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000
FXUS63 KDLH 112020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND SKY COVER AND
SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM
DULUTH TO ASHLAND TO MONTREAL TONIGHT...ALONG WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY WED MORNING.

WEAK SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN MN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED W/NW WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE NORTHLAND AND MOST OF THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL STRATO-CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE EVENING. THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SE TONIGHT AND BECOME POSITIONED
JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD IN WRN ONTARIO WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO PRODUCE A MODEST NE WIND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ADVECT OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE TWIN PORTS TO THE GOGEBIC RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY -19 TO -22 DEG
C...WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 1 TO 2 DEG C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW BL
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT LES. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LAYER MIGHT
BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR WITH BDY LAYER HEIGHTS AROUND 4K FT.
RECENT WARMING AND STRONG WINDS HAVE ALLOWED MUCH OF THE LAKE TO
LOSE ITS SOLID ICE COVER...SO WITH MUCH OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
OPEN...CONDITIONS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL. THE
CHANCE FOR LES WILL BE FLEETING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY MID-LATE
WED MORNING. SNOW AMTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH FROM
DOUGLAS TO IRON COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY TONIGHT UNDER AREAS THAT SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE WRN
COUNTIES. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LE CLOUDS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPS
WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -15 TO -20.

TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A WAA PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS TOMORROW TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER TO MID 20S. SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR OFF EARLY WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER MID-HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A PERIOD OF STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WE LEANED TOWARD
IT AND INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A HALF TO AROUND
ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE WAA. SOUNDINGS LOOK SUPPORTIVE
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO OCCUR AFTER THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD
AND WE KEPT HIGHS IN THE FORTIES...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF MOST
GUIDANCE. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS WHEN TEMPS HAVE BEEN MILD.

A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AIR. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY...AND
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF OPEN WATER...SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. COOLER HIGHS IN THE
TWENTIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE
FROM RUN TO RUN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IT HAS
GONE BACK TO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY OCCURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TWENTIES
TO LOWER THIRTIES...WITH LOWER TO MID THIRTIES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL TONIGHT. STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-3500 TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. THE RAP HAS DONE AN OK JOB DEPICTING THE CLOUDS...BUT
DOES SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE
OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGERY...AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW MORE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
MOVING IN. AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME LES/CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN KDLH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   4  20   9  43 /  30  10  60  10
INL  -8  19  12  44 /  10  10  60  10
BRD   7  23  15  47 /  10  10  50   0
HYR   3  19   6  44 /  20  10  50  10
ASX   3  13   4  46 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE