Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A progressive pattern across North America will result in a weak
area of low pressure moving across the upper Midwest and then a high
building across the northern Plains today into tomorrow. In the warm
sector of the low today temperatures will be mild with dew points in
the low to mid 50s along the MN/WI border and into northwest
Wisconsin in the southerly flow ahead of a surface low deepening over
the eastern Dakotas today. Rain chances will be minimal across the
Northland given the warm frontal zone will be well to the north of
the international border, but expect abundant cloud cover as low-
level stratus persists while mid/high level clouds move across the
region aloft. Best chance for rain today will be along the North
Shore into the MN Arrowhead during a period of low level convergence
this afternoon as the low/sfc trough axis moves across. Highs in the
upper 40s across the tip of the Arrowhead, but otherwise in the mid
50s to mid 60s - feeling more like early October.

Overnight cloudy skies will persists in the northwest flow behind
the low. Expect winds to be breezy, especially across northeast
Minnesota where wind speeds around 10mph are expected. Showers
possible north of the Iron Range as the cooler air aloft introduces
a bit of instability. Lows in the 40s.

Cooler Saturday but temperatures still on the mild side of normal.
Light northwest winds as high pressure will be building in from the
west through the day. With the progressive pattern in place, another
disturbance will move across the upper Mississippi river valley late
Saturday as a mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies
Saturday resulting in a chance for showers to parts of the Northland
- mainly from Brainerd to Lake Mille Lacs and south. Highs in the
mid 40s in northeast Minnesota to low 50s in northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The active weather pattern continues into next week. high pressure
will make a brief appearance Sunday. However, it will be quickly
followed by another low that tracks into the Dakotas Sunday night,
then translates across the Northland Monday into Tuesday. This low
will place the forecast area in the warm sector with gusty southerly
winds Monday. The warm air advection will lead to another day of
above normal temperatures with highs reaching the 50s to low 60s.

Upper level ridging returns for mid week, along with temperatures
near to a few degrees above seasonable normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

An area of low pressure near FAR at the start of the forecast will
gradually move across the Minnesota terminals by this evening and
northwest Wisconsin tonight. This system will drag a weak cold
front past the terminals. A southerly wind will occur ahead of the
front, then switch to the northwest behind the front. Some fog and
MVFR/IFR conditions will be found at the outset of the forecast at
DLH/HIB/INL. However, VFR is expected at BRD/HYR this afternoon.
After 06Z, look for MVFR ceilings to affect the terminals with fog
forming and light winds. The fog should dissipate by 15Z/29.


DLH  57  45  49  34 /  10  10  20  10
INL  53  40  44  28 /  40  30  20  10
BRD  63  45  49  32 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  61  47  52  35 /  10  10  20  10
ASX  61  48  52  41 /  20  10  20  10




LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...GSF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.