Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161738 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1138 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

For 18Z TAFs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Mild temperatures through the beginning of the work week with a
chance for a light wintry mix of snow and/or freezing rain in parts
of northwest Wisconsin tonight. Otherwise just increasing clouds
from south to north today, then clearing from west to east on
Tuesday.

On the synoptic scale a slow-moving weak stacked low will cross the
mid-Mississippi River Valley from west to east tonight, with a broad
precipitation shield reaching into northern Wisconsin. Guidance has
continued to trend farther south with the low track, so only left
fairly low probabilities for precipitation tonight across areas of
northwest Wisconsin, with Price county having the best shot for
precipitation. A lack of adequate mid-level moisture may result in
freezing rain instead of snow due to a lack of ice aloft, though
depending on where the best mesoscale forcing develops it is
possible precipitation would be more snow than freezing rain when
precip intensity is strongest. Still, only looking at a few tenths
of an inch of snow or a glaze of ice at best in our neck of the
woods. Otherwise the main impact of this low will be increasing
clouds across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today
into tonight.

Highs today in the upper 20s to low 30s, very similar to yesterday.
Overnight lows ranging from the single digits above zero in northern
Minnesota to the teens to low 20s in northwest Wisconsin.

Following the main stacked low, a mid-level trough axis swings
across the upper Midwest from northwest to southeast late tonight
into Tuesday. This may lead to another round of clouds and perhaps a
few flurries or drizzle (GEM-Regional is particularly aggressive
about precip possibilities), but think the lack of mid-level
moisture will result in just some clouds with this weak wave on
Tuesday morning with sunny skies prevailing by the afternoon.
Temperatures remaining mild, with highs again in the upper 20s to
mid 30s - around 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Model differences begin Tuesday night. Models agree that a short
wave trof will be moving through southern Canada. However, they
disagree on the amount of moisture available and its impacts on the
northern tier of the forecast area. Models do agree on keeping any
precipitation north of the border. Warm air advection is underway
Tuesday night and continues on Wednesday. Another, stronger short
wave follows quickly behind the aforementioned one. Again, models
disagree on the location of the embedded impulse and the amount of
moisture to work with. The NAM is the most aggressive and furthest
south with precipitation. It will be ignored and a compromise
solution is used resulting in a dry forecast. A southwest flow
becomes engaged over the region Wednesday night through Thursday
night. The warm air continues to pump into the region with 850mb
temps from 8C to 11C, depending on the model. A very dry atmosphere
remains in place. Friday through Sunday finds the southerly flow
persisting over the region. However, some colder air is being
advected into the area as well. A fairly strong short wave trof will
lift from the Texas panhandle Friday, into the Northern Plains
Saturday night where it closes off into a cut off low. On Sunday it
tracks into the Northern Plains and opens into a trof. Amongst all
this activity aloft, a surface low will accompany this feature. The
surface low is vertically stacked with the upper low and opens into
a trof on Sunday. Periods of precipitation will accompany these
features as they affect the forecast area. Due to the warmer temps,
there will be batches of rain during the day, mixing at times with
snow, before changing to snow at night. Amounts of rain and snow are
in question this far in advance of the system and confidence is low
due to model variability.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Clear skies and mainly afternoon VFR conditions will quickly
become MVFR and IFR with fog and very low ceilings after 00Z. This
should last well after 12Z tomorrow. KHYR is the only location
that may escape most of the overnight fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  13  30  19 /   0   0   0   0
INL  25   2  27  18 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  30  13  28  15 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  17  35  18 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  34  17  33  21 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...CLC



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