Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310037 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$




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