Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 200554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1154 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Issued at 1154 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Updated below for 06z Aviation Discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

At 345 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Northland. Some
spotty rain showers continued to move across the north, and will
move into the Arrowhead yet this afternoon. Temperatures were the
big story this afternoon, as we experienced a couple record high
temperatures! The first was at International Falls, and the other
was at Hibbing. High temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the
middle 40s across the region.

The main focus tonight will be the potential for some light
precipitation across the northeast, and overnight low
temperatures. We should continue to see a good deal of cloud cover
overnight, as we will be in between approaching low pressure to
our southwest, and a cold front dropping southward into the Lake
Superior region overnight. Overnight lows are only expected to
drop into the 20s for most areas due to the cloud cover and light
winds. We should see the light rain showers linger across the
Arrowhead into the evening, before pushing off to the east.

Saturday will be a day of transition, with partly sunny skies and
light winds across the region. A weak wave could bring some spotty
rain/snow showers to the north in the afternoon, but have not
included POP`s quite yet regarding the potential for this. High
temperatures should be in the 30s. If enough sun breaks through,
we could see a few 40 degree readings in the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The main concern during the long term continues to be the winter
storm which will move through the region Sunday through Tuesday

The forecast remains largely on track Saturday night through
Sunday. Southerly flow over a surface warm front situated over
east-central Minnesota and central Wisconsin will result in
forcing for ascent late Saturday night and early Sunday morning
over our southern tier of counties. Light snow showers are
possible early in the day, but accumulation will be light, less
than an inch.

The main area of snow will move into the Northland late Sunday
afternoon or early Sunday evening, expanding across northwest
Wisconsin and the Brainerd Lakes through Duluth. Snow is expected
to arrive in the Twin Ports and Ashland vicinity between 9 PM and
midnight Sunday night. Snow will continue through the night and
increase in intensity during the day Monday as the storm system
becomes better organized. Sensible heat and moisture flux from
Lake Superior is expected to enhance snowfall rates and amounts
from Bayfield and Sawyer Counties east to the Michigan border. The
system will become vertically stacked by Monday evening and will
lift through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario by Tuesday
morning. Cyclonic flow in the wake of the system will keep a
potential for lake effect snow in play through Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. A swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow is forecast
from southern Pine County across southeast Douglas County to
northern Bayfield County and points east. A sharp gradient in snow
accumulation is likely to the northwest of the heaviest snow with
areas from southeast Aitkin County, the Twin Ports, and areas
along the North Shore picking up 1 to 4 inches. Brainerd and Ely
may only see a dusting and locales farther north and west should
stay dry.

There are still some concerns with the going forecast, mainly
that there is poor agreement in timing between the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEM. The ECMWF is also farther south and has been
consistently the southern member for the past several runs. The
GEM is a bit faster and the GFS lags behind the consensus. Since
the upper wave was still offshore at 12Z, there could be a shift
in the guidance with the 20.00Z or 20.12Z runs as the western
upper air network is able to sample the wave. Confidence is high
in snow occurring and all signals point to heavy snow, the main
questions remain timing and location. Further refinement to the
forecast tonight and Saturday is expected.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast after the storm system for
Wednesday into Thursday keeping temperatures mild. Northerly
winds over western Lake Superior will keep a potential for lake
effect snow in play until Thursday morning, although most of the
accumulation will occur before 6 AM Wednesday as the storm system


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

A frontal boundary stalled out along the International Border will
keep some MVFR CIGS in place for KHIB and KINL through the night.
A few light rain or snow showers cannot be ruled out at KINL over
the next few hours with the front, but chances are very low. The
front will remain in the area for tomorrow as well. This will lead
to VFR and MVFR CIGS across the terminals through the day. KDLH
should remain VFR through the period, but the other terminals will
see variable CIGS. Light winds are expected through the period.


DLH  25  36  23  31 /  10   0  10  10
INL  23  32  15  28 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  22  36  22  32 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  24  37  24  37 /  10   0  20  30
ASX  27  37  24  34 /  10   0  10  20


WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for WIZ002>004-006>009.



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