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000
FXUS63 KDLH 072320 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
520 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SFC COLD FRONT HAS EXITED NW WI AT 20Z. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS...PLENTY PF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PREVAIL. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER IS GENERATING SOME FLURRIES OVER THE BORDERLAND TO THE IRON
RANGE. AREAS OF FOG WERE PERSISTING IN NW WI BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER. SOME HOLES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT
THE CLEARING FROM THOSE HOLES TO CONTINUE SPREADING OVER THE FA FROM
W TO E WHERE FAR NW WI ZONES WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. COLDEST MIN
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN EDGE WHERE THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION IN
THE MORNING GIVES WAY TO WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT. WILL SEE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THIS WAA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL PLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT ALLOW A STRONG WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT
MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND
SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.  THERE WILL BE
SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  HAVE LEFT THESE AS
SNOW FOR NOW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MIXED PRECIP EVEN THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WARM AIR MOVING UP OVER THE HEAVY SNOWPACK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE WARM AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP ONCE AGAIN. MUCH OF THIS
DEPENDS ON OUR THERMAL PROFILE OF COURSE.  IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT THIS...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP.  BY MONDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT OF ALL SNOW THEN.  MONDAY TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN GET.

TUESDAY THE COLD AIR SLIDES BACK INTO THE AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE...AND WE WILL HAVE SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS TO BE COLDER AGAIN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH.  BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. MODELS ARE
TRYING TO RUN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND TRACK ARE
VARYING WIDELY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY ONLY A SLIGHT POP FOR
NOW.

WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA...WITH
SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WITH SOME SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO SHIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
7-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
10 KT AND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. COULD ALSO SEE MID-LVL STRATO-CU
DEVELOP OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE MORNING AND PUSH TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SAT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FOG SAT MORNING AROUND INL AND BRD...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   4  23  13  40 /   0   0   0  10
INL  -3  21  10  38 /   0   0  10  10
BRD   0  25  14  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR   6  26   9  40 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   8  26  11  41 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT