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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN JUST A BIT. USED THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRIM BACK THE ICE ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS.
HYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE GUSTY WIND. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 06Z AT INL/BRD AND SPREAD E OVERNIGHT REACHING HYR BY 13Z.
-FZRASN AT INL BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z. -FZRA AT
HIB/DLH CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AT HIB BY 12Z AND DLH BY 15Z. BRD/HYR
WILL SEE ALL RAIN. MVFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE BANDS OF PCPN
AT HIB AND INL. THE GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  90  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  20  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  50  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF