Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 212336
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER. LATEST
DLH OBS HAS A 27 KNOT WIND GUST. THE DLH 88D VWP STILL SHOWING
30KTS AT 2K FT...BUT ATMOS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...AND
DECREASE THE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR CLOUDS. COOLER AIR MASS WILL GIVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..AS A MAIN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN SWING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH A SNOWFALL FORECAST
BUT COULD BE A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE IF THINGS ARE A BIT COOLER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND AS A
POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK FORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CEILINGS FROM 2500-4500 FEET OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LASTING LONGEST AT KHIB. THESE CEILINGS ARE
NOT ENTIRELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WE MAY SEE BASES DIMINISH
TOWARD MVFR IN SPOTS AS WELL. THE RAP KEEPS CEILINGS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE EVENTUALLY DO BRING
SCATTERED CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  53  32  47 /   0   0   0  70
INL  31  54  32  54 /  10   0   0  40
BRD  33  58  38  53 /   0   0  10  70
HYR  32  54  31  55 /   0   0   0  60
ASX  32  50  29  51 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE






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