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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242355
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
555 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

NEXT EXPANSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS..BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT. SPEEDS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE 5-8 MPH RANGE..AND A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE SOME LOCAL GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WIND CHILLS EXCEEDING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS NORTHERN MN..AND
WE HAVE HOISTED AN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THROUGH 10 AM WED MORNING
FOR ALL AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. NUMBERS WILL
FLIRT WITH -40F WARNING THRESHOLD ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE/COOK
COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. READINGS WILL
ALSO BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN..BUT SINCE DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HOURS
VERY LATE TONIGHT WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE NW WI OUT OF THE
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
TONIGHT..AND WITH THE OPEN WATER ON LK SUPERIOR THAT HAS RESULTED
FROM THE STRONG SW WINDS YESTERDAY..THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO GET GOING OVER NW WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER..WE HAVE KEPT ACCUMS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS..AS
ICE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REFORM FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT/WED WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THINGS BY WED MORNING.

SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST..WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED OVER NE MN IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLDEST TEMPS AT
925/850 MB.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WE HAVE LOWS FROM THE LOWER
TWENTIES BELOW ZERO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE TEENS
BELOW MOST OTHER AREAS. WE KEPT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS BELOW ABOUT 8
MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE MIXING
WILL OCCUR. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW IN
SPOTS AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT OVER PARTS OF
ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT DRY
AIR/ICE SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.

LOWS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN START TO
MODERATE.

THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW ZERO WITH
SINGLE DIGITS HIGHS ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND TWENTY
BY SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING TO LESS THAN 10KTS BY 04Z. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEST...TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS. SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z BUT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11   8 -12   7 /   0   0   0   0
INL -21   3 -22   5 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  -7  10 -13   8 /   0   0   0   0
HYR -12   9 -16   8 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  -7   7 -12   7 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-026-037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
AVIATION...LE