Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON
TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF NE MN FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS THIS EVENING...THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MN FROM THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND NW WI
BY THE MID MORNING. NW WISCONSIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF SFC BASED CAPE...PER 12Z NAM/GFS. FARTHER
WEST...THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN AND MUCH DRIER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS WILL PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NE MN FOR A FEW
HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. HELD OFF AS CONDITIONS WERE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO RE- EVALUATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A WELL-DEFINED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK THIS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...BECOMING FLATTENED OUT DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN MILDER TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A WEAK CLIPPER ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND WITH
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES DECIDED TO LEAVE IT DRY. WARMEST DAY
OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80 IN
MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR..IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE SHORE.

LATE FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT GENERALLY HAVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND AS ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON OCCASION. ON TUESDAY...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULT
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  64  36  55 /   0  10  10   0
INL  43  62  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  69  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  42  67  37  57 /   0  50  10   0
ASX  41  65  38  54 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE/WL
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP



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