Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141737
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1137 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1017 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Parts of the forecast were updated through tomorrow. The latest
models have delayed when the snow spreads in from the north
tonight and tomorrow, so this forecast reflects that trend. Also,
the models suggest gusty winds with the cold air pouring down from
the north late tonight and tomorrow. It appeared our previous
forecast had winds that were too weak. The GFS soundings indicate
a good potential for 15 to 20 mph gusts, especially closer to
central Minnesota. The winds and gusts were increased with this
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

At 345 AM, skies were mostly clear across the Northland. The
exception was in a small area of northwest Wisconsin, where some
low clouds lingered near Phillips. Southerly winds continued to
bring warmer weather into the region, with temperatures ranging
from the teens to lower 20s.

The focus for today will be relatively mild high temperatures.
South winds ahead of a cold front in southern Canada will allow
temperatures to climb through the 30s, to near 40 across the
region by this afternoon. The cold front will then push southward
across the region tonight and Thursday. Post frontal snow could
result in an inch of snow accumulation, mainly across the north.
Localized amounts of up to 2 inches will be possible.

The front will then drop southward across the region on Thursday,
resulting in lingering snow showers, and slowly falling temps.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The period will start out with cold air advection. Snow showers will
linger into the evening over northwest Wisconsin and overnight in
the snowbelt of Ashland and Iron Counties. Accumulation will be
light. Lows will drop to the single digits below zero over northwest
Wisconsin to the teens below over far northern Minnesota. Wind
chills from 20 below to near 35 below zero will be possible over
northern Minnesota Thursday night, mainly along and north of Highway
2 so Wind Chill Advisories may be needed. High pressure will build
into the area late Thursday night bringing a dry period Friday into
Friday evening. A shortwave will move in Friday night and exit
Saturday. Light snow will be possible with only light accumulation.
There may be some lake enhancement along the North Shore as
southerly winds develop Friday night. Highs Friday will be in the
teens but warm into the twenties on Saturday.

The models start to diverge on their solutions Sunday through the
remainder of the period. An upper trough will move over the western
CONUS Sunday then it will move east and stretch from northern
Manitoba through the southwest CONUS by 00Z Wednesday. A couple of
different shortwaves will eject from the upper trough and bring
chances for snow to the region. The ECMWF is quicker bringing in
snow Saturday night and has low pressure into the Northern Plains by
12Z Sunday but the GFS is slower. As the upper trough moves further
east Sunday night into Monday, an elongated area of surface low
pressure will move into the Southern/Central Plains with a
baroclinic zone over the Northland. More snow will be possible
Monday into Tuesday as the low lifts northeast, with chances highest
over the southeast half of the Northland. A prolonged period of snow
will be possible from Sunday through Tuesday, although a break will
be possible between shortwaves. Some snow accumulation will be
likely but it`s too early to determine how much.

Highs Sunday will range from the teens along the International
Border to 25 to 30 over northwest Wisconsin. Highs Monday and
Tuesday will range from the teens to lower twenties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions will continue until around 06z tonight when a
surface low pressure system and cold front will make its way
through the Northland. This cold front will bring chances of light
snow, especially to KINL and KHIB. Confidence is lower for snow
chances for the southern TAF sites, although KDLH could see some
brief light snow. Some of the guidance was hinting at some fog
development near KHYR overnight ahead of the cold front, but
confidence isn`t high enough to put into the TAFs at this time.
MVFR/IFR cigs will be likely along the cold front as well.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  21  27  -5 /   0  20  30  10
INL  36  11  14 -15 /   0  70  50   0
BRD  38  20  25  -5 /   0  10  20  10
HYR  40  22  32  -3 /   0  10  40  30
ASX  40  24  30   0 /   0  20  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...JTS



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