRLY DECENT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DRYDEN/SIOUX LOOKOUT IN ONTARIO WHICH
IS DEPICTED QUITE NICELY ON CANADIAN RADAR THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER..INITIAL PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FGEN SIGNAL WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER..WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP AREA JUST
BRUSHING ACROSS AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT
4-6 HOURS. KINL 00Z SOUNDING ALSO IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS UNTIL EVAPORATIONAL/DIABATIC COOLING
RESULT IN A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE..THE DULUTH CWA WILL
LIE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR OF THIS
WAVE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN
SEWD AFTER 3 AM. AS A RESULT..WE HAVE REDUCED POPS ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT..AND MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/WINDS
AS APPROPRIATE.

BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DULUTH CWA WILL LIKELY COME BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AM AND NOON WHEN
SECONDARY VORT MAX EVIDENT WEST OF WINNIPEG AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FGEN WITH THE COLD FRONT TRANSLATE NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULT IN MODEST TO MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT BELOW ROUGHLY 800
MB. BY THIS TIME..LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE COLD ENUF
TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW IN MOST AREAS. UPDATES TO REFLECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONING ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEARED OUT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKER
THAN THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
NICELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST CWA AROUND 50.

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AS WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. CANADIAN RADAR
SHOWS ECHOES WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
HIRES ARW HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THAT...AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER TONIGHT. WE DELAYED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH UNTIL LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASED THEM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE...KEEPING THE FAR SOUTH DRY UNTIL 12Z. SOUNDINGS AND LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST WARMER AIR WILL BE PRESENT
TONIGHT...BUT THE COLUMN WILL COOL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE FAR
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE EVENING...WITH
THAT MIX POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. LOWS
SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF TO THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN DURING THE
DAY...AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHS OCCUR
EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SNOW...OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 40.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND
FRI NIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE PRODUCING
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SAT AND SUN
USHERING IN A VERY COLD AIR MASS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A LEAD S/W WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE NEXT
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BARRELS THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY AMTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THERE IS DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WEAK AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WITH ANY SORT OF CONFIDENCE THE
DIRECT WX IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE NORTHLAND. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND CLOSELY
AS THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY COOL FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MON THROUGH WED WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

STRONG AND FAST-MOVING S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER SRN MANITOBA AT 00Z WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN CANADA..WITH PERHAPS ONLY SOME VICINITY SHOWERS OR A
SHORT PERIOD OF PREVAILING PRECIP IN KINL LATER THIS EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR A FEW HOURS OR SHORT PERIODS OF -RASN OR -SN
WITH MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED WITH SECONDARY VORT MAX AND LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING..ESP AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SLOW
FILLING/LOWERING OF VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT..WITH WINDS VEERING TO
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW AND BECOMING GUSTY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE 09-15Z TIME FRAME FRI MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  37  11  21 /  20  50  20  10
INL  26  32   0  15 /  50  50  30  10
BRD  29  37  10  26 /  20  30  10  10
HYR  30  40  11  25 /  10  40  30  10
ASX  31  41  12  21 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER