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000
FXUS63 KDLH 102350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
550 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ND AT 19Z WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SOUTHERN
MN BY 06Z AND REACH NORTHERN IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY IMPACT
THIS WILL HAVE ON THE FA TONIGHT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS INITIALLY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA AND THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...THE COLD AIR MASS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND JUST
ENOUGH WIND TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ALONG BAYFIELD COUNTY FROM NEAR PORT WING TO
THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT. HAVE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. A WLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
THE BULK OF THE LES BANDS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH
SHORE. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THIS GENERAL FLOW OVER LS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE TIP OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA TO THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS. HAVE POPS ALIGNED TO MATCH THIS THINKING. ELSEWHERE...A
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WITH SFC RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. SAME COLD AIR MASS AND ENOUGH WIND...WILL KEEP THE
HEADLINES GOING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A 5 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE REALLY COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING LIGHT AND CLOUD TO THE SW AND S
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A
BIT...BUT FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.

THE NORTHLAND SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD
AND INCREASING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NW WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY WHEN NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH COULD SET
UP OVER THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. I INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. COLDER
WEATHER WILL THEN LIKELY RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING INVERTED TROUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THERE WILL BE SOME VERY PATCHY SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE
VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR CIGS BUT THOSE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND VERY SPOTTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -20  -3 -15  10 /  10   0  10  10
INL -23  -6 -25   7 /  10   0   0  10
BRD -20  -3 -13  15 /  10   0  20  10
HYR -18  -3 -15  13 /  10   0  20  10
ASX -16  -1 -10  13 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP