Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 272053
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. WITH AN ELONGATED MIXING BOUNDARY (EVIDENCED
ON FCST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS) LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING... GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL LESSEN EARLY THURS MORNING BUT MAY
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0
INL  28  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  51  34  58 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  31  51  31  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  29  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142-143-
     146-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN


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