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000
FXUS63 KDLH 051220 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
620 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WERE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL DUE LAKE
PROCESSES...AND WE WILL ADD A MENTION THIS MORNING. THE LACK OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF WAA WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THICKEN TODAY. WE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP. WE DELAYED THE PRECIP UNTIL EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NORTHWEST
AREA. THE HIGHER RES WRF AND NAM AGREE IN THE SLOWER EVOLUTION.
STRONG 850MB WAA WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND
WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE BORDER REGION. PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW
THIS EVENING...THEN COULD MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW. HOWEVER...A LLJ TO 40KT WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR ALOFT. WE
ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT MOVING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WITH TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. WE THINK THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH AND DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
AROUND AN INCH. FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION.

THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM IN
BETTER AGREEMENT. WE WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN SHOULD BE
FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH...HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. WE HAVE A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THURSDAY AS WELL
WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...TO 15 TO
23 ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS WE SHOULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND
CLOUDS INCREASE. WE HAVE A GRADIENT FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EAST. WE INCREASED
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 0 TO +5. IF
WE SEE LESS CLOUDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO
BE BUMPED A FEW MORE DEGREES. WE HAVE THEM FROM 25 TO 35 AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES
SENDS SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MDL THERMAL FIELDS. AS A RESULT
PTYPE ISSUES AND FCST MIN/MAX TEMPS BECOME LESS CONFIDENT. FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY. INITIAL SURVEY
OF MDL SNDGS/LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS SHOWS TRANSITION TO SOME TYPE OF
ZL/S MIX OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SRN THIRD OF CWA. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF FLOW SHOULD LIMIT QPF AS PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN MDL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING POSITIONING OF NEXT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL SHORTWAVES. POPS RETURN INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH SUN NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTH MON/TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE MONDAY
WITH LOW LVL WARMING. EC MUCH HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS OVER SRN CWA WITH
40S QUITE COMMON. NOT READY TO ADJUST THAT HIGH YET BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WARMING HAVE USED A
MORE GENERIC TREATMENT OF PTYPES AT THIS POINT WITH A DIURNAL
TRANSITION TO RAINS/NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. EC/GFS MAINTAIN THEIR
THERMAL DIFFERENCES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EC MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LVL WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

LARGE SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LOWER LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WILL
AFFECT NORTH SHORE AND MAY TRY TO ADVECT TOWARDS KHIB. CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER
NRN TERMINALS AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KBRD/KDLH. PTYPES MAY BE
MIXED NEAR KDLH/KBRD. LLWS POSSIBLE AT 3 NRN TERMINALS AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT.







&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14   3  30  20 /  40  20  20  50
INL  19  12  31  13 /  20  70  60  60
BRD  22  14  34  20 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  22   0  33  22 /   0  10  10  50
ASX  17   0  33  22 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON