Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252052
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH SOME EVEN WEAKER TROUGH AXES TO SERVE AS THE
INITIATOR FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AT 850MB...THERE
IS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A FEW OF THESE
ELEVATED STORMS MAY MOVE OUR WAY AS WELL.  THUS...HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE GRIDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW AND EXPECT SOME
ADJUSTMENT.  TONIGHT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALSO GIVE US A BIT OF A BOOST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO BOOST US INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.  THE INCREASING
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PUSH
FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS YIELDING SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WARM MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 90S.

WITH THE VERY WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ALOFT. ONLY THE GFS INDICATES A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE OTHER MODELS TOO
CAPPED FOR STORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER CONSENSUS. LATER UPDATES
MAY INTRODUCE EVENING STORMS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING WHICH MAY SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO MY WEST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. GFS BRINGS A
STACKED LOW INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM BOTH TAKE THE FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A TRACK
FARTHER NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE AN OUTCOME
CLOSER TO THE GFS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTH. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SHAVE 10 DEGREES OFF
TUESDAYS HIGHS FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S
WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR
MIDWEEK AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS A VORT MAX
PASSES THROUGH THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 12345 CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH- CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 26.00Z WITH BACKING WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
VCSH FOUND AT INL/BRD/HIB. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
MVFR VSBYS. THERE IS A CHANCE HYR/BRD/HIB MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR VSBYS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
PREVAILING GROUP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  10
INL  57  87  64  87 /  20  20  10  20
BRD  63  86  65  87 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  59  85  62  86 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  63  87  62  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK


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