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000
FXUS63 KDLH 082359
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
659 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FOCUS
ALSO ON OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

COLD UPPER LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE E/SEWD INTO
ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COMBINING WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE MN INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. AN EMBEDDED S/W WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER E-CNTRL MANITOBA DROPPING SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SUSTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
IS ALSO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY...MU CAPE VALUES 300-400
J/KG CUTTING N-S THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THAT WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND COULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PULSE UP AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST AREA OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RUN FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO NW WI.

WILL LIKELY SEE THE THREAT FOR STORMS DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COLLAPSE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF A WEAK UPPER S/W FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
REGION IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NORTHLAND. WHERE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT IS WHERE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 40S ARE
LIKELY WITH A FEW LOWER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING TO THE N/NE ON WED INTO WRN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR ERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE
BL TO PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW WI. SFC TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE 70S QUICKLY ON LATE WED MORNING AND STEEPEN THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN AREA OF STRATO-CU AND
EVENTUALLY A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY ON WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NORTHLAND IS EXPECTED TO SEE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVER THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING...I PROVIDED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
EVENING SINCE SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE CLEAR SKIES LIKELY WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THOSE CHANCES WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE ECMWF IS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HOLDS OFF
PCPN UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS WARM AND HUMID. SOUTH TO SSW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NE MINNESOTA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE INDICATING A RIBBON OF 500 TO 1500
J/KG OF CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER (0 TO 6 KM) WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINISHES MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY WILL SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN TH
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...SIMILAR TO THE DAY BEFORE...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY FEEL LESS HUMID DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN
CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLOWER PASSAGE TO THE COLD
FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP SSE TO CENTRAL
MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW HUDSON BAY REGION. ITS PRONOUNCED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
CLOUDY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COOL NW TO NNW FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BKN/OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN MAY
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY LOWER CIGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  73  52  74 /  30   0   0   0
INL  49  72  47  77 /  20   0   0  10
BRD  53  77  53  79 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  48  75  49  79 /  40  20  10   0
ASX  48  72  47  74 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING