Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290953
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
453 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

High pressure over northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan this morning
has continued to keep weather quiet with mostly clear skies and
light winds.  Fog has formed this morning as well, and it is
affecting more locations, but so far is less dense than yesterday
morning.  Today the ridge slides a little farther southeast,
allowing return flow south winds to begin to increase over the area.
Expect a modification of temperatures over yesterday, with high
temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s nearly everywhere.

A cold front extends from Lake Winnipeg southwest towards eastern
Montana this morning.  This front will slide slowly southeast
towards the forecast area, and will serve as a focus for convection
along it.  It will not get close enough to bring precipitation into
the forecast area until after midnight tonight. As convergence along
the front is weak, there is weak ridging at mid levels, and no
apparent jet streak or shortwave aloft have decided to keep pops to
slight chance for now.

Sunday the front finally sags into the forecast area, but is so weak
and with so little convergence along it precipitation chances remain
no more than low end chance for now.  Temperatures continue to warm
with highs by Sunday in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Low chances for precipitation through much of next week for parts of
the Northland but overall no significant chances for widespread
precipitation nor much of a risk for widespread severe storms.
Temperatures above normal late weekend into early next week, then
closer to seasonable or even slightly cooler than normal mid to late
week.

On the synoptic scale the pattern remains fairly similar to the
past few weeks with a broad ridge developing over the Rockies mid to
late week. A mid-level shortwave trough axis will swing east across
the Canadian Prairie into the Upper Midwest early to mid week,
associated with an upper low near Hudson Bay. Ahead of this mid-
level trough axis an area of high pressure will be centered over
Iowa Sunday with south to southwesterly flow at low levels bringing
in warmer and slightly more moist air resulting in warmer
temperatures and some instability. A cold front associated with the
mid-level trough axis approaches the Upper Midwest from the
northwest Monday night into Tuesday bringing a chance for showers
and storms across the region - mainly in northern Minnesota Monday
night, then in northern Wisconsin on Tuesday.

Mid to late week cooler air moves into the region as a cool Canadian
high pressure builds across northwest Ontario and northern Minnesota
towards the weekend. Highs as cool as the 60s in the Twin Ports
Thursday, gradually warming up over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

High pressure will remain in place throughout the TAF period,
bringing clear and calm conditions overnight with fair weather
clouds for the day on Saturday. Still some signs that patchy fog
may develop towards daybreak, but best chances look to be in the
Twin Ports area, primarily below the hill and away from KDLH.
However, some patchy fog has already been observed in the vicinity
of the airport, so opted to leave in MVFR conditions to account
for this potential. VFR conditions will then be seen through the
remainder of the TAF period. There will be some cumulus
development for the afternoon hours on Saturday that may bring
ceilings to around 5 to 7 kft before lifting closer to sunset.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  62  85  62 /   0  10  10  10
INL  85  62  85  60 /  10  30  20  10
BRD  82  62  83  62 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  83  59  84  59 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  85  61  87  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BJH



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