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000
FXUS63 KDLH 141524 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1024 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A WEAK CONVECTIVE FIELD OF
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER NE
MN. WILL LIKELY SEE THIS AREA OF PRECIP EXPAND EWD AS THE BL
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND CAA
ALOFT TRANSLATES EWD. STILL A CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BECOME TEMPORARILY INTENSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL CANCEL WINT WX ADVISORY OVER PRICE COUNTY AS SNOW IS ENDING
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LVL PATTERN FEATURES AN ELONGATED AND SOMEWHAT PHASED NRN AND
SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE CTRL CONUS. NRN BRANCH HAS
SWEPT A COLD ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE CWA WITH DEEPENING NRLY
FLOW EVIDENT IN SFC/85H LAYER. A LARGE CANOPY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVER CWA WITH BACK EDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO WRN CWA AT
THIS TIME. DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS BEING SUPPLIED BY
THE STRONG RRQ OF THE 150KT UPPER JET FROM NRN SODAK INTO NRN
ONTARIO. WEAK MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER SERN CORNER OF CWA
COMBINED WITH THIS UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS PROVIDED DEEPER LAYER
ASCENT OVER ERN EDGE OF CWA. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES HOWEVER WITHIN PAST HR SNOW APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPBH. SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER IN THIS REGION
SO ACCUMULATION STILL POSSIBLE. ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT BASED ON
POTENTIAL OF NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERAL INCHES IN SERN PRICE
COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLIER IF
CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN NEXT FEW HRS. ELSEWHERE A FEW FLURRIES
CONTINUE OVER NRN AND WRN MN ZONES UNDERNEATH 85H THERMAL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TODAY...MID LVL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE A STEEPENING OF LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL OF SCT SNSH. LATEST FCST FROM HI-RES SNSQ
PARAMETER PRODUCT INDICATES SHOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS BORDERLAND...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTH ACROSS
TWIN PORTS INTO NWRN WISC ZONES IN THE AFTN. MDL SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE
CONFINED TO A LAYER BETWEEN 3K AND 7K FT. HOWEVER THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE APPROXIMATE ZONE OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH. MAIN LIMITATION
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO MOISTURE SO CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. MAX TEMPS WELL BLO CLIMO BY 10 TO 15
DEGREES.

TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
INSTABILITY LESSENS QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. COLD
NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TEENS. MIXING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN BDRY LYR HOWEVER IF THIS IS OVER FORECAST THEN WE MAY
NEED TO LOWER TEMP VALUES ACROSS NRN MN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING BUT FORECAST LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN PREVIOUS DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE STRONG SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SOLUTION FOR THE AXIS FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
BY 00Z THU...THE GFS/NAM GENERALLY  HAS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OMA TO MQT.  THE ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR ARX AND THE GEM HAS THE LOW CENTER AROUND MSP.  BASED ON
CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CURRENT TRENDS...WILL GO WITH
ECMWF FOR THE SOLUTION OF LOW MOVEMENT.

THE GFS AND NAM  INDICATE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL EXTENDS
FROM NEAR PINE COUNTY AND EXTEND TO NEAR MQT.  THE ECMWF INDICATE
THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AIT THROUGH DLH TO SOUTH OF MQT.  WILL GO WITH
COMPROMISE OF THE MODELS ON AXIS AND WITH HAVE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM
NRN PINE COUNTY EAST TO MQT.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL
IT EXTEND AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.  THE GEM AND NAM IS THE
HIGHEST WITH 10-12 INCHES AT DLH WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS NW WI.
THE ECMWF HAS 7-10 INCHES INT HE HEAVY SNOW AXIS THAT INCLUDES DLH.
THE GEM HAS 8-12 INCHES WITH AROUND 10-11 INCHES AT DLH.  THE GFS
HAS 8-14 INCHES WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST WITH 14-20 INCHES ACROSS NW
WI. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED ON CONSISTENCY WITH
AMOUNTS 6-10 INCHES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW AXIS.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW PULLS EAST. IT WILL REMAIN COLD ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND STARTS ON THE FRIDAY AND EXTENDS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
50S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT HYR. MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THAT TAF SITE THROUGH MID-
MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...IT SHOULD
BE QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  12  31  19 /  20  10   0  30
INL  26   7  27  14 /  20  10   0  20
BRD  34  15  37  25 /  10   0   0  40
HYR  32  12  34  21 /  20  10   0  40
ASX  30  13  31  20 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART