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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
912 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

HAD A REPORT FROM A NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH OF VIRGINIA MN OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY...CARLTON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ARE ATTM ON KDLH RADAR. COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED THE FA AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS
ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW WILL STAY
WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE REMOVED THE POPS IN THIS AREA. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO NEAR PORT WING AND
INLAND OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. NO REAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE
AN UNEVENTFUL AND RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHLAND. HAD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP POPS FOR THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THOUGH FOR THE TWIN PORTS
CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW.

LATE TODAY...A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OUT THERE ESPECIALLY FROM
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION TYPE VARIED LOCALLY...FROM A LIGHT
FLURRY/DRIZZLE/SLEET TO LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN COLDER NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
SKIES.

TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE...OTHERWISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN A FEW PLACES.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO
BRING A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT...A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS MEANS THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH/WEST...WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN THEN NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THE TWIN PORTS AND
NORTH SHORE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE...WITH A LONG FETCH AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SNOW THAT MAY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THESE BANDS DEVELOP THEY TEND TO MEANDER...AND WHILE
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS IN THE MOST INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MORE THAN INCH OF
SNOW...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE MID 20S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SNOWFALL CHANCES END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...BUT ANY BANDS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE IN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AS INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IN THE REGION.  AT THE MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LARGEST
AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD ACROSS COOK AND LAKE
COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO DROP
OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE BRD LAKES REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL MN AND SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY OF MIXED FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR OVERTAKES THE ENTIRE COLUMN BY
MIDNIGHT.  SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW.

UNLIKE THE OTHER CLIPPERS...THIS ONE WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  BY SATURDAY...LOWS WILL BE -5 TO -15
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE FIGURES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR AT INL THROUGH THE FORECAST. MVFR ELSEWHERE AT THE OUTSET.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED FROM 06Z TO 12Z AS DRY AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE EAST. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT
DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  19  15  30 /  20  30  70  50
INL   2  16  14  30 /   0  30  70  50
BRD  20  23  20  38 /  10  20  40  20
HYR  15  21  13  28 /  10  10  40  60
ASX  15  20  12  30 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF