Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 172313
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF TH FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  25  18  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   8  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF





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