Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 062049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOR THE RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS OF 3PM...THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL IS
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20KTS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES
MODELS...AND CAUSES THE RAIN TO EXIT THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...AT THE LATEST. AROUND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WE ARE OBSERVING AN AREA OF
SMOKE/FOG...WHICH THEN DISSIPATES ONCE THE STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP AS THE COLD FRONT GETS FARTHER EAST. EXPECT THE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO STAY UP WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT SOME CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA MIN TEMPS WHERE DOWN IN THE 40S OVER A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S FARTHER NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT QUITE
THAT COLD...BUT HAVE GONE WITH SOME MID 40S ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND THE IRON RANGE. TUESDAY TO BE QUIET WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH SOME FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S...FOR MIN RH
VALUES DOWN IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE...MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STARTS OUT RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM REG/NAM ARE
ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
INTO WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT... EXTENDING FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TO MONTANA...MOVES INTO THE FAR NW MINNESOTA AND STALLS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FRONT WILL ERODE AND
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY... THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER WE
SEE ANY SHOWERS OUT OF IT. NAM/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY KEPT POPS WEST OF THE CWA... SO ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS INL SOUTHWARD TO BRD. IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OUT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN... SO FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
LATER.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ALL
WEEK... WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHLAND IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND. ENDED UP
TWEAKING BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS UP A BIT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE
BCCONSALL/BCCONSMOS.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ECMWF/GFS
BOTH MOVE A COLORADO LOW NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS... RAISING
A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS MN/WI SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. GFS...
WHILE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS... PEAKS MUCAPE IN THE 2000-
4000 J/KG RANGE... SO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BARES WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY... EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN
SITES OF KHIB/KDLH/KHYR... WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THE CLEARING LINE...WHICH WILL USHER IN VFR CONDITIONS... HAS
ALREADY REACHED WESTERN MINNESOTA AND KINL... AND WILL REACH KBRD
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. KHIB MAY BREAK OUT A LITTLE EARLY DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
REACH THE EASTERN SITES AROUND 00Z OR SO... AND WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE. NNW WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON UP TO 25KTS... AND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...THE POSSIBILITY OF SMOKE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO NW WINDS MOVING THE SMOKE PLUME FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
INL  45  71  47  75 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  49  71  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  70  47  74 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  51  68  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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