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000
FXUS63 KDLH 161149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RW/TRW INCREASING AT KINL/KHIB. AS THE BDRY
SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT
REMAINING TERMINALS. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT AT KHIB
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG SFC FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE S/WV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVR
SRN MANITOBA WITH LOBE ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THIS SYSTEM
SWINGS SOUTHEST ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL HELP
SET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS AT
LOWER LEVELS...QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST UNTIL MOISTURE ADVECTION
LATER IN FIRST PERIOD HELPS MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS . IN
ADDITION...A GOOD PUSH OF WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT...AIDING IN MORE UVV...LATE THIS AFTNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NRN MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING...THEN
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY MAY HOLD OFF IN THE HYR TO PBH AREAS
TIL NEAR OR AFTER 6 PM. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FGEN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ARROWHEAD ALONG THE LOW LVL TEMP
GRADIENT...THEN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY
00Z THIS AREA WILL BE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE IRON RANGE OF MINNESOTA
AND BY 03Z FRONT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THRU DLH AND IN NRN
WISCONSIN. FEEL THIS MAY BE THE AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
MUCAPES OVER 2K J/KG JUST AT PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND LI`S ABOUT
-5.

FOR THE MOST PART MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
MONDAY...WHEN THE DIFFERENCES DO SHOW UP IN RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
WITH LAGGING SFC TROF. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WILL BE QUITE CLOUDIER AND COOL NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE OFF-LAKE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF SFC
BOUNDARY.

HAS BEEN DENSE FOG IN AREAS OR NRN WI THAT HAD RAIN LAST
EVENING...FROM KHYR TO KPBH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING.

LONG TERM...
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A NWRLY MID LVL FLOW WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION KEEPS
FCST DRY MON NIGHT. VERY CHILLY MORNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVER REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOCATIONS OVER ERN WISC ZONES
MAY SEE SOME UPPER 30S. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BDRY WILL APPROACH THE
NWRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN BDRY LYR SO SUSPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HAVE A SLIGHT CHC
POPS NWRN CORNER TUES NIGHT BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. FRONTAL BDRY
STALLS NORTH OF BORDER WEDNESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS SFC HIGH OVER CWA.
HOWEVER...THE FCST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS OVER MOST OF
THE CWA INDICATE A CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MOST
FAVORED AREA MAY BE ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS 85/70H MSTR
TRANSPORT AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FROM
MIDWEEK TO FRIDAY FEATURES A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN LOW LAYERS
WITH LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. SFC BDRY MAY SLIDE SOUTH INTO NRN MN
ZONES THURSDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. THIS PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS THROUGH THE WEEK
AS PWATS INCREASE ABOVE CLIMO. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
SPECIFIC ABOUT EXACT LOCATION..THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THUR/FRIDAY CONSIDERING THE FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THIS PERIOD.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  51  61  43 /  30  40  40   0
INL  73  50  71  43 /  50  40  20  10
BRD  80  55  72  47 /  30  30  30  10
HYR  79  54  72  41 /  40  40  40   0
ASX  75  49  67  40 /  50  40  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...CANNON