Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DETERIORATE THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING AS RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ONLY GETTING AS FAR
NORTH AS KHIB...LEAVING KINL VFR. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER...AND KDLH
MAY DROP INTO LIFR AT TIMES. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KBRD
AFTER 21Z...BUT NOT BETTER THAN MVFR. KHYR TO ALSO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES AND ALLOWS CEILINGS TO RISE TO
MVFR AND RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  58  49  71 /  80  90  60  40
INL  49  72  48  78 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  54  63  50  75 /  80  90  50  20
HYR  55  61  52  71 /  80  90  30  50
ASX  49  56  50  69 /  80  90  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE







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