Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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284
FXUS63 KDLH 250549
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Updated to remove some counties in the winter weather advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow continued across eastern portions of our NW Wisconsin CWA as
of this evening. We did see quite a period of persistent snow
across that area during the afternoon and evening. While snow was
still falling across that area, it appears the snowfall rates will
continue to gradually fall for most areas. Partial clearing was
found across the western portion of the CWA, and as a result we
have dropped temps somewhat for north central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A robust band of snow set up over northwest Wisconsin this
morning, but it is slowly disintegrating, with weakening radar
returns. The radar has shown pretty robust lake effect snow
showers over Douglas and Bayfield county today, and the visibility
at Solon Springs dropped down to a mile and a half. Models are
indicating that frontogenesis with the band is weakening and
shifting southeast of the forecast area for the rest of the
afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports so far this afternoon
have been under performing under the band as well, with no more
than 1.5 to 3 inches so far. Road reports from northwest Wisconsin
show no worse than slippery stretches as well. Thus, have down
graded the winter storm warnings to an Advisory for Ashland, Price
and Sawyer counties, but due to the fairly robust lake effect
bands have kept Iron county going for the remainder of the
warning. An advisory remains in effect for Bayfield and Burnett.
Snowfall amounts for the rest of the afternoon and night should
range from 2 to 4 inches, with more possible in the higher terrain
of Iron county around Hurley depending on the lake effect bands
that move across that area. Lake effect should continue into
Saturday morning, before diminishing as dry air moves in to weaken
the snow showers. Lows overnight tonight should fall into the
single digits to lower teens as the cirrus is departing and cold
air is moving into the area on the heels of the storm. Saturday
should have at least a short period of clear/nearly clear skies,
with high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. It might feel cold
due to our recent stretch of warm temperatures, but it should
otherwise be a nice day for February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The weekend ends with a clipper system bringing 1-2" of snow to much
of the Northland, then warmer into the beginning of the work week as
the weather pattern shifts from northwest to southwest. Tuesday into
Wednesday a more organized low looks to develop in the Great Plains
and lift northeast towards the upper Great Lakes, but there still
remains considerable spread in solutions across models and their
ensembles. Precipitation appears likely across the Northland, but
when exactly, how much, and in what form (rain or snow) is a tough
call. Late in the week into the weekend northwest flow resumes with
a series of clippers bringing light snow and cooler temperatures.
Generally mild to near normal temperatures through the work week
with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s most days, except Monday and
Tuesday when highs may approach 40 in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Sunday the clipper-like mid-level shortwave trough
moving from west to east across the northern Great Plains into the
upper Midwest looks to bring a quick round of light snowfall to
parts of the region. Based on the latest guidance precipitation
chances and amounts were raised slightly, with 1-2" possible across
a large swath of NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Given the
fast flow aloft, though, this storm isn`t likely to bring much more
than 2" of snow to a large area. Most of the snow looks to fall
early Sunday morning, ending by mid-day from west to east.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be milder as the synoptic scale
flow aloft changes from northwest to southwest flow in response to a
longwave mid/upper level wave deepening over the Great Basin region
into the Great Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of
the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday leading to a resultant
surface low deepening, but the exact timing/track of this low is
tough to discern at this point because of the wide variation in
model solutions. Generally this pattern looks to favor precipitation
across the upper Midwest, but there are numerous challenges with
large-scale forcing, moisture, and temperatures (at the surface and
aloft) to make it worthwhile to make an attempt at a more detailed
forecast. Model consensus is for precipitation to begin as early as
late Monday, ending towards Wednesday morning with rain mixing with
snow at times.

Late week northwest flow resumes in the wake of the mid-week system
with colder temperatures and occasional chances for light snowfall.
Temperatures may finally fall to below normal by the weekend, ending
our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. (The day with an
average temperature below normal at Duluth was Feb 9.)

Beyond the 7-day, both the GFS and ECMWF support a very active west-
northwest flow leading to the possibility of several powerful to
impact the upper Midwest next weekend. While still a long ways out,
definitely something to keep an eye on given the very good agreement
with the 12z GFS/ECMWF. (Though the 06z GFS has a much less dynamic
solution with a fairly flat flow supporting a weaker parade-of-
clippers scenario continuing into the weekend.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected for much of the Northland TAF sites
overnight and into Saturday, although there will be some patches
of MVFR CIG`s moving through on occasion. VSBY`s should remain VFR
until Saturday evening, when a weak wave moves in from the west.
At that time we could see some visibility restrictions due to
falling snow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  26  16  27 /  10   0  60  30
INL   0  23   5  21 /   0  20  20  10
BRD   9  32  18  31 /   0  10  40  30
HYR   9  28  18  33 /  50  10  40  40
ASX  11  29  18  32 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP



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